453
FXUS63 KEAX 261128
AFDEAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
628 AM CDT SUN OCT 26 2025
KEY MESSAGES
* LIGHT RAIN OR POCKETS OF DRIZZLE ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN TODAY. BEST
CHANCES FOR ACCUMULATING PRECIPITATION IS SOUTH AND EAST FROM
CLINTON-LEXINGTON-MOBERLY.
* ADDITIONAL RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY AS LARGE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM DEEPENS ACROSS THE CENTRAL US.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 338 AM CDT SUN OCT 26 2025
NEARLY STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
CONTINUES TO BE THE MAIN DRIVER IN SENSIBLE WEATHER ACROSS THE
CENTRAL US TODAY. RIBBON OF MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE TROUGH EXTEND
NORTH ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY BEFORE WRAPPING TO THE
NORTH AND WEST INTO CENTRAL MISSOURI. ISENTROPIC LIFT REMAINS
RELATIVELY WEAK TODAY, AND THUS EXPECT ANY PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS TO
BE FAIRLY MEAGER. BEST CHANCES OF MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION WILL
MAINLY BE CONCENTRATED IN 15-20Z TIME FRAME SOUTH AND EAST FROM
CLINTON MO-LEXINGTON-MOBERLY MO. OUTSIDE THAT WINDOW IN BOTH
LOCATION AND TIMING, EXPECT MAINLY JUST PATCHY DRIZZLE AS DRIER AIR
GRADUALLY FILTERS INTO THE REGION.
WAVE OFF THE PACIFIC NW COAST THIS MORNING IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT
SOUTHEAST TODAY - MONDAY AND DEEPEN LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS ~150
KNOT UPPER LEVEL JET DEVELOPS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH.
THIS RELATIVELY SLOW MOVING SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRING WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL TO THE REGION TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WITH THE LREF ENSEMBLE
SUGGESTING A 40-60 PERCENT CHANCE OF EXCEEDING 0.5" OF RAIN - WITH
GREATER PROBABILITIES FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST. DRIER CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED LATE WEEK, BUT MODELS ARE ALL FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN A FAIRLY
STRONG SHORT WAVE DROPPING SOUTH INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING SYSTEM. THE GFS KEEPS THE TWO SYSTEMS
FAIRLY INDEPENDENT, WHILE THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN KEEP THEM MUCH
CLOSER TOGETHER. WOULD LEAN TOWARDS A SLOWER EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER
TROUGH MID-WEEK, ESPECIALLY WITH HURRICANE MELISSA LIFTING NORTH
THROUGH THE ATLANTIC THROUGH THE WEEK.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 622 AM CDT SUN OCT 26 2025
CHALLENGING AVIATION DAY TODAY AS IFR STRATUS BUILDS NORTH
TOWARD THE I-70 - HIGHWAY 36 CORRIDOR. PATCHY DRIZZLE AND LIGHT
PRECIPITATION MAINLY SOUTH OF I-70 AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 65 COULD
LEAD TO TEMPORARY REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY. MARGINALLY GUSTY
WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE DAYLIGHT HOURS TODAY,
DECREASING SOME WITH SUNSET TONIGHT.
EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BT
AVIATION...BT
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