580
FXUS63 KEAX 280841
AFDEAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
341 AM CDT TUE OCT 28 2025
KEY MESSAGES
* COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION TODAY LEADING TO WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL.
* LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN CENTRAL - SOUTHERN MISSOURI
TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS WILL LEAD TO STRONG GUSTY
WINDS TO NEAR 40-45 MPH DEVELOPING ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS INTO
WESTERN MISSOURI. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DECREASE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
* FROST LIKELY ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY- SUNDAY MORNING.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 338 AM CDT TUE OCT 28 2025
COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A PARENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN NORTHEAST
SASKATCHEWAN IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. AS OF 08Z,
THE SURFACE FRONT WAS LOCATED FROM YANKTON, SD TO RUSSELL KS, WITH
FAIRLY WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT. EXPECT THE
SHOWERS TO BECOME MORE NUMEROUS AS SYSTEM BUILDS EAST INTO
INCREASINGLY MOIST AIRMASS. AIRMASS AHEAD OF THE FRONT IS
UNSEASONABLY MOIST WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AROUND 1 INCH (80-
90TH PERCENTILE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE ABUNDANT MOISTURE HAS
LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF STRATUS, WHICH COULD CREATE PATCHY
DRIZZLE IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. AS THE FRONT COMES
THROUGH, LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES STEEPEN ENOUGH TO SUPPORT THE
PRODUCTION OF RAIN. WINDS INCREASE BEHIND THE FRONT, BUT INCREASE IN
EARNEST LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS COLD AIR ADVECTION INCREASES JUST
ABOVE THE SURFACE. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SUGGEST WINDS OF ~35 KNOTS ARE
AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER ALONG THE KANSAS/MISSOURI BORDER LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AS STRONGER COLD AIR ADVECTION KICKS IN. SHOWER
ACTIVITY, WHICH IS STILL EXPECTED TO BE OCCURRING, MAY BE ENOUGH TO
ENHANCE WIND GUSTS POTENTIALLY LEADING TO NEAR WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA MAINLY FAR EASTERN KANSAS; HOWEVER, PRESSURE RISES AT THIS
POINT ARE FAIRLY MEAGER (0.5-1 MB/3 HRS) SO UNLESS WE HAVE DEEPER
MIXING THAN ANTICIPATED OR THE SHOWERS CAN EFFECTIVELY DRAW STRONGER
MOMENTUM DOWN FROM ALOFT, EXPECT WIND GUSTS TO LARGELY REMAIN BELOW
WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA. STRONGEST COLD AIR ADVECTION LOOKS TO
LARGELY BE FOCUSED IN THE 22Z TUESDAY- 15Z WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME.
THIS IS ALSO THE SAME TIME FRAME A 150 KNOT UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK
ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LEADS TO RAPID
CYCLOGENESIS ACROSS CENTRAL INTO SOUTHERN MISSOURI. AS THIS NEWLY
DEVELOPED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS EAST ON WEDNESDAY, RAIN AND
WIND SHOULD GRADUALLY DECREASE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST.
THE COOLER DRIER AIRMASS WILL LEAD TO CLEARING SKIES ACROSS THE
REGION, BUT TEMPERATURES THURSDAY - SUNDAY MORNING ARE EXPECTED
TO BE SUPPORTIVE OF FROST. LREF ENSEMBLE EVEN SUGGESTS ~10
PERCENT CHANCE OF SUBFREEZING CONDITIONS ALONG AND NORTH OF
HIGHWAY 36 ON SUNDAY MORNING.
TROUGH DEEPENING ACROSS WESTERN CANADA FLATTENS A RIDGE
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE WESTERN US PUSHING THE MILD AIR EAST,
POTENTIALLY LEADING TO A LATE WEEKEND - EARLY THE FOLLOWING WEEK
WARM UP.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1159 PM CDT MON OCT 27 2025
IFR CIGS WILL PREVAIL THRU THE TAF PD WITH LGT FOG REDUCING VIS
TO 3-5SM THRU 15Z. AFT 15Z...LGT SHRA ARE FCST TO MOV INTO THE
TERMINALS KEEPING VIS REDUCED TO 3SM-5SM BEFORE A PD OF MOD-HVY
SHRA MOVE INTO THE TERMINALS AROUND 20Z AND PERSISTS THRU 00Z
REDUCING VIS TO 1-3SM. LGT SHRA WILL THEN PREVAIL FROM 00Z THRU
THE END OF THE TAF PD WITH VIS REDUCED TO 3SM-5SM. WINDS WILL
BE LGT OUT OF THE EAST THRU 15Z BEFORE BECMG LGT AND VRB. A
COLD FRONT WILL PASS THRU THE TAF SITES BTN 18Z-20Z SHIFTING
WINDS THE NW/NNW AND INCR TO 10-15KTS WITH GUST TO 20-25KTS
BEHIND THE FRONT. WINDS WILL FURTHER INCR OUT OF THE NNW AFT 00Z
TO 20-25KTS WITH GUSTS TO 30-35KTS
EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BT
AVIATION...73
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