614
FXUS63 KEAX 121749
AFDEAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1149 AM CST FRI DEC 12 2025
..UPDATED 18Z AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL POSSIBLE FOR NORTH/NORTHEAST MO SATURDAY
MORNING/AFTERNOON. SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS MAY RANGE FROM A DUSTING
TO 3 INCHES PRIMARILY FOR AREAS NORTH OF HWY-36 AND EAST OF I-35.
- BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES EXPECTED STARTING SUNDAY AM.
WIDESPREAD BELOW ZERO WIND CHILLS IN THE MORNING WITH HIGHS
RANGING FROM THE PRETEENS TO MID 20S.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 316 AM CST FRI DEC 12 2025
A MOSTLY QUIET DAY ANTICIPATED FOR TODAY WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES
THAN YESTERDAY. HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE IN THE 30S TO LOW 40S AS WE
MAINTAIN NORTHERLY WINDFLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF A WEAKENING SURFACE
LOW IN SOUTHEAST MO. THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN IS DEFINED BY A BROAD, MID
TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WITH ITS AXIS JUST OFF THE PACIFIC COAST. A
CLOSED H500 LOW JUST ENTERING MANITOBA WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK TO THE
SOUTHEAST TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. A FEW DISTURBANCES AROUND
H500-H700 OUT AHEAD OF THIS CLOSED LOW, COLLOCATED WITH A BAND OF
MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN SOME MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS STICKING
AROUND THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY.
GOING INTO SATURDAY, THE PATTERN SHIFTS EASTWARDS AS THE MID TO
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES OVER THE WESTERN U.S. AND THE CLOSED H500
LOW PASSES THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION. A H500 SHORTWAVE MOVING
ALONG THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE RIDGE WILL EJECT OUT OF THE NORTHERN
PLAINS EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. THIS WILL AID IN SETTING UP AN AREA
OF FRONTOGENESIS FROM H850-H700 THAT WILL TRACK TO THE SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE REGION. ALL OF THESE FEATURES WILL BE LOCATED WITHIN A
RIGHT-REAR QUADRANT OF THE JET WHICH WILL INCREASE ASCENT. AS IT
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON, LIGHT TO
MODERATE SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE PRIMARILY FOR NORTH AND NORTHEASTERN
MO. THE MOST FAVORABLE AREAS FOR ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL SEEM TO BE
NORTH OF HWY-36 AND EAST OF I-35. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE DEEP
DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONES IN NORTHEAST MO WHICH COULD SUGGEST THE
POTENTIAL FOR 15 TO 20:1 SNOW RATIOS YIELDING A DRIER SNOWFALL. QPF
VALUES AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH, COUPLED WITH THESE RATIOS INDICATE
SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS FROM 1-3 INCHES FOR MOST FAVORABLE AREAS
(NORTH OF A LINE FROM MERCER TO MACON COUNTIES). THIS FALLS IN LINE
WITH THE LREF AS PROBABILITIES SIGNIFICANTLY DIMINISH FOR 24-HR
SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS GREATER THAN 3 INCHES. BETTER FORCING AND
COLDER TEMPERATURE PROFILES (HIGHER SNOW RATIOS) REMAIN FARTHER TO
THE NORTH/NORTHEAST OF OUR CWA. SNOW CHANCES TAPER OFF BY THE
AFTERNOON.
AS A SURFACE HIGH DESCENDS INTO ND, OUR WINDS REMAIN OUT OF THE
NORTH. CAA WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE TO TREND COOLER FOR
SATURDAY. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE TEENS TO UPPER 30S. AREAS THAT
RECEIVE SNOW WILL BE ON THE LOWER END OF THAT RANGE AS THE FRESHLY-
FALLEN SNOW WILL LIKELY IMPEDE DAYTIME HEATING. LATE SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY AS THE SURFACE HIGH APPROACHES OUR AREA, SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT
AND WINDS WILL WEAKEN AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES. THIS WILL
SET THE STAGE FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING WHICH WILL ALLOW EARLY MORNING
SUNDAY TEMPERATURES TO RANGE FROM BELOW ZERO TO SINGLE DIGITS (THE
COLDEST TEMPERATURES OF THE SEASON TO THIS POINT). WIDESPREAD BELOW
ZERO WIND CHILLS ARE EXPECTED WITH A FEW AREAS NEAR PUTNAM,
SCHUYLER, AND ADAIR COUNTIES POSSIBLY REACHING COLD WEATHER ADVISORY
CRITERIA. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS TO DETERMINE THE
NECESSITY FOR HEADLINES. HIGHS FOR SUNDAY RANGE FROM THE PRETEENS TO
MID 20S.
FORTUNATELY, THESE BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS
THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO SHIFT EASTWARD. HIGHER
HEIGHTS COUPLED WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL ALLOW US TO REBOUND FAIRLY
QUICKLY FOR MONDAY. HIGHS RETURN MUCH CLOSER TO SEASONAL AVERAGES,
RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S. TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO
WARM, PEAKING AT WIDESPREAD 50S TO LOW 60S BY MID-WEEK. A FEW LOW-
END CHANCES FOR PRECIP RETURN FOR THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1143 AM CST FRI DEC 12 2025
OVERCAST STRATUS DECK IS STILL PRESENT ACROSS MOST OF EASTERN
KANSAS TO CENTRAL MISSOURI. EXPECTING TO SEE THAT CLEARING OVER
THE KANSAS FLINT HILLS MOVE EASTWARD PROVIDING A GRADUAL
IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR BY THE EVENING, AND BACK TO VFR AT SOME
POINT OVERNIGHT. MOST OF THE SATURDAY PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED
TO BE NORTHEAST OF THE KC METRO. WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH THE
POTENTIAL FOR FLURRIES TO WORK SOUTHWESTWARD, BUT THERE WILL BE
DRY AIR TO CONTEND WITH. SNOWFALL IS MORE LIKELY FOR NORTHEAST
MISSOURI, WITH PARTS OF CENTRAL MISSOURI POTENTIALLY SEEING A
DUSTING.
EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
DISCUSSION...COLLIER
AVIATION...KRULL
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