308
FXUS63 KEAX 241129
AFDEAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
629 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2025
KEY MESSAGES
* PERIODS OF RAIN EXPECTED AT LEAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. LOCATIONS SOUTH OF I-70 COULD SEE UPWARDS OF 0.50" OF
RAIN BY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
* TEMPERATURES REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MUCH OF THE NEXT
WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 316 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2025
UPPER TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION IS LOCATED
LARGELY NORTH OF THE SOUTHERN BRANCH OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET. THIS
WILL LEAD TO A FAIRLY SLOW PROGRESSION OF THE SYSTEM WHICH WILL
BRING PERIODIC CHANCES OF RAIN TO THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
00Z SOUNDING FROM TOP SHOWED A FAIRLY DRY TROPOSPHERE WITH JUST
OVER 0.50" OF PRECIPITABLE WATER. SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH ARE DRAWING MOISTURE NORTHWARD, AND PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO DOUBLE BY 12Z THIS MORNING ACROSS
EASTERN KANSAS INTO WESTERN MISSOURI. HAVE SEEN A FEW SPOKES OF
ISENTROPIC LIFT LEAD TO LIGHT RETURNS ON THE RADAR THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT, BUT WILL BE FIGHTING A FAIR AMOUNT OF DRY AIR IN THE
SUB-CLOUD LAYER. LIFT IN THE 295-300K LAYER REMAINS MOST
CONCENTRATED MAINLY SOUTH AND WEST OF A LINE FROM ST JOE MO TO
BOONEVILLE MO. WITH DRY AIR REMAINING TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF
THIS LINE, TRIED TO CONCENTRATE POPS AND PRECIP AMOUNTS SOUTH.
THE LIFT APPEARS TO WEAKEN SOME THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS
TONIGHT, AND COULD LARGELY SEE A BREAK IN ACCUMULATING
PRECIPITATION OR A TRANSITION TO DRIZZLE IF SATURATION REMAINS
DEEP ENOUGH. CLOUDS AND LIGHT PRECIPITATION SHOULD KEEP
TEMPERATURES DOWN THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY, AND HAVE WARMEST
CONDITIONS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL MISSOURI WHERE DRY AIR IS MOST
LIKELY TO WIN OUT.
ISENTROPIC LIFT REORIENTS TONIGHT MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY
50 AND FOCUSED POPS/QPF IN THOSE LOCATIONS. LIFT CONTINUES TO FAVOR
THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA (LOCATIONS MAINLY SOUTH OF I-70 INTO
SATURDAY) AS THE STACKED UPPER LEVEL LOW MAKES ITS WAY ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. BY SUNDAY MORNING THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE
CENTERED ALONG THE OKLAHOMA/ARKANSAS BORDER, STILL CREATING THE
POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION. INSTABILITY
LOOKS TO BE VERY LIMITED TO LESS THAN A HUNDRED J/KG OF
ELEVATED CAPE, LIMITING THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHTNING.
ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVES ACROSS THE PACIFIC NW ARE EXPECTED TO UNDERCUT
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE SLOW MOVING SYSTEM TO THE
SOUTH. THIS COULD KEEP PERIODIC RAIN CHANCES AROUND THROUGH MID-
WEEK, WHICH ARE WELL NEEDED WITH MUCH OF THE REGION COVERED IN D0-D2
DROUGHT. WITH ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER AND PERIODIC CHANCES FOR RAIN,
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE RELATIVELY COOL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR,
ESPECIALLY ON THE DAY TIME HIGH TEMPERATURES.
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR DRIER CONDITIONS LATE WEEK AS RIDGE
DEVELOPS ACROSS THE WESTERN US, BUT MODELS DIFFER ON THE STRENGTH OF
THIS RIDGE AND NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES TO HANG ON ACROSS THE
CENTRAL US WITH POTENTIAL EMBEDDED WAVES.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 624 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2025
LIGHT RAIN BUILDING INTO THE REGION IS EXPECTED TO LEAD TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF MVFR CEILINGS, POTENTIALLY IFR CONDITIONS NEAR
AND ALONG THE I-29 CORRIDOR. THESE LOWER CEILINGS MAY EXPAND
AFTER 00Z EAST TOWARDS HIGHWAY 65. FARTHER EAST, CEILINGS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR. A LIGHT SOUTHEAST WIND IS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BT
AVIATION...BT
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