021
FXUS63 KEAX 250435
AFDEAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1135 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS TODAY
- ADDITIONAL RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND
- SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS NEXT WEEK
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2025
DEEP MID AND UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS STARTING TO DEVELOP INTO A CLOSED-
LOW SYSTEM AS ITS AXIS MOVES ACROSS THE FRONT RANGE AND HIGH PLAINS
THIS AFTERNOON. STRONG DCVA ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL ALLOW A
DEEPENING SURFACE CYCLONE TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE EASTERN
PLAINS AND LOWER MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AND THE APPROACH OF A WARM FRONT HAVE PROVIDED
OVERCAST SKIES FOR MOST OF THE DAY ALONG WITH PROMINENT ISENTROPIC
ASCENT, ALONG WITH PERIODS OF DECENT RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY. A FEW
AREAS HAVE BEEN ABLE TO RECORD A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH THUS FAR,
WHILE OTHER AREAS HAVE BEEN LIGHTER. THE SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS BEEN
BATTLING A DRY BOUNDARY LAYER, BUT WE SHOULD CONTINUE TO SEE
SATURATION WITH CONTINUED MOISTURE TRANSPORT HEADING INTO THE
EVENING. SATELLITE AND RADAR TRENDS OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS
HAVE SHOWN A DOWNWARD TREND, AND THE CAMS APPEAR TO BE PICKING UP
THIS FOR AT LEAST THE FIRST COUPLE OF HOURS OF THE EARLY EVENING. AS
THE JET STREAK MOVES OVER HEAD, WE SHOULD START TO SEE LIFT AS
STRONGER DCVA MOVES EASTWARD, AND INCREASING LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE
WITH THE APPROACH OF THE SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO REINVIGORATE
SHOWER ACTIVITY. THERE HAS NOT BEEN MUCH IN THE WAY OF INSTABILITY
GIVEN THE DENSE CLOUD COVER THAT HAS BEEN PRESENT BEFORE SUNRISE.
MOST CAMS EVEN WITH THE THETA-E TRANSPORT KEEP THE INSTABILITY AXIS
OVER CENTRAL KANSAS. THEREFORE, THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO
BE EXTREMELY LIMITED IF ANY THUNDER HAPPENS IN OUR FORECAST AREA AT
ALL. LIFT CONTINUES THROUGH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS THE LOW CLOSES UP
AND DOES NOT PROGRESS VERY QUICKLY. WE STILL APPEAR TO BE ON TRACK
FOR WEEKEND TOTAL RAIN BETWEEN 0.50-0.75 INCHES. HIGH QPF AXIS
REMAINS IN SOUTHERN MISSOURI FOR MOST OF THIS EVENT. ACTIVITY COULD
LINGER INTO MONDAY MORNING.
BY MONDAY AFTERNOON, CLOSED LOW SHOULD MOVE EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY PROVIDING A BREAK FROM RAIN AS A MODEST MID-LEVEL RIDGE
AXIS PASSES THROUGH. HOWEVER, THIS WILL LIKELY BE SHORT-LIVED AS
MULTIPLE SHORT-WAVES ARE PROGGED TO EJECT ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS
THIS WEEK. ENSEMBLE PROBABILITIES HOLD ONTO A 30-40 PERCENT CHANCE
FOR SOME FORM OF MEASURABLE RAIN FOR MULTIPLE DAYS NEXT WEEK. THERE
IS POTENTIAL FOR ONE OR TWO OF THESE WAVES TO PRODUCE A STRONGER
SURFACE CYCLONE, WHICH COULD BRING ROBUST PRECIPITATION ACTIVITY,
ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS NOT ASSOCIATED WITH RAIN OR STORMS.
TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S, WITH
CLOUD COVER KEEPING TEMPERATURES GENERALLY BELOW AVERAGE FOR THE END
OF OCTOBER.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1135 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2025
MVFR CIGS WILL PREVAIL THRU THE PD. TWO PERIODS OF LIGHT SHOWERS
ARE EXPECTED DURG THIS TAF CYCLE...THE FIRST IS EXPECTED BTN
11Z-13Z TIL 20Z WITH THE SECOND ROUND EXPECTED FROM 23Z-00Z THRU
THE END OF THE TAF PD. VIS MAY BE REDUCED TO 5SM-6SM IN LGT
SHRA. WINDS THRU THE PD WILL BE OUT OF THE ESE/E BTN 6-12KTS.
EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
DISCUSSION...KRULL
AVIATION...73
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