723
FXUS63 KEAX 210509
AFDEAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1109 PM CST THU NOV 20 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- CLOUDY AND PATCHY FOG REST OF THURSDAY
- RAIN SHOWERS TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
- MORE RAIN START OF NEXT WEEK
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 350 PM CST THU NOV 20 2025
THE TRANSPORT OF MOISTURE INTO THE REGION IS BEING DRIVEN BY A DEEP
TROUGH, THE AXIS CENTERED JUST EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION. THIS IS PROMOTING SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS PRIMARILY IN THE
TEXAS PANHANDLE REGION AND HAS KEPT LOW-LEVEL FLOW SOUTHERLY, AS
WELL AS PUSHING A WARM FRONT FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TOWARD THE
OZARKS REGION. THERE IS MID-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS PRESENT OVER THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS WHICH HAS DEVELOPED A SURFACE ANTICYCLONE
CENTERED OVER THE DAKOTAS. WITH THE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT,
MOST OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND LOWER MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY HAVE
REMAINED VERY CLOUDY. STRONGER CVA SHOULD MOVE EAST OF THE H5 TROUGH
AXIS LATER THIS AFTERNOON, WHICH WILL LIFT THE TROUGH TO THE
NORTHEAST AND TRACK THE SURFACE CYCLONE CLOSER TO THE FORECAST AREA.
THIS CONTINUES TO PUSH THE WARM FRONT NORTHEASTWARD RESULTING IN
MORE MOISTURE TRANSPORT. ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL STRENGTHEN IN THIS
REGIME, AND EXPECTING RAIN SHOWERS TO DEVELOP LATE THIS EVENING, AND
WILL BE SUPPORTED BY THIS UPGLIDE THROUGH MUCH OF FRIDAY. SOME
INSTABILITY MAY DEVELOP WITHIN THE WAA REGIME BUT MOST MODEL SIGNALS
ARE KEEPING THIS CLOSER TO THE INTERSTATE 44 CORRIDOR AND SOUTH.
THIS IS ALSO WHERE THE HREF MEAN MUCAPE AXIS IS LOCATED. THEREFORE,
A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER MAY BE POSSIBLE BUT OVERALL BETTER
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BE WELL SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA. THE RAINFALL WILL BE WELCOMED GIVEN RECENT DROUGHT
CONDITIONS OVER THE PAST SEVERAL WEEKS ACROSS THE REGION.
DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO DEPICT A FAIRLY WIDESPREAD 0.50
TO 0.75 INCHES OF QPF FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING, WITH BANDS OF
OVER ONE INCH POSSIBLE. HREF LOCAL PROBABILITY MATCHED MEAN VALUES
SHOW A STRIPE OF 1.0 TO 1.5 INCHES GENERALLY ALONG INTERSTATE 70,
WITH A FEW HIGHER POCKETS. WHILE THESE HIGHER AMOUNTS SOMEWHERE IN
THE REGION CAN BE EXPECTED, THIS WILL LARGELY DEPEND ON WHERE THE
WARM FRONT STALLS BY SATURDAY BEFORE THE COLD FRONT MOVES IN AND THE
CYCLONE MOVES DOWNSTREAM. EVEN WITH THIS RAINFALL, FLOODING AND
OTHER HYDRO CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED, AS HOURLY RAINFALL
RATES ARE ONLY 0.1 TO 0.2 INCHES PER HOUR.
TROUGH EXITS TO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. A DEEPER
TROUGH ENTERS THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS AGAIN WHICH AMPLIFIED A MID-
LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS, DEVELOPING A SURFACE
ANTICYCLONE TO CLEAR OUT PRECIPITATION THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
SUNDAY EVENING, TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHWEST CONUS BEGINS TO LIFT
NORTHEASTWARD AGAIN PUSHING THE RIDGE AXIS AND SURFACE ANTICYCLONE
EASTWARD. STRONGER DCVA INTO THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS PROMOTES
SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS, AND LOW-LEVEL FLOW BECOMES SOUTHERLY ACROSS
MUCH OF THE CENTRAL CONUS INCLUDING THE FORECAST AREA. THIS STARTS
ANOTHER PERIOD OF STRONGER MOISTURE ADVECTION, AND WILL ALSO HELP
KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE AFTERNOONS MAINLY IN THE 50S AND 60S.
ANOTHER ROUND OF ISENTROPIC ASCENT STARTS AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING
WARM FRONT LATE SUNDAY AND THEN CONTINUES THROUGH MONDAY. THIS WILL
LIKELY RESULT IN WIDESPREAD RAIN ACTIVITY THROUGH MOST OF MONDAY.
QPF AMOUNTS ABOVE 0.50 INCHES ARE CURRENTLY BEING SIGNALED RIGHT
NOW. CURRENT MODEL OUTPUT SUGGESTS THAT BETTER INSTABILITY AND LIFT
FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OF THE
AREA AGAIN, THOUGH A NORTHWARD SHIFT COULD RESULT IN A FEW RUMBLES
OF THUNDER. BUT THIS WILL ALSO IMPACT HOURLY RAINFALL RATES.
STRATIFORM APPEARS TO BE THE MORE FAVORABLE MODE OF PRECIPITATION.
SO EVEN IF WE SEE START SEE ENSEMBLE SIGNALS FOR HEAVIER 24-36 HOURS
RAINFALL TOTALS, HOURLY RAINFALL RATES APPEAR TO REMAIN FAIRLY
LIGHT, WHICH WILL LIMIT MOST HYDRO/FLOODING CONCERNS. COLDER AIR
DOES COME IN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY, WITH
TEMPERATURES BELOW FREEZING. EARLIER MODEL RUNS WERE SUGGESTING SOME
PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL DURING THE SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES,
SUGGESTING A WINTRY MIX. RECENT GUIDANCE THOUGH DEPICTS
PRECIPITATION ENDING BEFORE THE SUB-FREEZING TEMPS COME IN.
THEREFORE, THE BULK OF THE FORECAST WILL BE RAIN, WITH ANY KIND OF
WINTRY-MIX VERY ISOLATED, AND WITH NO WINTRY ACCUMULATIONS AT THIS
TIME.
POLAR AIRMASS MOVES IN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM TOWARD THE END OF NEXT
WEEK, WHICH WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES MUCH LOWER THAN THEY HAVE BEEN
THIS PAST WEEK. CURRENT HIGHS ARE PROGGED IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S
WITH MORNING LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1109 PM CST THU NOV 20 2025
IFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON OR
EVENING, WHEN SOME DRIER AIR STARTS TO PUSH SOUTHWARD INTO THE
AREA. CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO MVFR AND EVENTUALLY VFR LATE IN THE
FORECAST. WINDS WILL BE STEADY FROM THE NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT INTO
TOMORROW AND SHIFT TO THE NORTH TOMORROW AFTERNOON/EVENING AS
THE DRIER AIR SHIFTS INTO THE AREA.
EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MO...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST FRIDAY FOR MOZ007-008-016-
017-024-025-032-033-039-040-045-046.
KS...NONE.
DISCUSSION...KRULL
AVIATION...CDB
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