000  
FXUS63 KEAX 061750  
AFDEAX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO  
1250 PM CDT MON OCT 6 2025  
   
KEY MESSAGES  
 
- SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LINGER ACROSS FAR NW MO AND NE KS  
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. AN ISOLATED STRONG STORM WITH GUSTY  
WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE. RAIN RATES LOOK TO BE LOW  
ENOUGH TO CURTAIL FLOODING CONCERNS.  
 
- STORMS STAY NW OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR MOST OF THE DAY. SOME  
ISOLATED STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS CENTRAL MO. A FEW OF THESE  
STORMS COULD BE STRONG WITH SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS.  
 
- STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE EASTWARD THIS EVENING AND THROUGH  
THE OVERNIGHT. COVERAGE LOOKS TO BECOME MORE SCATTERED,  
ESPECIALLY BY DAYBREAK TUESDAY.  
 
- MORE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THIS WEEK BEFORE WARMING  
BACK ABOVE AVERAGE NEXT WEEKEND.  
 
 
   
DISCUSSION  
 
ISSUED AT 227 AM CDT MON OCT 6 2025  
 
AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS SLOWLY MAKING ITS WAY INTO  
FAR NE KS AND NW MO. THE SURFACE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DETACH FROM  
THE PARENT BOUNDARY AND RACE AHEAD OF THE STORMS MAKING THEM BECOME  
MORE ELEVATED. THIS WILL RESULT IN A LESS ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE  
ENVIRONMENT. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MAINTAINED BY PASSING  
SHORTWAVES AND CVA ALOFT AS WELL AS THE 850MB FRONT WHICH IS  
EXPECTED TO PROGRESS MUCH MORE SLOWLY. OBS AND CAMS CONTINUE TO SHOW  
A REASONABLE FAVORABLE CONVECTIVE ENVIRONMENT WITH A NARROW BAND OF  
CAPE OF 500-1000 J/KG ALONG THE LINE. THIS COULD LEAD TO SOME  
EMBEDDED STRONGER STORMS; HOWEVER, THAT FAVORABILITY IS WANING. AS  
THE SURFACE FRONT MOVES INTO MISSOURI, THE MUCAPE DISPERSES BECOMING  
MORE DILUTED YIELDING ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO KEEP STORMS GOING, BUT  
NOT ENOUGH FOR DEEP CONVECTION.  
 
THE UPPER LEVEL FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL OUT ACROSS NE MO AND NE  
KS RESIDING THERE FOR MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT. WITH THE GENERAL  
WEAKENING OF SUBSTANTIAL LIFT OVER THE AREA, RAIN RATES LOOKS TO  
REMAIN RELATIVELY BENIGN ENOUGH TO MITIGATE MOST FLOODING CONCERNS  
TO JUST POOLING DUE TO EXCESSIVE RUNOFF. AS THE NOCTURNAL LLJ  
WEAKENS AFTER DAYBREAK, STORM COVERAGE BECOMES MORE SCATTERED  
BRINGING SOME BREAKS IN THE PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE MORNING.  
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM ALONG THE  
SURFACE FRONT WHICH BY MIDDAY SHOULD BE MAKING IT EAST OF THE I-35  
CORRIDOR.  
 
THE MOVING OF THIS FRONT ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY ALSO SETS  
UP A DICHOTOMY IN HIGH TEMPERATURES. RAIN COOLED AREAS OF NW MO AND  
NE KS MIGHT STRUGGLE TO REACH 70 DEGREES WHEREAS AREAS ACROSS  
CENTRAL MO FLIRT WITH THE 90S. THIS WARM SECTOR ACROSS MO COULD ALSO  
POSE A POTENTIAL SEVERE WEATHER THREAT AS THE FRONT WORKS ITS WAY  
INTO THAT REGION LATER IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. FORTUNATELY, CAPE  
AND SHEAR VALUES ARE OVERALL FAIRLY LOW; HOWEVER, THERE ARE SOME  
POCKETS OF 20+ KNOT SHEAR AND 1000+ J/KG CAPE WHICH COULD ENTICE THE  
DEVELOPMENT OF AN ISOLATED STRONG STORM WITH GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL  
HAIL. THE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT REMAINS MARGINAL.  
 
A SECONDARY SURFACE COLD FRONT DEVELOPS COLOCATED WITH THE UPPER  
LEVEL BOUNDARIES AND MIGRATES ITS WAY INTO THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT.  
THIS WHOLESALE SHIFT PUSHES SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE  
REGION LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY WHICH IS WHEN AREAS  
ALONG AND EAST OF I-35 WILL SEE THEIR HIGHEST CHANCES FOR  
PRECIPITATION. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LINGER THROUGH  
TUESDAY AFTERNOON; HOWEVER, COOLER, MORE STABLE BEHIND THE FRONT  
EVENTUALLY MOVES IN DISSIPATING STORMS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS.  
BY TUESDAY EVENING, MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ENVELOPE THE AREA.  
HIGHS TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY START IN THE (RAIN COOLED) UPPER 60S  
ELEVATING TOT HE MID TO UPPER 70S. BY THE END OF THE WEEK,  
SOUTHERLY MIDLEVEL FLOW OPENS BACK UP LIFTING HIGHS BACK INTO  
THE 80S.  
 
 
   
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/  
 
ISSUED AT 1244 PM CDT MON OCT 6 2025  
 
ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS EXPECTED MAINLY FOR  
EASTERN KS, WESTERN MO, AND NORTHEASTERN MO WITH A COLD FRONT  
PUSHING THROUGH THE AREA. LATER THIS EVENING, PRECIP CHANCES  
WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD AND WINDS WILL SHIFT OUT OF THE  
NORTH. A FEW WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 15-18 KTS CAN ALSO BE  
ANTICIPATED WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE. ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS  
AND STORMS POSSIBLE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING. HOWEVER,  
CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN EXACT TIMING AND LOCATION.  
 
 
   
EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES  
 
MO...NONE.  
KS...NONE.  
 
 
 
 
 
DISCUSSION...PESEL  
AVIATION...COLLIER  
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