501
FXUS63 KEAX 251743
AFDEAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1243 PM CDT SAT OCT 25 2025
KEY MESSAGES
* FAIRLY CLOUDY WEEK AHEAD WITH PERIODIC CHANCES OF LIGHT RAIN.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO LARGELY REMAIN BELOW NORMAL, MOST
NOTICEABLY ON DAY TIME HIGHS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 337 AM CDT SAT OCT 25 2025
BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO PINWHEEL ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. AS OF 08Z, THIS SYSTEM WAS CENTERED ACROSS THE
PANHANDLE OF OKLAHOMA. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO INCH ACROSS
THE STATE OF OKLAHOMA IN THE NEXT DAY OR SO. BROAD, UNFOCUSED
LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION IS EXPECTED TO LEAD TO WEAK
ISENTROPIC LIFT EXPANDING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION TODAY.
CURRENT SURFACE DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS OF 10-15 DEGREES F ARE
INDICATIVE OF THE DRY AIR THAT HAS TO BE OVERCOME AS DYNAMICS
INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION. HAVE FOLLOWED ISENTROPIC LIFT ON THE
295-300K SURFACE IN DRAWING POPS TODAY THOUGH TONIGHT, BUT WAS
CONCIOUS OF THE NEAR SURFACE DRY LAYER THAT WILL LIKELY EAT AWAY
AT THE PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE
DEVELOPING PRECIPITATION SHIELD. LIFT INCREASES LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT, WHICH WILL LIKELY LEAD TO SLIGHTLY
HIGHER QPF AMOUNTS TONIGHT AS THE ISENTROPIC LIFT SHIFTS
NORTHWARD TOWARDS HIGHWAY 36. INSTABILITY CONTINUES TO LOOK
LIMITED TO NON-EXISTANT/ SO AM EXPECTING LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE
EVENT THROUGHOUT THE DAY INTO TONIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP THE
DIURNAL CURVE MUTED WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING IN THE 50S.
POTENTIAL DEEP SATURATION FROM THE SURFACE TO 600 MB LINGERS SUNDAY
ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-70. WHILE THE THE ISENTROPIC LIFT DWINDLES,
COULD STILL SEE POCKETS OF DRIZZLE OR LIGHT RAIN THROUGHOUT THE DAY
MOST PREVALENT SOUTH OF I-70. WITH EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER,
TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN LARGELY REMAIN IN THE 50S, THOUGH THE
DRIER AIR IN NORTH CENTRAL MISSOURI MAY ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM
SLIGHTLY MORE TOWARDS 60 F.
TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA THIS MORNING IS EXPECTED TO BUILD
INTO THE PACIFIC NW THIS WEEKEND. SHORT WAVES ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS SYSTEM MAY TRY TO DRIFT SOUTHEAST IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW
POTENTIALLY LEADING TO ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION MONDAY NIGHT
INTO AT LEAST MID-WEEK. MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE TRENDING TOWARDS A
DEEPENING CUT OFF LOW DEVELOPING IN THE CENTRAL US MID-WEEK,
WHICH COULD KEEP THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AROUND THROUGH THURSDAY.
LREF ENSEMBLE PROBABILITIES OF MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION HAVE
INCREASED TO 20-40 PERCENT (GREATEST IN CENTRAL/EASTERN
MISSOURI), THOUGH THIS IDEA IS NOT CURRENTLY REPRESENTED IN THE
FORECAST.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1238 PM CDT SAT OCT 25 2025
VARYING VFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS LINGERING AROUND WITH GRADUALLY
APPROACHING SHOWERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST. VISIBILITIES COULD BE
TEMPORARILY REDUCED WITH MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF LIGHT RAIN THROUGH
THE EVENING. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND OUT OF THE EAST.
EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BT
AVIATION...COLLIER
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