410
FXUS63 KEAX 141727
AFDEAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1127 AM CST SUN DEC 14 2025
..UPDATED 18Z AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- BITTERLY COLD THIS MORNING WITH SUBZERO WIND CHILL VALUES AND
-10 TO -20 WIND CHILL VALUES IN FAR NORTHERN AND NORTHEASTERN
MO.
- TEMPERATURES MODERATE QUICKLY BY MONDAY WITH ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS
MONDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
- PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE MINIMAL OVER THE NEXT WEEK WITH THE
BEST CHANCES COMING ON THURSDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 209 AM CST SUN DEC 14 2025
A STRONG, NEARLY 1040MB HIGH PRESSURE AREA IS SLIDING SOUTHWARD OVER
THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS IS ALLOWING BITTERLY COLD AIR TO
SPILL INTO THE REGION STRAIGHT FROM NORTHWESTERN CANADA. EARLY
MORNING LOW TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW SINGLE DIGITS BELOW
ZERO ACROSS FAR NORTHERN MO, TO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO
ELSEWHERE. WITH THE WIND FACTORED IN, EARLY MORNING WIND CHILL
VALUES AS COLD AS -20 ARE LIKELY FOR FAR NORTHERN AND NORTHEASTERN
MO. THE GOING COLD WEATHER ADVISORY CAPTURES THIS WELL AND NO
CHANGES TO ITS AREA OR TIMING ARE NEEDED.
AS THAT SURFACE HIGH MOVES OVER THE AREA TODAY, WINDS WILL SHIFT TO
THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. SO WHILE IT WILL BE
WELL BELOW NORMAL TODAY, THE SOUTHERLY SHIFT IN THE WINDS WILL START
A QUICK WARMING TREND FOR THE WORK WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. BY
MONDAY, HIGHS CLIMB ROUGHLY 20 DEGREES WARMER THAN SUNDAY, WITH
ANOTHER 5-10 DEGREES ADDED FOR TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. WITH
SURFACE FLOW BECOMING SOUTHWESTERLY AND STRONG WESTERLY WARM
ADVECTION ALOFT, WE'LL BE PUSHING 60 DEGREES WEDNESDAY, AS WELL AS
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE FOR WEDNESDAY SHOW
PROBABILITIES OF 10-40% FOR HIGHS TO BE 60 OR HIGHER. THESE
PROBABILITIES INCREASE FOR SATURDAY TO ROUGHLY 50% ALONG AND SOUTH
OF HIGHWAY 50.
FOR THURSDAY, A FAIRLY STRONG SHORTWAVE TRACKS ACROSS THE MIDDLE OF
THE COUNTRY. THIS WILL BRING US A CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION, WHICH
CURRENTLY LOOKS TO BE ALL LIQUID, AND KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM BEING
AS WARM AS WEDNESDAY OR FRIDAY-SATURDAY. THE CURRENT FORECAST ONLY
SHOWS A SMALL PORTION OF OUR EASTERN ZONES WITH SLIGHT CHANCES FOR
RAIN THURSDAY MORNING. AS MODEL VARIABILITY BECOMES LESS IN THE
COMING DAYS, THESE PROBABILITIES MAY INCREASE AND SHIFT FURTHER WEST
TO BE MORE IN LINE WITH THE DETERMINISTIC GFS AND ECMWF. BOTH OF
THESE MODELS SHOW VERY STRONG MOISTURE TRANSPORT AHEAD OF THE
SURFACE FRONT WHICH SHOULD BE MOVING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA EARLY
THURSDAY, BRINGING A CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1126 AM CST SUN DEC 14 2025
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT MOST
OF SUNDAY. WIND GUSTS WILL INCREASE MONDAY AS THE CENTER OF THE
HIGH PRESSURE EXITS SOUTHWARD, AND A STRONGER PRESSURE GRADIENT
DEVELOPS BEHIND IT.
EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
DISCUSSION...CDB
AVIATION...KRULL
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