487
FXUS63 KEAX 111015
AFDEAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
415 AM CST THU DEC 11 2025
KEY MESSAGES
* LIGHT PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE TODAY ACROSS NORTHERN MISSOURI-
THOUGH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.
* ARCTIC AIRMASS IS EXPECTED SATURDAY. ACCUMULATING SNOW IS LIKELY
ACROSS NORTHERN MISSOURI, SETTING THE STAGE FOR SUBZERO
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT AS SKIES CLEAR. LIGHT NORTH WINDS
COULD PRODUCE WIND CHILLS OF -15 TO -20 F ACROSS NORTHEAST
MISSOURI SUNDAY MORNING.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 415 AM CST THU DEC 11 2025
WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE NEAR FORT PECK LAKE IN EASTERN MONTANA AS
OF 09Z THIS MORNING IS EXPECTED TO BUILD SOUTHEAST THROUGHOUT THE
DAY. WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO LIFT
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION TODAY LEADING TO MILD TEMPERATURES
ROUGHLY SOUTH OF A LINE FROM MARYSVILLE TO BOONEVILLE. FARTHER
NORTH, TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN THE 30S. AS THE MID LEVEL WAVE
BUILD SOUTHEAST, COULD SEE SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION ACROSS IOWA
SPILLING INTO EASTERN MISSOURI POTENTIALLY CLIPPING SCHUYLER COUNTY
IN NORTHERN MISSOURI. WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S AND A DRY SUB
CLOUD LAYER, PRECIPITATION TYPE IS A BIT OF A QUESTION MARK BUT
THINK COLUMN WOULD EVAPORATIVELY COOL TO LARGELY SUPPORT VERY LIGHT
SNOW. WITH THAT SAID, SUSTAINED SATURATION IN THE DENDRITIC LAYER IS
VERY LIMITED. BEST CHANCE FOR SNOW IS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS
TODAY, BUT WILL BE FIGHTING DRY AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS.
SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO TRACK ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT WITH
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPING BEHIND THE DEPARTING WAVE ON FRIDAY.
TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WITH
925 HPA TEMPERATURES -2 TO -5 C YIELDING HIGHS IN THE 30S.
A MORE DYNAMIC SET UP THIS WEEKEND AS AIR FROM THE NORTHWEST
TERRITORIES PLUNGES SOUTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL US. THE LEADING EDGE
OF THE ARCTIC AIRMASS PROVIDES ADEQUATE LIFT TO LEAD TO A LIGHT SNOW
EVENT ACROSS NORTHERN MISSOURI. A BAND OF STRONG 750 FRONTOGENETIC
FORCING NORTH OF A LINE FROM MARYVILLE TO MOBERLY IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP ON SATURDAY ENHANCED BY A KISSING JET STRUCTURE. AS THE
ARCTIC AIR BUILD INTO THE REGION, THE DENDRITIC LAYER BUILDS IN
DEPTH FROM THE SURFACE TOWARDS 600 MB. THIS VERY EFFICIENT SNOW
PROCESS WILL EASILY GENERATE ACCUMULATING SNOW ACROSS NORTHERN INTO
EASTERN INTO EASTERN MISSOURI. LREF ENSEMBLE IS SUGGESTING ~0.1-
0.2" OF PRECIPITATION UNDERNEATH THE BAND. SNOW LIQUID RATIOS ARE
CURRENTLY 15-18:1, BUT WITH THE DEVELOPING DEEP DENDRITIC LAYER, THE
POTENTIAL OF SEEING 20-25:1 RATIOS IS THERE. THIS FRESH SNOW COVER
WILL SET THE STAGE FOR THE COLDEST NIGHT OF THE SEASON SO FAR
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. CURRENTLY, AM FORECASTING SUB-
ZERO TEMPERATURES OVER THE FRESH SNOW COVER NORTHEAST OF THE KC
METRO, BUT WITH 925 HPA TEMPERATURES PLUNGING TOWARDS -15 TO -20C,
WIDESPREAD LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS LOOKS LIKELY. WITH THE IMPACTS
OF THE FRESH SNOW COVER AND THE LINGERING LIGHT NORTH WINDS, COULD
SEE WIND CHILLS OF -15 TO -20 F ACROSS NORTHEAST MISSOURI.
A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK AS UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE ACROSS THE WEST BUILDS EAST. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO
RETURN ABOVE NORMAL REGIONWIDE BY TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 947 PM CST WED DEC 10 2025
GOOD FLYING CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS TAF ISSUANCE.
HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT WITH THAT
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITH LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS.
EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BT
AVIATION...COOLEY
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