395
FXUS63 KEAX 310459
AFDEAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1159 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- DAILY CHANCES FOR MORNING FROST CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY WITH
LOWS MOSTLY IN THE 30S. SATURDAY AND SUNDAY MORNINGS ARE
ANTICIPATED TO BE THE COLDEST WITH WIDESPREAD NEAR OR BELOW
FREEZING TEMPERATURES.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 136 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2025
A FAIRLY UNEVENTFUL DAY, WEATHER-WISE, WITH A SHORTWAVE MID TO UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE AREA AND A MID TO UPPER LEVEL LOW SLOWLY
ENTERING MANITOBA. AT THE SURFACE, WEAK HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER
THE AREA WITH A SURFACE LOW OVER PA. TEMPERATURES TODAY ARE EXPECTED
TO REACH THE MID TO UPPER 50S. AS WE TRANSITION INTO THE NIGHT, A
WEAK COLD FRONT CURRENTLY DRAPED ACROSS THE EASTERN
DAKOTAS/WESTERN MN, WILL BEGIN TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. CLEAR
SKIES COUPLED WITH WEAK NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO SINK INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S RESULTING IN A
FROST POTENTIAL FOR TOMORROW MORNING. HOWEVER, THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY AS THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER MANITOBA
SPLITS INTO TWO SEPARATE SYSTEMS AND TRACKS TO THE SOUTHEAST. A
FEW UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE INITIAL SYSTEM COULD
HINDER TEMPERATURES JUST ENOUGH TO STAVE OFF THE FROST POTENTIAL
IN SOME AREAS. HOWEVER, THE HREF STILL GIVES MOST OF OUR AREA A
60-80% CHANCE FOR TEMPERATURES TO GET BELOW 36 DEGREES F
(MOSTLY IMPLYING FROST).
FOR THE WEEKEND, THE SECONDARY MID TO UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE
AREA. GIVEN THE LIMITED AMOUNT OF MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM,
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY. AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE
DESCENDS FROM THE NORTHWEST ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE PREVIOUSLY-
MENTIONED COLD FRONT KEEPING WINDS OUT OF THE NORTH/NORTHWEST. AS A
RESULT, EXPECT THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES OF THE WEEK SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY MORNING. SATURDAY MORNING LOWS MAY RANGE IN THE 30S WITH
AREAS NORTH OF I-70 AT OR BELOW FREEZING. FOR SUNDAY, AT OR BELOW
FREEZING TEMPERATURES BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD TO AREAS SOUTH OF I-70
AS WELL. EARLY NEXT WEEK, MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGING MOVES OVER THE
AREA. HIGHER HEIGHTS SUGGEST A WARMING TREND WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN
THE 60S FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1157 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE DURATION OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. WINDS REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE, GENERALLY OUT OF THE
WEST AND NORTH. WINDS PICK UP SLIGHTLY DURING THE DAY AS A WEAK
FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. SOME GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE BEHIND
THE FRONT, PARTICULARLY AT STJ, BECOMING MORE INTERMITTENT AS
THE BOUNDARY REACHED THE OTHER TERMINALS.
EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MO...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR MOZ017-020>025-
028>033-037>040-043>046-053-054.
KS...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR KSZ025-057-060-
103>105.
DISCUSSION...COLLIER
AVIATION...PESEL
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