909
FXUS63 KEAX 280502
AFDEAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1202 AM CDT TUE OCT 28 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- DREARY FALL CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS ABUNDANT
CLOUD COVER KEEPS TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL.
- RAIN CHANCES RETURN TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE REGION. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1-2" POSSIBLE ACROSS CENTRAL
MISSOURI.
- DRIER CONDITIONS WITH MORE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED LATE
WEEK INTO THIS WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 244 PM CDT MON OCT 27 2025
YET ANOTHER GRAY AND DREARY DAY WITH EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER
MODERATING TEMPERATURES, KEEPING THEM A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR. A MID TO UPPER LEVEL LOW REMAINS JUST TO OUR
SOUTHEAST NEAR THE WESTERN TN/KY BORDER WITH ANOTHER MID TO UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE ALBERTA/SASKATCHEWAN BORDER SLOWLY TRANSITING
EAST. AT THE SURFACE, THERE IS A LOW OVER EASTERN SD AND A HIGH OVER
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES THAT WILL KEEP OUR WINDFLOW MOSTLY OUT OF
THE EAST/SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY. EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVERAGE ACROSS
THE AREA WILL ONCE AGAIN KEEP OUR TEMPERATURE SPREADS FROM HIGH TO
LOW TEMPERATURES FAIRLY SMALL. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE IN THE MID TO
UPPER 50S WITH A FEW AREAS POSSIBLY REACHING THE LOW 60S. EARLY
MORNING LOWS WILL RANGE IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S.
OUR ATTENTION THEN SHIFTS TO TONIGHT INTO EARLY TOMORROW MORNING AS
THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE ALBERTA/SASKATCHEWAN BORDER
CONTINUES TO TRACK EAST, DRAGGING THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT TOWARDS
OUR WESTERN DOORSTEP. THIS WILL RESULT IN PRECIP CHANCES STARTING
LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY TOMORROW MORNING. THESE SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED
TO LINGER AND BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD THROUGH THE DAY AS THE FRONT
PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA. NO SEVERE IS ANTICIPATED WITH THESE SHOWERS
AS THERE IS VERY LIMITED INSTABILITY. HOWEVER, CONDITIONS COULD BE A
BIT BREEZY WITH OCCASIONAL WIND GUSTS TO 25-35 MPH ESPECIALLY ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THE FRONT AS WINDS REORIENT TO THE NORTH/NORTHWEST. FROM
A HYDRO PERSPECTIVE, INCREASED MOISTURE TRANSPORT OUT AHEAD OF THE
FRONT WILL RESULT IN PWATS ABOVE THE 90TH PERCENTILE FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR. SHOWERS IN THIS KIND OF ENVIRONMENT COULD YIELD A FEW BRIEF
HEAVY DOWNPOURS, HOWEVER FLOODING CONCERNS STILL REMAIN LOW.
FORECASTED RAIN ACCUMULATION TOTALS FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
COMBINED SEEM TO HOVER AROUND .75 TO 1.5 INCHES WITH MORE RECENT
MODELS TRENDING EVEN LOWER. THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS KEEPS HIGHER
RAINFALL TOTALS TO THE NORTH (BETTER FORCING) AND SOUTH/SOUTHEAST
(MORE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY). OUTSIDE OF THE FEW LIGHT RAINS WE
HAVE HAD RECENTLY, CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY DRY WHICH HAS
RESULTED IN HIGH FFG VALUES. THIS, COUPLED WITH THE DURATION OF THE
SHOWERS SUGGEST FLOODING CONCERNS REMAIN MINIMAL.
DRIER AIR ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE FRONT WILL HELP US FINALLY CLEAR
OUT OF THIS EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. AS
CLOUDS BEGIN TO CLEAR OUT AND WINDS WEAKEN, THIS WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO DIP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S BY THURSDAY MORNING,
INCREASING THE FROST POTENTIAL. AS WINDS REMAIN OUT OF THE
NORTH/NORTHWEST THROUGH THE SECOND HALF OF THIS WEEK, DAILY CHANCES
FOR FROST IN THE MORNINGS STICK AROUND INTO THE WEEKEND. EARLY
MORNING LOWS ARE ANTICIPATED TO RANGE AROUND THE MID 30S TO LOW 40S
(NEAR OR JUST BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES). WITH PERSISTENT NORTHERLY
FLOW, CONDITIONS APPEAR TO STAY DRY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1159 PM CDT MON OCT 27 2025
IFR CIGS WILL PREVAIL THRU THE TAF PD WITH LGT FOG REDUCING VIS
TO 3-5SM THRU 15Z. AFT 15Z...LGT SHRA ARE FCST TO MOV INTO THE
TERMINALS KEEPING VIS REDUCED TO 3SM-5SM BEFORE A PD OF MOD-HVY
SHRA MOVE INTO THE TERMINALS AROUND 20Z AND PERSISTS THRU 00Z
REDUCING VIS TO 1-3SM. LGT SHRA WILL THEN PREVAIL FROM 00Z THRU
THE END OF THE TAF PD WITH VIS REDUCED TO 3SM-5SM. WINDS WILL
BE LGT OUT OF THE EAST THRU 15Z BEFORE BECMG LGT AND VRB. A
COLD FRONT WILL PASS THRU THE TAF SITES BTN 18Z-20Z SHIFTING
WINDS THE NW/NNW AND INCR TO 10-15KTS WITH GUST TO 20-25KTS
BEHIND THE FRONT. WINDS WILL FURTHER INCR OUT OF THE NNW AFT 00Z
TO 20-25KTS WITH GUSTS TO 30-35KTS
EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
DISCUSSION...COLLIER
AVIATION...73
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