739
FXUS63 KEAX 131724
AFDEAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1124 AM CST SAT DEC 13 2025
..UPDATED 18Z AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- LOW PROBABILITIES (<10%) OF FREEZING DRIZZLE TODAY.
- MINOR ACCUMULATING SNOW FOR FAR NORTHERN AND NORTHEASTERN MISSOURI.
SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY MY BUILD SOUTHWARD WITH FLURRIES OR
VERY LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE.
- BITTERLY COLD SATURDAY NIGHT - MONDAY MORNING. THE BRUNT OF THE
COLD WILL BE ON SUNDAY MORNING.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 249 AM CST SAT DEC 13 2025
THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY SIGNAL IN MODEL GUIDANCE/ SOUNDINGS FOR
LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE TODAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A DEEPENING
LAYER OF SATURATION ON THE SOUTHWESTERN SIDE OF THE AREA OF SNOW
THAT WILL AFFECT NORTHERN MO. THE NAM IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH
THIS DEEPER SATURATED AREA FROM SOON AFTER SUNRISE INTO THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. OTHER MODELS, WHILE THE DO SHOW SOME SATURATION, IT
IS THINNER/ SHALLOWER. WITH THIS AREA OF SATURATION BELOW FREEZING,
BUT NOT COLD ENOUGH, AT LEAST INITIALLY, TO PRODUCE CLOUD ICE, THERE
IS POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE. GIVEN THE LOW PROBABILITIES
IN THE ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE, AND MAJORITY OF MODELS NOT SHOWING AS DEEP
OF SATURATION, HAVE ONLY ADDED SOME MENTION OF THIS TO THE FORECAST.
AFTER COLLABORATION WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES, DECIDED TO HOLD OFF ON
A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY AT THIS POINT. BUT WILL MESSAGE THIS MORE
IN THE MORNING SUITE OF PRODUCTS/ GRAPHICS GIVEN THE LOW END
POTENTIAL.
OTHERWISE, FOCUS IS ON THE MINOR ACCUMULATING SNOW THAT WILL AFFECT
MAINLY FAR NORTHERN AND NORTHEASTERN MO. LITTLE HAS CHANGED WITH
AMOUNTS AND LOCATION OF THE MINOR ACCUMULATIONS. BUT MODELS HAVE
TRENDED COLDER AND THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT SNOW OR
FLURRIES TO OCCUR FURTHER SOUTH AND WEST. THE FORECAST STILL CALLS
FOR AN INCH OF SNOW OR MORE NORTH OF KIRKSVILLE TO PRINCETON LINE
WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS FURTHER NORTHEAST INTO THE MAIN SWATH THAT WILL
TRACK PRIMARILY THROUGH IA. THIS MAY CLIP SCHUYLER COUNTY, IN OUR
EXTREME NORTHEAST WITH SEVERAL INCHES POSSIBLE THERE. OVERALL, THE
SETUP REMAINS THE SAME WITH STRONG ASCENT AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH
INTO THE RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF THE UPPER JET. MODEST FRONTOGENESIS
IS ALSO PRESENT, NOTABLY BETWEEN 800MB AND 600MB, ENHANCING SNOW
AMOUNTS THROUGH THE MAIN SWATH ACROSS IA. CURRENTLY, THE PLACEMENT
OF THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY LOOKS GOOD AND NO CHANGES ARE BEING
MADE WITH THIS FORECAST.
WHILE SURFACE FLOW IS ALREADY OUT OF THE NORTH WITH MODEST CAA
OCCURRING, THIS SYSTEM WILL REINFORCE AND ENHANCE THAT CAA WITH
ANOTHER BLAST OF COLDER AIR. THIS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND DROP TEMPERATURES INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS BY
SUNDAY MORNING. PARTS OF NORTHERN MO WILL LIKELY SEE LOWS IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO. WITH WINDS OF 5-10 MPH DURING THE MORNING
HOURS, WIND CHILL VALUES WILL BE NEAR ZERO THROUGH MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA AND IN THE -15 TO -25 RANGE IN FAR NORTHERN MO. THE
GOING COLD WEATHER ADVISORY CAPTURES THIS WELL AND NO CHANGES ARE
NEEDED WITH THIS FORECAST.
THIS BLAST OF COLD AIR WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING
SPREADS EAST INTO THE CENTER OF THE COUNTRY EARLY IN THE WORK
WEEK. THIS RIDGING BROADENS AND FLATTENS BY MIDWEEK BUT UPPER-
LEVEL FLOW BECOMES QUASI-ZONAL WITH NO SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVES OR
SHOTS OF COLD AIR. IN FACT, ONCE WE MOVE BEYOND TODAY'S SYSTEM,
THE REST OF THE FORECAST IS DRY, AT LEAST FOR NOW, GIVEN THE
LACK OF ANY NOTABLE WAVES MOVING THROUGH. THAT MAY CHANGE BY
THURSDAY AS DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE DOES SHOW A WAVE TRACKING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST, TRAILING A FRONT
INTO THE MID AND LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY. FOR NOW, THE GREATEST
PROBABILITIES FOR ANY PRECIPITATION ARE ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF
OF MISSOURI.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1122 AM CST SAT DEC 13 2025
FRONT IS MOVING THROUGH WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR STRATUS CLOUD DECK
ACROSS THE AREA. SNOW IS EXPECTED IN NORTHEAST MISSOURI. WE HAVE
BEEN WATCHING FOR LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE POTENTIAL FROM CENTRAL
MO TO EASTERN KS, BUT SO FAR THE NEAR SURFACE LAYER HAS REMAINED
DRY WITH DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES DROPPING WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE. THEREFORE FZDZ MENTIONS WILL BE LEFT OUT OF THE TAFS.
AS THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES THROUGH, GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT TO VFR IS
EXPECTED.
EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MO...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CST
SUNDAY FOR MOZ006>008-016-017-025.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
MOZ008.
KS...NONE.
DISCUSSION...CDB
AVIATION...KRULL
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