439
FXUS63 KEAX 290827
AFDEAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
327 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2025
KEY MESSAGES
* RAIN IS EXPECTED TO PUSH SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA THIS MORNING WITH
GRADUALLY DECREASING WINDS.
* FROST POTENTIAL ACROSS THE REGION THE NEXT SEVERAL MORNING AS LOW
TEMPERATURES FALL INTO THE 30S. FROST ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT
THURSDAY MORNING FOR EASTERN KANSAS INTO NORTHERN MISSOURI.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 326 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2025
1006 MB LOW CENTERED JUST SOUTH OF THE BOOT HEAL OF MISSOURI THIS
MORNING IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT EAST INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY TODAY.
AS IT DOES SO, PRECIPITATION SHOULD GRADUALLY SHIFT SOUTHEAST AND
GUSTY NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY RELAX THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
OPTED TO KEEP THE WIND ADVISORY GOING THROUGH 15Z WITH WIND GUSTS
IN THE 35-40 MPH RANGE. WIND GUSTS MAY BRIEFLY DECREASE TOWARDS
SUNRISE, BUT THEN INCREASE ONCE AGAIN WITH MIXING. LOW LYING STRATUS
ACROSS THE AREA WILL GRADUALLY LIFT THROUGH THE DAY AS LOW LEVEL
DRIER AIR FILTERS INTO THE REGION. THE COOL AIRMASS TODAY AND CLOUD
COVER WILL ONCE AGAIN KEEP TEMPERATURES ON THE COOL SIDE OF SEASONAL
NORMS WITH A SMALL DIURNAL RISE IN TEMPERATURES.
THE DRIER AIR BUILDING INTO THE REGION IN CONJUNCTION WITH
DECREASING WINDS WILL CREATE DECENT RADIATIONAL CONDITIONS. THIS
WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL BACK INTO THE 30S, WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR FROST. HAVE ISSUED A FROST ADVISORY FOR AREAS ALONG
AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM MOUND CITY KS TO KIRKSVILLE MO. LREF
PROBABILITIES OF TEMPERATURES COOLER THAN 37 THURSDAY MORNING ARE
HIGHEST FOR LOCATION NORTH OF THE KC METRO AND WEST OF THIS LINE.
FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST, WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE POTENTIAL
FOR FOG DEVELOPING IF THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE RECENT
RAINFALL IS NOT GIVEN AMPLE OPPORTUNITY TO MIXOUT.
THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND LOOKS TO BE COOL AND DRY WITH FALL LIKE
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION. A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES ARE EXPECTED
TO PASS OVER THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY THOUGH THESE
DISTURBANCES HAVE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF MOISTURE TO WORK. THEREFORE,
STILL EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS TO ROUND OUT THE WEEK, BUT COULD SEE
TEMPERATURES COOL A BIT ESPECIALLY INTO THE WEEKEND AS A COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. MODEL ENSEMBLES HAVE STARTED TO PICK UP
ON THIS AS WELL, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SUBFREEZING TEMPERATURES
ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 36 BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY MORNINGS-
DEPENDING ON POTENTIAL CLOUD COVER.
ZONAL FLOW TRIES TO SET UP EARLY NEXT WEEK LEADING TO SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES AND CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1235 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2025
MVFR TO AT TIMES IFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
12-15, WITH RISING CEILINGS THEREAFTER AS PRECIPITATION COMES TO
AN END. GUSTY NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH 00Z
THURSDAY. THEREAFTER, VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST.
EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MO...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR MOZ001-002-
011>013-020-021-028-029-037-043-053.
FROST ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 8 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR MOZ001>008-
011>017-020>024-028>031-037-038-043.
KS...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR KSZ025-057-060-
102>105.
FROST ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 8 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR KSZ025-057-
060-102>105.
DISCUSSION...BT
AVIATION...BT
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