053
FXUS63 KEAX 310837
AFDEAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
337 AM CDT FRI OCT 31 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- A HARD FREEZE IS LIKELY (>80 PERCENT CHANCE) EITHER TONIGHT
(MAINLY NORTHERN MISSOURI) OR TOMORROW NIGHT (ALL OF THE
FORECAST AREA).
- ASIDE FROM A CHANCE FOR SPRINKLES OR A LIGHT SHOWER LATE TODAY
AND THIS EVENING (MAINLY SOUTH OF KC), THE NEXT WEEK WILL
MAINLY BE DRY.
- TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO WELL-ABOVE-AVERAGE LEVELS BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 311 AM CDT FRI OCT 31 2025
THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN EARLY THIS MORNING IS THE HARD FREEZE
POTENTIAL TONIGHT AND TOMORROW NIGHT ACROSS THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES ARE PLENTY CHILLY EARLY THIS MORNING...MAINLY IN
THE 30S TO LOWER 40S. HOWEVER, ANY FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL BE
LOCALIZED AND FAIRLY BRIEF ONCE AGAIN. MEANWHILE, THE
NORTHWEST-FLOW PATTERN THAT HAS SETTLED INTO THE CENTRAL U.S.
WILL BE QUITE ACTIVE AND PROGRESSIVE THIS WEEKEND, WITH SEVERAL
PERTURBATIONS DIGGING SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. ONE SYSTEM WILL EJECT INTO THE OHIO VALLEY THIS MORNING,
WITH ANOTHER QUICK ON ITS HEELS IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS
SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE MISSOURI VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT. LARGE-SCALE LIFT WILL BE PRESENT, BUT THERE IS A
DISTINCT LACK OF SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE IN ADVANCE OF THE SYSTEM.
NEVERTHELESS, GIVEN THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH'S STRENGTHENING
EVOLUTION DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS, WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO
SEE A SPRINKLE OR SHOWER AS A DECENTLY STRONG ELEVATED FRONT
MOVES SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. MODELS
ARE HINTING AT THE POSSIBILITY, PRIMARILY SOUTH OF I-70 (AND
MORE LIKELY SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA).
THERE WILL BE SUBSTANTIAL CLOUD COVER IN ADVANCE OF THE TROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE QUESTION WILL BE HOW QUICKLY
THIS IS SHUNTED SOUTHWARD TONIGHT, AS THIS WILL HAVE
IMPLICATIONS ON HOW COLD NORTHERN MISSOURI GETS. MOST GUIDANCE
HAS THIS CLOUD COVER MAINLY SOUTH OF U.S. HIGHWAY 36 BY MID-TO-
LATE EVENING, WHICH WOULD CERTAINLY BE ADEQUATE TIME TO GET
TEMPERATURES TO FALL TO NEAR/BELOW FREEZING BY DAYBREAK
SATURDAY. HOWEVER, GUIDANCE CAN BE TOO ZEALOUS WITH SUCH SETUPS
IN THIS REGARD; FURTHERMORE, WINDS MAY STAY A TOUCH ELEVATED (5
TO 10 MPH) FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE NIGHT. THUS, THE POTENTIAL
FOR A FREEZE IN THESE AREAS IS AROUND 50 TO 70 PERCENT. AS A
RESULT, WENT WITH A FREEZE WATCH FOR NOW NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF
THE KC AREA TONIGHT. WILL SEE IF FORECAST CONFIDENCE INCREASES
LATER TODAY FOR AN UPGRADE TO A WARNING.
OF MUCH HIGHER CONFIDENCE (>80 PERCENT) IS THE FREEZE POTENTIAL
TOMORROW NIGHT. BY THIS POINT, WE WILL BE WELL UPSTREAM OF THE
STILL-STRENGTHENING UPPER LOW IN THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND
LOWER OHIO VALLEY REGION. A SURFACE HIGH WILL DRIFT OVER THE
MISSOURI VALLEY SATURDAY NIGHT, LEADING TO LIGHT WINDS AND
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. IF A FREEZE DOES NOT OCCUR TONIGHT IN
NORTHERN MISSOURI, IT WILL ALMOST CERTAINLY OCCUR SATURDAY NIGHT
(ALONG WITH THE REST OF THE AREA). A FREEZE WATCH HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY NIGHT.
TODAY'S HIGHS WILL BE NEAR AVERAGE (NEAR 60), BUT HIGHS ON
SATURDAY WILL BE ROUGHLY TEN DEGREES COLDER WITH A STIFF
NORTHWEST BREEZE. HOWEVER, RECOVERY WILL BE SWIFT BEYOND
SATURDAY, AS UPPER RIDGING PROGRESSES INTO THE CENTRAL U.S.
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE UPPER FLOW WILL REMAIN PROGRESSIVE,
BUT THE RIDGE SHOULD KEEP THE STORM TRACK WELL TO OUR NORTH.
WITH THE STRONGEST LIFT DISPLACED NORTHWARD AND EASTWARD, WE
WILL MERELY SEE DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS (TEMPERATURES AROUND
10-15 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK), WITH
OCCASIONAL BREEZINESS AS SYNOPTIC SYSTEMS MOVE THROUGH THE
NORTHERN U.S. THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT A STRONGER STORM SYSTEM
MAY DEVELOP LATE NEXT WEEK OR NEXT WEEKEND, BUT GIVEN THE
ANTECEDENT PROGRESSIVE PATTERN AND STRONG WESTERN-U.S. RIDGING,
SUSPECT WE MAY BE ON THE DRY/WINDY SIDE OF ANY SUCH SYSTEM THAT
MATERIALIZES.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1157 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE DURATION OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. WINDS REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE, GENERALLY OUT OF THE
WEST AND NORTH. WINDS PICK UP SLIGHTLY DURING THE DAY AS A WEAK
FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. SOME GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE BEHIND
THE FRONT, PARTICULARLY AT STJ, BECOMING MORE INTERMITTENT AS
THE BOUNDARY REACHED THE OTHER TERMINALS.
EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MO...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR MOZ017-020>025-
028>033-037>040-043>046-053-054.
FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
FOR MOZ028-029-037>040-043>046-053-054.
FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-030>033.
KS...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR KSZ025-057-060-
103>105.
FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
FOR KSZ025-057-060-103>105.
FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
KSZ102.
DISCUSSION...CMS
AVIATION...PESEL
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