390
FXUS63 KEAX 221911
AFDEAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
211 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- EARLY MORNING LOWS IN THE 30S WILL LIKELY RESULT IN AREAS OF FROST
PRIMARILY FOR LOCATIONS NORTH OF HWY-36. SENSITIVE VEGETATION WILL
NEED TO BE PROTECTED.
- SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES ARRIVE FRIDAY AND LINGER INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 209 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2025
A MOSTLY UNEVENTFUL DAY, WEATHER-WISE, EXPECTED WITH MID TO UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING ENTERING THE GREAT PLAINS AND A CUT-OFF LOW JUST OFF
THE COAST OF SOUTHERN CA. AT THE SURFACE, A HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
SOUTHERN U.S., NEAR THE LA/AL BORDER, WILL BE THE MAIN WEATHER
DRIVER FOR TODAY. AS A RESULT, WINDS WILL REMAIN WEAK AND OUT OF THE
WEST/NORTHWEST UNDERNEATH CLEAR SKIES. HIGHS TODAY WILL MOSTLY RANGE
FROM THE LOW 60S TO LOW 70S. THIS EVENING, AS WE TRANSITION INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS, ANOTHER SURFACE HIGH WILL DESCEND FROM THE NORTHERN
GREAT PLAINS REORIENTING OUR WINDS MORE NORTHERLY. THIS, COUPLED
WITH THE WEAKER WINDS (COMPARED TO YESTERDAY), AND CLEAR SKIES WILL
SET THE STAGE FOR EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL COOLING. EARLY MORNING LOWS
FOR THURSDAY WILL REACH THE 30S WITH THE KC METRO AREAS AROUND THE
LOW 40S. AS A RESULT THURSDAY MORNING'S FROST POTENTIAL WILL BE A
LITTLE MORE WIDESPREAD THAN THIS MORNING. AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF
HWY-36 WILL BE THE MOST FAVORABLE LOCATIONS FOR FROST, THEREFORE A
FROST ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THESE AREAS FROM 7-14Z THURSDAY
MORNING. COVERING SENSITIVE VEGETATION IS ADVISED. EXPECT THE REST
OF THURSDAY TO BE FAIRLY SIMILAR TO TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S TO
LOW 70S.
BY FRIDAY, A STOUT MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH NEAR THE WESTERN
U.S./CANADA BORDER WILL HAVE NUDGED THE PREVIOUSLY-MENTIONED CUT-OFF
LOW NEAR SOUTHERN CA INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. AT THE SURFACE, A
LOW WILL DEVELOP NEAR NORTHERN TX. THE PARTNERING WARM FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO PUSH NORTH PROVIDING LIFT FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS DURING
THE PREDAWN HOURS OF FRIDAY MORNING. THE MOST LIKELY AREAS FOR
PRECIP APPEAR TO BE SOUTH OF I-70. EVEN WITH A DECENT AMOUNT OF
SHEAR, NO SEVERE WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED DURING THIS TIME GIVEN THE
LIMITED AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY. FOR NOW, A MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
FOR STRONGER STORMS SEEMS TO REMAIN TO OUR SOUTHWEST WHERE THERE
WILL BE MORE INSTABILITY AND LIFT. INCREASED MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL
YIELD PWATS ABOVE THE 90TH PERCENTILE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. IF WE
ARE ABLE TO DESTABILIZE MORE THAN GUIDANCE SUGGESTS AND/OR STORMS
BEGIN TO LINGER, A FEW AREAS NEAR THE SOUTHERN FRINGES (LINN, BATES,
AND HENRY COUNTIES) COULD SEE ISOLATED HEAVY DOWNPOURS. GIVEN THE
ANTECEDENT DRY CONDITIONS ANY FLOODING CONCERNS REMAIN VERY MINIMAL
AT THIS TIME. ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS LINGER INTO
THE WEEKEND AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES OVER THE AREA. THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY AS MODELS PROVIDE DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS REGARDING THE
TRACK OF THE SYSTEM. THIS WILL MAINLY AFFECT THE NORTHWARD EXTENT OF
PRECIP CHANCES IN OUR AREA.
ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS THE STOUT MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT NUDGED THE CUT-OFF
LOW MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TAKES ON A
NEGATIVE TILT INCREASING THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS EARLY NEXT WEEK. AS FOR TEMPERATURES, HIGHS STAY EITHER
AROUND OR BELOW NORMAL INTO THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER,
MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF PRECIP ADD UNCERTAINTY TO THE TEMPERATURE
FORECAST.
TAKING A LOOK JUST BEYOND THE FORECAST PERIOD, EXTENDED GUIDANCE HAS
BEEN CONSISTENT IN SHOWING ANOTHER STOUT MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
PRODUCING A STRONG WIND POTENTIAL FOR HALLOWEEN. AS A RESULT, THE
CPC (CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER) HAS ISSUED A SLIGHT RISK FOR HIGH
WINDS FOR OUR AREA. HOWEVER, GIVEN HOW FAR OUT THIS EVENT IS
THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FUTURE
MODEL RUNS TO SEE IF MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT WITH THIS THREAT.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1218 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED FOR THE DURATION OF THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS
AROUND 5-10 KTS OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST WILL PERSIST UNTIL THIS
EVENING. ONCE WE LOSE DAYTIME HEATING, WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT
AND VARIABLE.
EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MO...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR MOZ001>008-
011>017-020>025-032-033.
KS...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR KSZ025-102.
DISCUSSION...COLLIER
AVIATION...COLLIER
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