326
FXUS63 KEAX 290001
AFDEAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
701 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION TODAY BRINING WIDESPREAD
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL.
- SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTER WILL DEVELOP IN SOUTHERN MISSOURI
TONIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS WILL LEAD TO A PERIOD
OF STRONG GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE REGION. WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO
45 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS AND WESTERN
MISSOURI. WINDS WILL DECREASE ON WEDNESDAY.
- FROST IS LIKELY ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 223 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2025
SURFACE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH EASTWARD THIS AFTERNOON AND
IS JUST ENTERING THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. AHEAD
OF THE FRONT, WIDESPREAD SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER EASTERN KS
AND THIS AREA OF SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD ACROSS WESTERN MO
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WINDS ALOFT ARE STRONG, ESPECIALLY
AT THE TOP OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER WHERE 35-40KTS IS CURRENTLY
SEEN. THE ONGOING RAIN SHOWERS MAY BE ABLE TO PULL SOME OF THE
HIGHER MOMENTUM AIR DOWN TO THE SURFACE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. ONCE THE FRONT PASSES, STEEPENING LAPSE RATES WILL
LIKELY RESULT IN SOME OF THIS HIGHER MOMENTUM AIR MIXING DOWN
ACROSS EASTERN KS AND INTO WESTERN MO. OVERALL, MODEL SOLUTIONS
SHOW WINDS OF 20-30 MPH BEING COMMON LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WITH GUSTS OF 35-40 MPH BEING POSSIBLE.
OVERNIGHT, STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK WILL DIVE SOUTHWARD
ACROSS THE PLAINS AND RESULT IN SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS ACROSS
NORTHERN AR/SOUTHERN MO. WE SHOULD SEE A BIT OF A RISE IN THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TO BRING WINDS UP DURING THE OVERNIGHT. MAIN
CORRIDOR OF WIND GUSTS LOOKS TO BE BETWEEN 29/08-29/12Z WHERE A
FEW GUSTS TO 40-45 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY OVER EASTERN KS
AND INTO FAR WESTERN MO. AFTER COORDINATING WITH SURROUNDING
OFFICES, A WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR AREAS WEST OF I-49
FOR TONIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.
BY TOMORROW MORNING, SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ACROSS SOUTHERN MO
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST, RESULTING IN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
RELAXING AND RAIN SHOWERS ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST. PARTIAL
CLEARING OF SKIES IS EXPECTED IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS LOOK TO
TOP OUT IN THE 50-55 DEGREE RANGE. CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHTER
WINDS SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO TANK WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS
DROPPING INTO THE MIDDLE 30S WITH AREAS OF FROST POSSIBLE.
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, A BROAD NORTHWEST FLOW
IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE PLAINS AND INTO THE MIDWEST FOR MUCH OF
THE PERIOD. A QUICK MOVING PERTURBATION ALOFT LOOKS TO ROTATE
THROUGH IA AND IL LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY, BUT THIS FEATURE
LOOKS TO REMAIN TOO FAR NORTH OF US TO BRING ANY PRECIPITATION.
MOVING INTO THE WEEKEND, SECONDARY UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL MOVE
ACROSS KS AND AMPLIFY AS IT APPROACHES THE LOWER MS VALLEY. A
CONTINUED DRY PATTERN IS FORECAST HERE THROUGH AT LEAST NEXT
TUESDAY.
HIGHS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY LOOK TO WARM INTO THE MID-UPPER 50S
WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 30S. SATURDAY WILL FEATURE HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE 50S, BUT A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY-
TUESDAY WITH AFTERNOON READINGS TOPPING OUT IN THE UPPER 50S TO
THE LOWER 60S. AREAS OF FROST ARE LIKELY EACH MORNING, HOWEVER,
CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT SUB-FREEZING CONDITIONS WILL BE
POSSIBLE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY MORNING ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY
36.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 650 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2025
SHRA LINGERS THROUGH THE PERIOD AS WINDS ACCELERATE. GUSTS
OVERNIGHT AROUND 30-35 KNOTS ANTICIPATED. VIS IS EXPECTED TO
FLUCTUATE BETWEEN VFR AND IFR DEPENDING ON INTENSITY OF BANDS
OF RAINFALL. SHRA IS EXPECTED TO LINGER THROUGH 06Z BEFORE
EITHER VACATING OR TRANSITIONING TO -DZ. SHRA BECOMES MORE
INTERMITTENT AFTER SUNRISE WITH A FEW PERIODS OF HEAVIER SHRA
POSSIBLE BEFORE EXITING THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON. WIND
GUSTS DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET TOMORROW WITH SUSTAINED WINDS
SLOWING TOMORROW NIGHT.
EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MO...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR MOZ001-002-011>013-
020-021-028-029-037-043-053.
KS...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR KSZ025-057-060-
102>105.
DISCUSSION...WFO EAX
AVIATION...PESEL
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page