167
FXUS63 KEAX 252308
AFDEAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
608 PM CDT SAT OCT 25 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- PERIODIC CHANCES OF LIGHT RAIN LINGER TODAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO MOSTLY STAY BELOW NORMAL THIS
UPCOMING WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 120 PM CDT SAT OCT 25 2025
EXPECT THE REST OF TODAY TO BE MOSTLY COOL AND DREARY WITH SPORADIC
CHANCES FOR LIGHT SHOWERS PRIMARILY SOUTH OF I-70. A MID TO UPPER
LEVEL LOW REMAINS JUST TO THE SOUTHWEST OF OUR AREA NEAR NORTHERN
TX/OK PANHANDLE. AT THE SURFACE, A WEAK LOW TO OUR SOUTHWEST KEEPS
OUR WINDS OUT OF THE WEST/SOUTHWEST. INCREASED MOISTURE TRANSPORT
FROM THE GULF COUPLED WITH SOME ISENTROPIC ASCENT AT THE 295 K
SURFACE HAS PROVIDED LIFT FOR A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS IN OUR AREA
(EASTERN KS/WESTERN MO, SOUTH OF I-70). A QUICK PEAK AT THE HI-RES
MODELS SUGGESTS THESE SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK TO THE
NORTH/NORTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY. SO FAR, THESE SHOWERS HAVE NOT
PRODUCED MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION, ONLY RESULTING IN A FEW
HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OF RAIN OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. WITH SUCH
LIMITED INSTABILITY AND WEAK FORCING, LIGHTNING DOES NOT POSE MUCH
OF A THREAT LEAVING ANY SEVERE POTENTIAL VIRTUALLY NON-EXISTENT.
AS THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES ITS EASTWARDLY TRANSIT JUST
SOUTH OF THE AREA TOMORROW, EXPECT LINGERING RAIN CHANCES FOR
TOMORROW AS WELL. MUCH LIKE TODAY, ANY POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY REMAINS VERY LOW GIVEN THE VIRTUALLY NON-EXISTENT
INSTABILITY. EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVERAGE FROM THE PRECIP WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURE SPREADS QUITE SMALL. LOWS FOR TOMORROW MORNING WILL
RANGE IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S. HIGHS FOR TOMORROW WILL LOOK
ALMOST IDENTICAL TO TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S
KEEPING US A FEW DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES.
THERE WILL BE A BRIEF REPRIEVE FROM RAIN CHANCES FOR THE FIRST HALF
OF MONDAY, HOWEVER THEY WILL QUICKLY RETURN WITH A DESCENDING TROUGH
AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS. EVEN WITH
MODEST SHEAR, VERY LIMITED INSTABILITY WILL CONTINUE TO STAVE OFF
ANY SEVERE POTENTIAL. TUESDAY, THE SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH MID
TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DRAG A WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA
USHERING IN A DRIER AIR MASS AS OUR WINDS REORIENT OUT OF THE NORTH.
HIGHS WILL REMAIN MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S.
LATE WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING CLOUD COVERAGE WILL
DIMINISH AND WINDS WILL WEAKEN ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO DROP TO THE
MID TO UPPER 30S. AS A RESULT, A FEW AREAS MAY SEE SOME LIGHT FROST
IF WINDS ARE ABLE TO WEAKEN ENOUGH OVERNIGHT. THE POTENTIAL FOR
FROST ALSO LINGERS INTO FRIDAY MORNING WITH EARLY MORNING LOW
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 30S TO LOW 40S. CONDITIONS REMAIN FAIRLY DRY
FOR THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK AS MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGING MOVES
INTO OUR AREA WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING MOSTLY MID 50S TO LOW
60S.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 608 PM CDT SAT OCT 25 2025
EXPECT OCNL LGT SHRA TO PERSIST THRU 07Z WITH VFR CONDS.
SHOWERS WILL COME TO END AROUND 07Z WITH OVC CIGS AROUND 3-4KFT
PERSISTING THRU 11Z AFT WHICH MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED THRU THE
REMAINDER OF THE TAF PD. OCNL LGT SHOWERS WILL AGAIN BE POSS IN
THE VC OF THE TERMINALS AFT 16Z-18Z. WINDS THRU THE TAF PD WILL
BE OUT OF THE EAST BTN 7-12KTS.
EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
DISCUSSION...COLLIER
AVIATION...73
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