366
FXUS63 KEAX 030444
AFDEAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1044 PM CST SUN NOV 2 2025
..06Z AVIATION UPDATE
KEY MESSAGES
- WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH MID WEEK.
- PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
AS THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 306 PM CST SUN NOV 2 2025
AFTER A COLD MORNING AND SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG, SKIES ARE NEARLY
CLEAR ACROSS THE AREA SAVE FOR A DISSIPATING CLOUD FIELD ACROSS
NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. TEMPERATURES HAVE MODERATED THIS
AFTERNOON AS YESTERDAY'S LOW DROPS INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN US. THIS
HAS ALLOWED THE RIDGE TO OUR WEST TO EXPAND INTO THE AREA, WHICH
WILL END UP BEING THE DOMINANT LARGE SCALE FEATURE THROUGH AT LEAST
MIDWEEK. COVERAGE OF FOG TONIGHT SHOULD BE MORE ISOLATED, MAINLY
LIMITED TO LOWER TERRAIN ALONG RIVERS.
THE RIDGE WILL GET COMPRESSED TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING AS A
TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS WILL BRING A
WEAK, DRY COLD FRONT TO THE AREA, SHIFTING WINDS TO OUT OF THE NORTH
OR NORTHEAST THROUGH MONDAY. OTHER THAN THE WIND SHIFT, THIS IS NOT
LIKELY TO BE VERY NOTICEABLE AS WARMER AIR QUICKLY ADVECTS IN BEHIND
THE FRONT. ACCORDINGLY, HIGHS WILL PEAK INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S ON
MONDAY. INCREASING MOISTURE ALOFT WILL BRING SOME MID/HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS MONDAY NIGHT, THOUGH DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE.
THE WARMING TREND CONTINUES ON TUESDAY AS A WARM SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-
LEVEL FLOW STRENGTHENS OVER THE REGION. THIS IS LOOKING LIKE THE
WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK, WITH HIGHS PEAKING IN THE 70S FOR MOST
LOCATIONS. ANOTHER WEAK FRONT WILL DROP HIGHS SLIGHTLY FOR
WEDNESDAY, BUT OTHERWISE LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED.
GUIDANCE IS STILL FAVORING THE NEXT SYSTEM ARRIVING SOMETIME IN THE
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT TIMEFRAME. CURRENTLY, THIS
APPEARS TO BE ON THE BACK END OF A TROUGH DROPPING INTO THE GREAT
LAKES. WHILE THERE IS STILL CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY WITH THE
PLACEMENT AND PROGRESSION OF THIS FEATURE, THE MOST FAVORABLE
LOCATIONS FOR A LITTLE RAIN WILL BE ACROSS NORTHERN AND EASTERN
MISSOURI WHERE PROBABILITIES ARE IN THE 20-30 PERCENT RANGE.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1042 PM CST SUN NOV 2 2025
VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE CURRENT TAF PERIOD AND
BEYOND. REASON FOR MULTI-LINE TAFS IN THIS CASE ARE THE SHIFTING
WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD, NEARLY DOING A FULL CLOCKWISE 360
DEGREE SHIFT. SUSTAINED WINDS TO REMAIN NEAR/UNDER 10 KTS.
EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
DISCUSSION...MYERS
AVIATION...CURTIS
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