165  
FXUS63 KEAX 090006  
AFDEAX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO  
706 PM CDT WED OCT 8 2025  
   
KEY MESSAGES  
 
- TEMPERATURES SLOWLY WARM OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH A FEW LOCATIONS  
IN WESTERN MO REACHING THE LOW 80S BY FRIDAY. HIGHS IN THE  
80S BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD BY SUNDAY.  
 
- A FEW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS STARTING FRIDAY  
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. NO SEVERE ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.  
 
 
   
DISCUSSION  
 
ISSUED AT 141 PM CDT WED OCT 8 2025  
 
A PLEASANT, FALL-LIKE DAY FOR TODAY WITH RIDGING JUST UPSTREAM OF  
THE AREA IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS. AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE  
HAS MADE ITS WAY EAST TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. AS A RESULT,  
OUR WINDS HAVE REORIENTED TO A MORE EASTERLY DIRECTION. WITH MID TO  
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING APPROACHING THE AREA, HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE  
A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY. HIGHS FOR TODAY WILL BE IN THE  
UPPER 60S TO MID 70S. THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT AS SKIES REMAIN  
MOSTLY CLEAR, EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL ALLOW MORNING LOWS  
TO SINK INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S.  
 
OUR WARMING TREND CONTINUES INTO TOMORROW AS MID TO UPPER LEVEL  
RIDGING MOVES OVER THE AREA AND WINDS SHIFT TO THE SOUTH AS THE  
SURFACE HIGH PUSHES FARTHER TO OUR NORTHEAST. CONDITIONS OVERALL  
REMAIN QUIET THROUGH THE DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S. TRANSITIONING TO  
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO FRIDAY, A LOW AT H500 DESCENDING ON THE  
EASTERN SIDE OF THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE, OVER THE GREAT LAKES,  
WILL DEVELOP A SURFACE LOW. IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE SURFACE HIGH,  
THE SURFACE LOW WILL PUSH A WEAK COLD FRONT TOWARDS THE AREA. OUT  
AHEAD OF THE SURFACE FRONT, SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL RESULT IN  
ISENTROPIC ASCENT AT THE 300K LEVEL. THIS, COLLOCATED WITH THE  
INCREASED MOISTURE OF A LOW-LEVEL JET THAT INTENSIFIES OVER EASTERN  
KS AND WESTERN MO WILL YIELD PRECIPITATION CHANCES (15-30%) MAINLY  
FOR AREAS NORTH OF I-70 DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO FRIDAY. WITH  
25-35 KTS OF SHEAR AND THE INCREASED MOISTURE FROM THE LOW-LEVEL  
JET, THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS COULD LINGER INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON  
HOURS. EVEN STILL, NO SEVERE WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED GIVEN THE VERY  
WEAK INSTABILITY AND STILL LIMITED MOISTURE DESPITE THE EFFORTS OF  
THE LOW-LEVEL JET. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CLEAR OUT LEAVING FRIDAY  
AFTERNOON AND EVENING MOSTLY DRY AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE  
AREA. AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES, HIGHS FOR FRIDAY WILL CONTINUE TO WARM  
WITH MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGING REMAINING DOMINANT OVER THE AREA,  
RANGING IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S. HOWEVER, THERE IS SOME  
UNCERTAINTY IN HIGH TEMPERATURES DEPENDING ON HOW CLOUD COVERAGE  
CLEARS OUT AND OUR ABILITY TO MIX WARMER TEMPERATURES TO THE  
SURFACE. FOR NOW, THE NBM SEEMS FAIRLY CONFIDENT IN TEMPERATURES  
REACHING THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S GIVEN THE SMALL TEMPERATURE  
SPREADS. THIS IS LIKELY DUE TO HOW WEAK THIS SYSTEM APPEARS TO BE  
VERSUS THE IMPACT OF THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE.  
 
ANY LINGERING EFFECTS OF THE COLD FRONT WILL BE QUICKLY MUTED AS  
WINDS SHIFT OUT OF THE EAST BY SATURDAY MORNING IN RESPONSE TO A  
DEEPENING SURFACE LOW EMERGING OUT OF EASTERN CO. THROUGH THE DAY  
SATURDAY, WINDS REMAIN OUT OF THE EAST WITH H500 VORT MAXIMA MOVING  
THROUGH THE AREA COLLOCATED WITH A SWATHE OF MOISTURE. THIS WILL  
RESULT IN SLIGHTLY INCREASED CLOUD COVERAGE FOR SATURDAY KEEPING  
TEMPERATURES FAIRLY SIMILAR TO FRIDAY. SUNDAY, WINDS SHIFT OUT OF  
THE SOUTH WITH THE APPROACHING SURFACE LOW RESULTING IN THE WARMEST  
TEMPERATURES OF THE WEEK. HIGHS FOR SUNDAY ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE  
80S AREA-WIDE.  
 
FOR THE START OF EARLY NEXT WEEK, BETTER PRECIP CHANCES ARRIVE AS  
THE SURFACE LOW DRAGS ITS COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA. PRECIP  
CHANCES (20-30%) PERSIST THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK AS A  
MID TO UPPER LEVEL LOW RIDING ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST EJECTS  
ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVES THROUGH THE FLOW.  
 
 
   
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/  
 
ISSUED AT 633 PM CDT WED OCT 8 2025  
 
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD, WITH SOME HIGH  
LEVEL CLOUDS HANGING AROUND THIS EVENING AND A BROKEN CLOUD DECK  
AROUND 7 KFT LIKELY BETWEEN ROUGHLY 10Z AND 20Z THURSDAY. LIGHT  
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS SHOULD PERSIST.  
 
 
   
EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES  
 
MO...NONE.  
KS...NONE.  
 
 
 
 
 
DISCUSSION...COLLIER  
AVIATION...BMW  
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