490
FXUS63 KEAX 261843
AFDEAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
143 PM CDT SUN OCT 26 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- ONGOING DRIZZLE/LIGHT RAIN AGAIN TODAY MAINLY SOUTH OF I-70. LOW-
END CHANCES FOR DRIZZLE/LIGHT RAIN EARLY TOMORROW MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON PRIMARILY EAST OF I-35.
- ADDITIONAL RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 143 PM CDT SUN OCT 26 2025
GRAY AND DREARY CONDITIONS PERSIST WITH A MID TO UPPER LEVEL LOW
REMAINING DOMINANT OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. ANOTHER MID TO UPPER LEVEL
LOW REMAINS OFF THE WESTERN CANADIAN COAST WILL CONTINUE ITS TRACK
TO THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST THAT WILL PROVIDE PRECIP CHANCES FOR OUR AREA
IN THE NEXT FEW DAYS. AT THE SURFACE, A HIGH REMAINS OVER THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION AND A LOW OVER ALBERTA/SASKATCHEWAN. WITH
OUR AREA BEING BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES AN INCREASED PRESSURE HAS
LED TO OCCASIONAL GUSTS RANGING AROUND 20-25 MPH. WEAK ISENTROPIC
LIFT AT THE 295 K SURFACE HAS RESULTED IN SOME DRIZZLES/LIGHT
SHOWERS PRIMARILY SOUTH OF I-70. HI-RES MODELS SUGGEST PRECIP
CHANCES BEGIN TO DECREASE LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. AS
FAR AS TEMPERATURES, DIURNAL SPREADS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY SMALL GIVEN
THE EXTENSIVE AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVERAGE. HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE IN
THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S WHILE EARLY MORNING LOWS TOMORROW WILL STAY
MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S.
FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK, THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE
CENTRAL U.S. GRADUALLY MAKES ITS WAY FARTHER EAST KEEPING PRECIP
CHANCES BARELY ALIVE MAINLY EAST OF I-35 MONDAY MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON. THERE SEEMS TO BE DISAGREEMENT AMONG THE CAMS, AS THE
HREF ONLY KEEPS A BELOW 30% CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE PRECIP ALONG AND
EAST OF I-35. WITH REMNANT MOISTURE AND FEW WEAK BANDS OF VORTICITY
AT H700 A COUPLE MORE ROUNDS OF INCONSEQUENTIAL RAIN SHOWERS IS NOT
COMPLETELY OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR MONDAY MORNING. BETTER PRECIP
CHANCES RETURN LATE MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY WITH THE PREVIOUSLY-
MENTIONED, MID TO UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE WESTERN CANADIAN COAST
SPLITTING INTO SEPARATE SYSTEMS AND THE SOUTHERN LOW TRANSITING
ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS. NO SEVERE WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED AT THIS
TIME GIVEN THE VERY WEAK INSTABILITY. PRECIP CHANCES ALSO LINGER
INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE SYSTEM CONTINUES ITS TRACK TO THE
EAST/SOUTHEAST. AT THE SURFACE, THE ASSOCIATED LOW WILL DRAG A
SURFACE FRONT THROUGH THE AREA USHERING IN A DRIER AIR MASS AS OUR
WINDS SHIFT TO NORTH FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THIS WEEK. AS A RESULT,
CLOUD COVERAGE WILL DECREASE GOING INTO THURSDAY MORNING,
POTENTIALLY SETTING THE STAGE FOR EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL COOLING. A
SIMILAR SET UP (MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES, WEAK-ISH WINDS, AND LOW TEMPS
NEAR FREEZING) REMAINS IN PLACE INTO THE WEEKEND WHICH COULD RESULT
IN DAILY INCREASED FROST POTENTIALS FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THIS WEEK
AS MORNING LOWS DIP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1241 PM CDT SUN OCT 26 2025
VARYING VFR TO IFR CONDITIONS TO START THE TAF PERIOD WITH WINDS
OCCASIONALLY GUSTING TO 20-25 KTS OUT OF THE EAST ACROSS THE
AREA. CLOUD CONDITIONS WILL WORSEN LATER THIS EVENING WITH
WIDESPREAD IFR CIGS POSSIBLE STARTING IN THE PREDAWN HOURS OF
TOMORROW MORNING. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY IMPROVE
TOWARDS THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
DISCUSSION...COLLIER
AVIATION...COLLIER
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