946
FXUS63 KEAX 300826
AFDEAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
326 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2025
KEY MESSAGES
* FROST POTENTIAL EACH MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. COULD SEE
TEMPERATURES APPROACH FREEZING ACROSS NORTHERN MISSOURI SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY MORNINGS.
* FOG IS POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN MISSOURI THIS MORNING.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2025
ELONGATED WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY LEADING TO LIGHT WINDS AND AT LEAST MOSTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS- SOMETHING THAT HASN'T BEEN VISIBLE ACROSS THE REGION IN
DAYS. LINGERING MID-LEVEL CLOUD COVER ALONG THE KS/MO BORDER IS
SLOWLY DISSIPATING UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE,
BUT HAS SLOWED RADIATIONAL COOLING. AM STILL EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO
LARGELY FALL INTO THE 30S THIS MORNING, AND AS SUCH, MAINTAINED THE
FROST ADVISORY THIS MORNING. SHORT TERM HIGH RES CAMS SHOW THE
POTENTIAL FOR FOG DEVELOPING ACROSS IOWA OVERNIGHT, AND BUILDING
SOUTH INTO NORTHERN MISSOURI UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF LIGHT NORTHWEST
WINDS AT THE SURFACE. CONFIDENCE IN PRECISE LOCATION OF THE FOG IS
STILL SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN, WITH THE RAP SUGGESTING THE NORTHERN TIER
OF COUNTIES OF MISSOURI COULD BE SUSCEPTIBLE TO FOG THIS MORNING,
WHILE THE HRRR IS A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH FOG POTENTIAL BUILDING
SOUTH TOWARDS THE KC METRO. THERE REMAINS A FAIR AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE FROM YESTERDAY'S RAINS IN THE NEAR SURFACE LAYER (WITH
CLOUD COVER LIMITING EVAPORATION), SO CAN'T RULE OUT THE POTENTIAL
FOR FOG OVER THE NEXT 6 HOURS OR SO (THOUGH 14Z). THEREAFTER, EXPECT
SURFACE HEATING TO LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS,
WHICH WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED IN TIME AS DRY AIR MIXES DOWN FROM
ALOFT LEADING TO MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS BY LATE DAY.
FROST POTENTIAL ONCE AGAIN ON FRIDAY MORNING, THOUGH THERE LOOKS TO
BE A FAIR AMOUNT OF HIGH CLOUD ACROSS AT LEAST NORTHERN MISSOURI
WHICH MAY INFLUENCE RADIATIVE CONDITIONS. AS SUCH, AGREED WITH
SURROUNDING OFFICES TO HOLD OFF ON ANY POTENTIAL FROST HEADLINES FOR
NOW, BUT REALIZE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE MID 30S
ON FRIDAY MORNING.
A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE WESTERN DAKOTAS INTO EASTERN
COLORADO THIS MORNING IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST TODAY BUILDING INTO
THE REGION FRIDAY. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION WITH
RELATIVELY LITTLE FANFARE WITH LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH, BUT
WILL REINFORCE THE UNSEASONABLY COOL CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION.
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS
BEHIND THIS FRONT AND REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS MAY
ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO FALL TO NEAR FREEZING ACROSS AT LEAST
NORTHERN MISSOURI SATURDAY AND SUNDAY MORNINGS.
A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED NEXT WEEK AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS
THE WEST IS FLATTENED BY A SERIES OF WAVES MOVING ACROSS THE
US/CANADIAN BORDER. PATTERN TRANSITIONS MORE TO A ZONAL FLOW
PATTERN, THOUGH GULF REMAINS SHUT DOWN THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST
HALF OF THE WEEK LIMITING THE MOISTURE POTENTIAL ACROSS THE REGION.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1215 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2025
VFR CONDITIONS FOR NOW AS A SCATTERED-BROKEN DECK OF CLOUDS
THINS ALONG THE KS/MO BORDER. AM WATCHING FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR
FOG DEVELOPING ACROSS CENTRAL INTO SOUTHERN IOWA, AND BUILD
SOUTH DOWN I-35 TOWARDS THE METRO. DEPENDING ON HOW FAR SOUTH IT
GETS, COULD IMPACT MCI AND POTENTIALLY MKC. SCATTERED TO BROKEN
DECK OVER STJ MAY KEEP THEM MORE PROTECTED FROM FOG POTENTIAL.
ONCE THE FOG CLEARS, LIGHT WEST- NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED
WITH FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS DEVELOPING MID-DAY DISSIPATING
TOWARDS SUNSET.
EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MO...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR MOZ001>008-
011>017-020>024-028>031-037-038-043.
KS...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR KSZ025-057-060-
102>105.
DISCUSSION...BT
AVIATION...BT
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