131
FXUS63 KEAX 281720
AFDEAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1220 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2025
KEY MESSAGES
* COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION TODAY LEADING TO WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL.
* LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN CENTRAL - SOUTHERN MISSOURI
TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS WILL LEAD TO STRONG GUSTY
WINDS TO NEAR 40-45 MPH DEVELOPING ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS INTO
WESTERN MISSOURI. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DECREASE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
* FROST LIKELY ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY- SUNDAY MORNING.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1036 AM CDT TUE OCT 28 2025
CURRENT FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FOR THIS MORNING AND THIS
AFTERNOON. ONLY CHANGE HERE WAS TO GO AHEAD AND GET AHEAD OF THE
UPCOMING GUSTY WINDS FOR LATER TONIGHT ACROSS THE REGION. AFTER
LOOKING THROUGH THE BULK OF THE 12Z MODELS AND COORDINATING WITH
SURROUNDING OFFICES, HAVE GONE AHEAD AND ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY
FOR AREAS WEST I-49 FROM 00Z THROUGH 15Z WEDNESDAY. WINDS LOOK
TO PICK UP THIS EVENING WITH SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20-30 MPH AND
GUSTS OF 45 MPH. THE BEST TIME FOR 40+ MPH GUSTS LOOKS TO BE
AFTER MIDNIGHT.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 338 AM CDT TUE OCT 28 2025
COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A PARENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN NORTHEAST
SASKATCHEWAN IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. AS OF 08Z,
THE SURFACE FRONT WAS LOCATED FROM YANKTON, SD TO RUSSELL KS, WITH
FAIRLY WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT. EXPECT THE
SHOWERS TO BECOME MORE NUMEROUS AS SYSTEM BUILDS EAST INTO
INCREASINGLY MOIST AIRMASS. AIRMASS AHEAD OF THE FRONT IS
UNSEASONABLY MOIST WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AROUND 1 INCH (80-
90TH PERCENTILE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE ABUNDANT MOISTURE HAS
LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF STRATUS, WHICH COULD CREATE PATCHY
DRIZZLE IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. AS THE FRONT COMES
THROUGH, LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES STEEPEN ENOUGH TO SUPPORT THE
PRODUCTION OF RAIN. WINDS INCREASE BEHIND THE FRONT, BUT INCREASE IN
EARNEST LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS COLD AIR ADVECTION INCREASES JUST
ABOVE THE SURFACE. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SUGGEST WINDS OF ~35 KNOTS ARE
AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER ALONG THE KANSAS/MISSOURI BORDER LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AS STRONGER COLD AIR ADVECTION KICKS IN. SHOWER
ACTIVITY, WHICH IS STILL EXPECTED TO BE OCCURRING, MAY BE ENOUGH TO
ENHANCE WIND GUSTS POTENTIALLY LEADING TO NEAR WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA MAINLY FAR EASTERN KANSAS; HOWEVER, PRESSURE RISES AT THIS
POINT ARE FAIRLY MEAGER (0.5-1 MB/3 HRS) SO UNLESS WE HAVE DEEPER
MIXING THAN ANTICIPATED OR THE SHOWERS CAN EFFECTIVELY DRAW STRONGER
MOMENTUM DOWN FROM ALOFT, EXPECT WIND GUSTS TO LARGELY REMAIN BELOW
WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA. STRONGEST COLD AIR ADVECTION LOOKS TO
LARGELY BE FOCUSED IN THE 22Z TUESDAY- 15Z WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME.
THIS IS ALSO THE SAME TIME FRAME A 150 KNOT UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK
ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LEADS TO RAPID
CYCLOGENESIS ACROSS CENTRAL INTO SOUTHERN MISSOURI. AS THIS NEWLY
DEVELOPED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS EAST ON WEDNESDAY, RAIN AND
WIND SHOULD GRADUALLY DECREASE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST.
THE COOLER DRIER AIRMASS WILL LEAD TO CLEARING SKIES ACROSS THE
REGION, BUT TEMPERATURES THURSDAY - SUNDAY MORNING ARE EXPECTED
TO BE SUPPORTIVE OF FROST. LREF ENSEMBLE EVEN SUGGESTS ~10
PERCENT CHANCE OF SUBFREEZING CONDITIONS ALONG AND NORTH OF
HIGHWAY 36 ON SUNDAY MORNING.
TROUGH DEEPENING ACROSS WESTERN CANADA FLATTENS A RIDGE
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE WESTERN US PUSHING THE MILD AIR EAST,
POTENTIALLY LEADING TO A LATE WEEKEND - EARLY THE FOLLOWING WEEK
WARM UP.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1217 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2025
LOW CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON WITH
AREAS OF DRIZZLE BECOMING AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN. CIGS LOOK TO
REMAIN IN THE IFR RANGE WITH MVFR VSBYS. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO
PICK UP OUT OF THE NORTHWEST LATER THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS OF
20-25KTS POSSIBLE PRIOR TO 29/00Z. OVERNIGHT, LIGHT RAIN AND
DRIZZLE WILL CONTINUE, THOUGH CIGS COULD IMPROVE SLIGHTLY. MAIN
AVIATION CONCERN OVERNIGHT WILL BE GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS.
SUSTAINED 15-20KT WINDS WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 28-34KTS ARE
POSSIBLE. CAN'T RULE OUT A 40KT GUST AT MCI OR IXD.
EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MO...WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM CDT WEDNESDAY
FOR MOZ001-002-011>013-020-021-028-029-037-043-053.
KS...WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM CDT WEDNESDAY
FOR KSZ025-057-060-102>105.
UPDATE.......MJ
DISCUSSION...BT
AVIATION.....MJ
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