907
FXUS63 KEAX 260839
AFDEAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
339 AM CDT SUN OCT 26 2025
KEY MESSAGES
* LIGHT RAIN OR POCKETS OF DRIZZLE ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN TODAY. BEST
CHANCES FOR ACCUMULATING PRECIPITATION IS SOUTH AND EAST FROM
CLINTON-LEXINGTON-MOBERLY.
* ADDITIONAL RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY AS LARGE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM DEEPENS ACROSS THE CENTRAL US.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 338 AM CDT SUN OCT 26 2025
NEARLY STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
CONTINUES TO BE THE MAIN DRIVER IN SENSIBLE WEATHER ACROSS THE
CENTRAL US TODAY. RIBBON OF MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE TROUGH EXTEND
NORTH ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY BEFORE WRAPPING TO THE
NORTH AND WEST INTO CENTRAL MISSOURI. ISENTROPIC LIFT REMAINS
RELATIVELY WEAK TODAY, AND THUS EXPECT ANY PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS TO
BE FAIRLY MEAGER. BEST CHANCES OF MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION WILL
MAINLY BE CONCENTRATED IN 15-20Z TIME FRAME SOUTH AND EAST FROM
CLINTON MO-LEXINGTON-MOBERLY MO. OUTSIDE THAT WINDOW IN BOTH
LOCATION AND TIMING, EXPECT MAINLY JUST PATCHY DRIZZLE AS DRIER AIR
GRADUALLY FILTERS INTO THE REGION.
WAVE OFF THE PACIFIC NW COAST THIS MORNING IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT
SOUTHEAST TODAY - MONDAY AND DEEPEN LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS ~150
KNOT UPPER LEVEL JET DEVELOPS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH.
THIS RELATIVELY SLOW MOVING SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRING WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL TO THE REGION TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WITH THE LREF ENSEMBLE
SUGGESTING A 40-60 PERCENT CHANCE OF EXCEEDING 0.5" OF RAIN - WITH
GREATER PROBABILITIES FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST. DRIER CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED LATE WEEK, BUT MODELS ARE ALL FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN A FAIRLY
STRONG SHORT WAVE DROPPING SOUTH INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING SYSTEM. THE GFS KEEPS THE TWO SYSTEMS
FAIRLY INDEPENDENT, WHILE THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN KEEP THEM MUCH
CLOSER TOGETHER. WOULD LEAN TOWARDS A SLOWER EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER
TROUGH MID-WEEK, ESPECIALLY WITH HURRICANE MELISSA LIFTING NORTH
THROUGH THE ATLANTIC THROUGH THE WEEK.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1048 PM CDT SAT OCT 25 2025
THE TAF PD WILL START VFR FOR ALL THE TAF SITES HOWEVER, MVFR
CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO THE TAF SITES AFT 08Z FOR IXD,
AFT 14Z FOR MKC AND MCI AND 17Z FOR STJ. MVFR CIGS WILL THEN
PREVAIL THRU 00Z-01Z WHEN CIGS WILL DROP FURTHER INTO IFR. SOME
SPOTTY LIGHT SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED IN THE VC OF THE TAF SITES BTN
14Z-00Z. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE EAST BTN 7-12KTS THRU THE PD.
EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BT
AVIATION...73
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