390
FXUS63 KEAX 232049
AFDEAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
349 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- INCREASING CLOUD COVER LATE TONIGHT
- RAIN SHOWERS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY; ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE
- MULTIPLE ACTIVE WEATHER PERIODS NEXT WEEK
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 349 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2025
DEEP CLOSED-LOW SYSTEM OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES GRADUALLY MOVES
EASTWARD. MID-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS IS MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
WITH ANOTHER SHORT-WAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST. THIS PATTERN WILL SHIFT THE SURFACE ANTI-CYCLONE ACROSS THE
REGION EASTWARD, WHILE ALSO ALLOWING A SURFACE LOW TO DEVELOP ACROSS
THE FRONT RANGE AND HIGH PLAINS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE
REMAINDER OF THE EVENING SHOULD REMAIN CLEAR. CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO
INCREASE OVERNIGHT AS THE SYSTEM OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST
SWITCHES LOW-LEVEL FLOW TO SOUTHERLY DIRECTION AND BEGINS TO PUSH A
WARM FRONT ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS INTO THE LOWER MISSOURI RIVER
VALLEY. THE RESULTANT ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL INCREASE CLOUD COVER
LATE OVERNIGHT INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF FRIDAY. SOME OF THIS
CLOUD COVER CAN ALREADY BE SEEN ON GOES SATELLITE IMAGERY OVER
WESTERN KANSAS. BOUNDARY LAYER WILL BE QUITE DRY FROM THE RECENT DRY
CONDITIONS, BUT GRADUAL LIFT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING THE SHORT-WAVE
TROUGH SHOULD EVENTUALLY PROVIDE ENOUGH MOISTURE TRANSPORT,
PRODUCING SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS BY LATE FRIDAY MORNING INTO THE
EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS, WITH THE WARM FRONT CONTINUING TO PUSH
NORTHEAST. A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AND RUMBLES OF THUNDER
CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT. HOWEVER, MOST MODEL GUIDANCE HAS
PULLED BACK ON THUNDER PROBABILITIES, MAINLY DUE TO THE LACK OF
INSTABILITY. HREF MUCAPE MEAN IS UNDER 300 J/KG FOR MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER, LARGE SCALE ISENTROPIC ASCENT SHOULD BE ABLE
TO PRODUCE MULTIPLE OF ROUNDS OF RAIN SHOWERS. GREATEST CHANCES WILL
COME IN THE MIDDLE TO LATE AFTERNOON AS THE SURFACE LOW TOWARD THE
PANHANDLE REGION DEEPENS AND INCREASED CONVERGENCE INTO THE LOWER
MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY. HREF PROBABILITY MATCHED MEAN VALUES SUGGEST
SOME AREAS, ESPECIALLY FAR WESTERN MISSOURI AND EASTERN KANSAS COULD
SEE AROUND 0.50 INCHES, WITH A WIDESPREAD 0.10-0.30 INCHES THROUGH
FRIDAY EVENING. BY SATURDAY, DETERMINISTIC SOLUTIONS ARE DEPICTING A
500MB WAVE TO CLOSE UP WHILE LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD. THIS INCREASES
DCVA FROM EASTERN KANSAS INTO THE MID-MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY.
BROAD SCALE LIFT SHOULD INCREASE, AS WELL INCREASED CONVERGENCE AS
THIS FEATURE MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. RAIN SHOWERS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE, BUT SIGNALS FOR INSTABILITY REMAIN RATHER WEAK. THE
BETTER SETUP BOTH KINEMATICALLY AND THERMODYNAMICALLY REMAINS SOUTH
OF INTERSTATE 44 AND INTO THE OZARKS REGION. THEREFORE, NO SEVERE
STORMS ARE EXPECTED. BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND, AREAS ALONG AND
SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70 MAY SEE RAINFALL TOTALS NEAR 1.00 INCH, BUT
PROBABILITIES FOR THE IMMEDIATE KC METRO JUST GENERALLY UNDER 1.00
INCH.
NEXT WEEK, A MID-LEVEL RIDGE SETS UP OVER THE WEST COAST, ACTIVE
FLOW OVER WESTERN CANADA IS EXPECTED TO EJECT MULTIPLE TROUGHS INTO
THE CENTRAL CONUS. SOME OF THESE SHORT-WAVES WILL HAVE ROBUST DCVA
AS WE ARE STARTING TO SEE STRONGER MID AND UPPER-LEVEL FLOW ONCE
AGAIN. TIMING FOR ANY SPECIFIC SHORT-WAVE IS HARD TO PINPOINT, BUT
THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR A STRONG SURFACE CYCLONE OR TWO. IF
CONDITIONS LINE UP CORRECTLY, ACTIVE THUNDERSTORMS COULD BECOME
POSSIBLE. PERIODS OF STRONG GRADIENT WINDS NOT ASSOCIATED WITH
PRECIPITATION ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE UP AND DOWN,
WITH HIGHS BETWEEN THE MID 50S TO UPPER 60S.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1224 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2025
MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. WARM
FRONT STARTS TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD LATE TONIGHT INCREASING CLOUD
COVER. EXPECTING MVFR CEILINGS BY LATE MORNING FRIDAY, WITH
SHOWERS TO FOLLOW IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON.
EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
DISCUSSION...KRULL
AVIATION...KRULL
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