281
FXUS63 KEAX 140509
AFDEAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1109 PM CST SAT DEC 13 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- SNOW ENDING THIS EVENING
- VERY COLD SUNDAY
- WARM UP THIS WEEK
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 258 PM CST SAT DEC 13 2025
STRONG MID AND UPPER-LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE
ENTIRE CENTRAL CONUS, PUSHING A STRONG SURFACE ANTICYCLONE AND ITS
ARCTIC AIRMASS TOWARD THE LOWER MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY. A COLD
FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS PUSHED SOUTHWARD TOWARD INTERSTATE 44 CORRIDOR
AS OF A 20Z OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS. THERE IS ANOTHER BOUNDARY MOVING
SOUTH FROM IOWA THAT IS MORE NOTABLE FOR ITS MOISTURE GRADIENT THAN
TEMPERATURE GRADIENT, WITH DEWPOINTS QUICKLY DROPPING INTO THE SINGLE
DIGITS BEHIND THIS. THIS WILL EVENTUALLY PUSH THROUGH THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA. A FEW AREAS OF FGEN ARE STILL PROMOTING SOME SNOW
ACTIVITY ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MISSOURI AS OF 20Z. THIS SHOULD
EVENTUALLY BE COMING TO AN END BETWEEN 22Z-23Z THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING AS THAT DRY AIR FILTERS IN. FOR MUCH OF THE
MORNING WE WERE MONITORING THE 1KM-2KM AGL THAT WAS SATURATED WITH
SUPERCOOLED DROPS. FOR MOST OF THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON, DEWPOINT
DEPRESSIONS WERE NEARLY 10F, WHICH HELPED TO COMBAT FREEZING DRIZZLE
POTENTIAL. THERE IS STILL AN OUTSIDE CHANCE TO SEE PATCHY ICING.
HOWEVER, THE LAST TWO HOURS, ACARS SOUNDINGS OUT OF MCI HAVE SHOWN
THAT THE 1KM-3KM AGL HAS COOLED TO AROUND -10C TO -12C, WHICH WOULD
IMPLY BETTER POTENTIAL FOR DENDRITES, NOT SUPERCOOLED DROPS, MEANING
MORE SNOW FLURRY OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY RATHER THAN FREEZING
DRIZZLE. THE AWOS AT CAMERON ALONG WITH MODOT TRAFFIC CAMERAS AT
INTERSTATE 35 AND HIGHWAY 36 SHOWED MORE DENDRITE/FLAKE ACTIVITY
THEN ANY KIND OF LIQUID DROPS. AS THIS AREA OF WEAK RADAR RETURNS
MOVED SOUTHWARD, CONDITIONS WERE EITHER DRY AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER
REMAINED MOISTURE DEPRIVED, OR ANYTHING SPOTTED WAS COMING DOWN AS
SNOW. THIS LITTLE BAND MOVING SOUTHWARD THOUGH IS OUTPACING THE
UPPER-LEVEL SUPPORT FOR LIFT, AND MAY NOT LAST MUCH LONGER AS WE
HEAD INTO THE EVENING. THEREFORE, FREEZING DRIZZLE PROBABILITIES ARE
CONTINUING TO DROP FOR WESTERN MO AND EASTERN KS. STRONG SURFACE
ANTICYCLONE OVERNIGHT CENTERS IN THE EASTERN PLAINS, AND OVERALL
STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW PROMOTES ROBUST CAA AND PUSHES IN THE ARCTIC
AIRMASS. FOR OUR NORTHEAST COUNTIES, THE FORECAST IS STILL ON TRACK
FOR AIR TEMPERATURES TO DROP A FEW DEGREES BELOW ZERO, WITH
NORTHERLY WINDS BETWEEN 5 TO 10 KTS DROPPING WIND CHILL VALUES
BETWEEN 12F TO 19F BELOW ZERO. THE COLD WEATHER ADVISORY WILL REMAIN
IN PLACE FOR OUR NORTHEAST COUNTIES THROUGH LATE SUNDAY MORNING.
ELSEWHERE, OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS MOST
OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH WIND CHILLS JUST A TAD BELOW ZERO. FOR THE
SOUTHWESTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE FORECAST AREA, HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO
ONLY REACH THE LOWER 20S.
MONDAY, SURFACE ANTICYCLONE GETS PUSHED INTO THE GULF REGION AND
WILL START TO PROVIDE LOW-LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW INTO THE LOWER
MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY. A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH PROPAGATING OUT OF THE
SOUTHWESTERN CONUS WILL PROVIDE DCVA INTO THE HIGH SOUTHERN PLAINS
AND ATTEMPT SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS, PROVIDING REINFORCEMENT TO THE
LOWER-LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW. FOR MONDAY, THIS MAY BOOST TEMPERATURES
BACK INTO THE LOWER 40S, WITH UPPER 30S IN OUR NORTHEASTERN
COUNTIES. WHILE A WEAK H5 SHORT-WAVE MAY MOVE THROUGH, THE BULK OF
THE FORCING MISSES FOR ANY KIND OF PRECIPITATION STAYS AWAY FROM THE
FORECAST AREA, WITH CONTINUED WAA. THERE IS GROWING MODEL CONSENSUS
THAT TEMPERATURES WILL REACH BACK INTO THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S
BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. A FEW DETERMINISTIC SOLUTIONS TRIES TO
PAINT LOWER 60S. VALUE THIS HIGH ARE CURRENTLY OUTLIERS AMONGST
MULTIPLE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS. BOX AND WHISKERS PLOTS OF HIGH
TEMPERATURES USING NBM MEMBERSHIP DOES SHOW WIDER INNER-QUARTILE
SPREAD. THIS IS LARGELY ATTRIBUTED TO THE TIMING OF THE SHORT-WAVE
PROPAGATION AND HOW QUICKLY A WARM FRONT MAY SURGE INTO THE AREA.
BUT WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY, PROBABILITIES OF EXCEEDING 50F FOR MOST
OF THE AREA IS AROUND 60 PERCENT, AND HIGHER FOR SOUTHWESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA. NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN APPEARS TO BE THURSDAY
WHEN ANOTHER TROUGH FROM CANADA DROPS SOUTHWARD. THURSDAY IS ALSO
WHEN MULTIPLE ENSEMBLE SUITES BEING TO SHOW INCREASED PROBABILITIES
FOR DETECTABLE PRECIPITATION.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1110 PM CST SAT DEC 13 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE
REGION. LIGHT NORTH WINDS WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT, BECOME
VARIABLE DURING THE DAY AS THE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD,
THEN BECOME LIGHT FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST AS THAT HIGH
SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA.
EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MO...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST SUNDAY FOR MOZ006>008-016-
017-025.
KS...NONE.
DISCUSSION...KRULL
AVIATION...CDB
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