507
FXUS63 KEAX 251955
AFDEAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
155 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- GUSTY CONDITIONS (25-35 MPH) THIS AFTERNOON AS MUCH COOLER AIR MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA. HIGHS TODAY MOSTLY IN THE 50S, TRENDING
COOLER FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THIS WEEK.
- THANKSGIVING IS ANTICIPATED TO REMAIN DRY AND COOL WITH HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.
- CONFIDENCE INCREASING IN A RAIN/LIGHT WINTRY PRECIP MIX FRIDAY
INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. BEST CHANCES FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW
REMAIN IN FAR NORTHEAST MO. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS REMAIN UNCERTAIN.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 154 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2025
TODAY, RATHER BREEZY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THOUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH
WIND GUSTS AS HIGH AS 25-35 MPH. A CLOSED LOW AT H500 DESCENDS FROM
THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS, PUSHING A SURFACE LOW INTO THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. THIS SURFACE LOW WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
AREA, USHERING IN A DRIER AIR MASS. THIS WILL RESULT IN SKIES
CLEARING OUT THIS AFTERNOON FOR MOST OF THE AREA. CLEARING SKIES
COUPLED WITH AN INCREASED PRESSURE GRADIENT AND SUFFICIENT MIXING
HAS YIELDED GUSTY WINDS RANGING FROM 25-35 MPH. A FEW 40 MPH WIND
GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY NEAR THE MO/IA BORDER, HOWEVER CONFIDENCE
IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO ISSUE ANY WIND HEADLINES. ALSO, AS THE FRONT
CONTINUES TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING, THERE
WILL BE A FEW LOW-END CHANCES (BELOW 20%) FOR LIGHT SHOWERS EAST OF
I-35. DRY AIR NEAR THE SURFACE WILL MAKE IT DIFFICULT FOR PRECIP TO
REACH THE GROUND. AT BEST, THERE WILL BE A FEW INCONSEQUENTIAL
SHOWERS/SPRINKLES DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING COMMUTE. FOR
TEMPERATURES, HIGHS FOR TODAY WILL RANGE MOSTLY IN THE 50S. AS WE
TRANSITION INTO THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT, ADDITIONAL MID LEVEL CLOUD
COVER IS EXPECTED WITH THE APPROACHING H500 CLOSED LOW. THIS COULD
PREVENT LOW TEMPERATURES FROM COMPLETELY BOTTOMING OUT ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THE COLD FRONT (ALBEIT TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE COLD).
LOWS FOR TOMORROW MORNING ARE ANTICIPATED TO RANGE IN THE UPPER 20S
TO LOW 30S, JUST BELOW FREEZING WHICH IS RIGHT ON TRACK FOR SEASONAL
AVERAGES.
CONDITIONS REMAIN DRY, BUT TREND COOLER FOR WEDNESDAY AND
THANKSGIVING AS A SURFACE HIGH TRANSITS FROM THE NORTHWEST BEHIND
THE FRONT. ADDITIONALLY, WE MAINTAIN NORTHWESTERLY/NORTHERLY
WINDFLOW THROUGH THIS TIME, RESULTING IN HIGHS RANGING AROUND THE
UPPER 30S TO MID 40S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S.
OUR ATTENTION SHIFTS TO LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS A MID-LEVEL
TROUGH PUSHES A SURFACE LOW AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
AREA. THIS WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN/WINTRY PRECIP. FOR
NOW, COVERAGE FOR LIGHT RAIN APPEARS TO BE WIDESPREAD WITH THE MOST
FAVORABLE AREAS FOR WINTRY PRECIP NORTH OF HWY-36, EAST OF I-35.
CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING IN MINOR ACCUMULATIONS AS MODELS REMAIN
CONSISTENT IN HIGHLIGHTING NORTHEAST MO. BELOW IS A CHART OF LREF
SNOW ACCUMULATION PROBABILITIES FOR LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.
>.5”>1”>2”
KIRKSVILLE AREA 48% 39% 20%
KC METRO AREA 6% 0% 0%
MARYVILLE AREA 15%12% 0%
MOBERLY AREA 42% 30%20%
ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN/WINTRY PRECIP LINGER SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES ITS TRACK
THROUGH THE AREA MAINLY NORTH OF I-70. AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES IN ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE FRONT WHICH WILL LIMIT MOISTURE. AS
A RESULT, CONFIDENCE FOR ANY PRECIP LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY IS
MUCH LOWER THAN LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. DETERMINISTIC MODELS
CONTINUE TO WAVER BETWEEN NO SNOW AND LIGHT SNOW AMOUNTS WITH EACH
MODEL RUN INCREASING UNCERTAINTY FOR LATE SATURDAY INTO EARLY
SUNDAY. AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES, CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO COOL SUNDAY
AND REMAIN COLD INTO MID-NEXT WEEK. HIGHS SEEM TO RANGE AROUND THE
UPPER 20S TO MID 30S WHICH IS WELL-BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1144 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2025
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPROVE AS WE HEAD INTO THE AFTERNOON AS
THEY CURRENTLY (AS OF 18Z) RANGE FROM LIFR TO VFR ACROSS THE AREA.
AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA TODAY, SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT
AND WINDS WILL GUST TO AROUND 25-28 KTS. WINDS WILL WEAKEN TO AROUND
12-15 KTS LATER THIS EVENING/TONIGHT AS WE LOSE DIURNAL HEATING.
WINDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN TO AROUND 20-22 KTS LATE TOMORROW
MORNING.
EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
DISCUSSION...COLLIER
AVIATION...COLLIER
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