166
FXUS63 KEAX 271142
AFDEAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
642 AM CDT MON OCT 27 2025
KEY MESSAGES
* DREARY FALL CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS ABUNDANT CLOUD
COVER KEEPS TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL.
* RAIN EXPECTED TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS
ALONG A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE REGION. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF
1-2" POSSIBLE ACROSS CENTRAL MISSOURI
* DRIER CONDITIONS WITH MORE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED LATE
WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT MON OCT 27 2025
SLOW MOVING TROUGH THAT HAS BROUGHT ABUNDANT CLOUD CLOUD COVER AND
LIGHT RAIN TO THE REGION HAS NOW MADE IT'S WAY TO SOUTHEAST
MISSOURI. CLOCKWISE FLOW AROUND THE SURFACE RIDGE ACROSS THE
NORTHEASTERN US WILL PROMOTE EASTERLY WINDS TODAY AS UPPER LOW TO
THE SOUTH MOVES EAST INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND WE
TRANSITION TO THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST.
LATENT MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION WILL SUPPORT ANOTHER GLOOMY
FALL DAY ACROSS THE REGION. WHILE LIFT REMAINS RELATIVELY WEAK
TODAY, THE RELATIVELY DEEP SATURATED LATER FROM THE SURFACE
THROUGH 800+ MB COULD CREATE MORNING FOG AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
PATCHY DRIZZLE THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THE GRAY SKIES AND ONLY WEAK
LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES BELOW
SEASONAL NORMS. HAVE SIDED TOWARDS THE COOLER SIDE OF GUIDANCE
FOR TODAY (ROUGHLY NEAR THE 25 PERCENTILE OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS).
COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A TROUGH ACROSS SASKATCHEWAN SHIFTS EAST
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS TODAY. ABOVE THE SURFACE, RELATIVELY
STRONG FLOW FROM NORTHERN CALIFORNIA INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES
WILL PROPEL MIDLEVEL ENERGY INTO THE CENTRAL US LEADING TO A
DEEPENING TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL US TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
WITH THE LATENT MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA (PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES NEAR 90TH PERCENTILE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR), COLD FRONT
WILL HAVE PLENTY OF MOISTURE TO WORK WITH AS IT SHIFTS EAST;
HOWEVER, INSTABILITY WILL BE RELATIVELY LIMITED WITH MEAGER MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES. EXPECT RAIN TO DEVELOP ALONG AND BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT AS IT SWEEPS ACROSS THE REGION ON TUESDAY, BUT COULD
LOOK AT A PROLONGED PERIOD OF PRECIPITATION LASTING WELL INTO
WEDNESDAY ACROSS CENTRAL INTO EASTERN MISSOURI AS TROUGH DEEPENS
ALONG THE THERMAL GRADIENT. WITH RELATIVELY DRY ANTECEDENT
CONDITIONS (REGION REMAINS IN D0-D2 DROUGHT), WORKED WITH WPC
TO REMOVE EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OUTLOOK FOR THE FORECAST AREA,
DESPITE THE POTENTIAL FOR DECENT RAINFALL WITH THIS SYSTEM.
LREF ENSEMBLE SUGGESTS 30% POTENTIAL OF 1" OF RAINFALL FOR MUCH
OF THE REGION, WITH PROBABILITIES TRENDING CLOSER TO 50% FOR
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL MISSOURI.
DRIER CONDITIONS LATE WEEK LEAD TO A GRADUAL WARMING TREND, BUT
NORTHWEST FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DRAG A
RELATIVELY STRONG SHORT WAVE SOUTH EAST ACROSS THE REGION ON
SATURDAY. CURRENTLY, MODELS SUGGEST THERE WOULD BE RELATIVELY
LITTLE AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE TO WORK WITH, THEREFORE MAINTAINED A DRY
FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 639 AM CDT MON OCT 27 2025
SUB-IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF THE
DAY TODAY. PATCHY FOG/DRIZZLE ARE ALSO POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY
THROUGH 18Z. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE REGION
TOWARDS 12Z TUESDAY, LEADING TO WIDESPREAD RAIN DEVELOPING FROM
WEST TO EAST.
EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BT
AVIATION...BT
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