743
FXUS63 KEAX 231103
AFDEAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
603 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- CHILLY MORNING LOWS TODAY WITH AREAS OF FROST ACROSS NORTHERN MO.
- SCATTERED SHOWERS MOVE INTO THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT
AND SPREAD NORTHEAST THROUGHOUT THE DAY FRIDAY. MOST
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION WILL BE SOUTH OF THE MISSOURI RIVER
THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY.
- UNSETTLED WEATHER, WITH SCATTERED, OFF AND ON SHOWERS, LINGER
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2025
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE
MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. OBSERVATIONS
SHOW DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S AND TEMPERATURES
HAVE ALREADY DROPPED INTO THE 30S ACROSS NORTHERN MO AND
NORTHEASTERN KS. MORNING LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 30S WILL LEAD TO
AREAS OF FROST THROUGHOUT THE AREA, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE
URBAN AND CLOSER SUBURBAN AREAS OF KANSAS CITY. ZOOMING OUT,
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE MAIN UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
WEST OF THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. AS THIS WAVE TRACKS TO THE EAST
TODAY, SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE PLAINS. AN
EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE, WILL EJECT INTO THE PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON/
EVENING, LEADING TO THE INITIAL DEVELOPMENT OF PRECIPITATION TO
THE SOUTHWEST OF THE FORECAST AREA. AS THE LEADING SHORTWAVE
CONTINUES TO TRACK EAST DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS,
PRECIPITATION WILL SPREAD TO THE NORTHEAST, EVENTUALLY MOVING
INTO OUR SOUTHWESTERN ZONES AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. THIS WILL
GRADUALLY BUILD NORTHEAST FRIDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. THE
RATE AT WHICH PRECIPITATION SPREADS TO THE NORTHEAST WILL AT
LEAST PARTIALLY BE MODIFIED BY THE DRY AIR THAT HAS BEEN PRESENT
OVER THE AREA AND HOW QUICKLY(SLOWLY) THAT IS OVERCOME. AS A
RESULT, IT LOOKS LIKE MOST WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY WILL STAY ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA, GENERALLY SOUTH OF THE
MISSOURI RIVER, WITH MORE SCATTERED TO ISOLATED ACTIVITY FURTHER
NORTHEAST. IT'S ACTUALLY VERY POSSIBLE TO LIKELY THAT AREAS
NORTH OF HIGHWAY 136, ESPECIALLY INTO NORTH CENTRAL AND
NORTHEASTERN MO, SEE NO PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SYSTEM, AT LEAST
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WANE SATURDAY AS THE INITIAL SURGE OF MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LEAD SHORTWAVE SHIFTS EAST. BUT THE MAIN
SHORTWAVE, WHICH BY NOW HAS CUTOFF FROM THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW AND
UNDERCUT THE UPPER RIDGE, WILL MEANDER EASTWARD THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND LEADING TO UNSETTLED WEATHER
CONTINUING INTO SUNDAY. THE POINT OF EMPHASIS HERE IS THAT IT
WON'T BE A CONTINUOUS RAIN. BUT THERE WILL BE MULTIPLE PERIODS
OF SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND. FOR THE ENTIRE
EVENT, RAIN AMOUNTS BETWEEN AN INCH AND AN INCH AND HALF ARE
MOST LIKELY SOUTH OF PAOLA, KS TO CLINTON LINE WITH
PROGRESSIVELY LOWER AMOUNTS NORTHWARD AND LITTLE TO NO
PRECIPITATION ACROSS FAR NORTHERN AND NORTHEASTERN MO.
FOR NEXT WEEK, THE GFS HAS BACKED OFF ITS QUITE AGGRESSIVE TROUGH
MOVING THROUGH AND IS MORE IN LINE WITH THE ECMWF AND ITS ENSEMBLE
MEAN. AS A RESULT, IT LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS, POSSIBLY
A FEW STORMS, MOVES THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT/
EARLY TUESDAY WITH DRIER CONDITIONS BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 603 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2025
OUTSIDE OF SOME STEAM FOG AT STJ, VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE DAY AND LIKELY THROUGH THE ENTIRE FORECAST. RAINFALL
SPREADS NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE AREA TONIGHT AND HAVE ADDED SOME
MENTION TO IXD AT 09Z. THE REST OF TERMINALS MAY BE CLOSER TO
12Z AND LATER AS THE AREA OF RAIN SPREADS NORTHEAST.
EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MO...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR MOZ001>008-
011>017-020>025-032-033.
KS...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR KSZ025-102.
DISCUSSION...CDB
AVIATION...CDB
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