205
FXUS63 KEAX 150505
AFDEAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1105 PM CST SUN DEC 14 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- ONE MORE COLD NIGHT
- WARM UP THIS WEEK
- NEXT RAIN CHANCES COME LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 147 PM CST SUN DEC 14 2025
HIGH PRESSURE IS THE STORY OF THE DAY. AS OF 20Z, THE CENTER OF THE
HIGH IS DIRECTLY OVER MISSOURI. THE DEEP TROUGH AXIS IS OVER THE
GREAT LAKES INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. THERE IS SOME CLOUD COVER IN
FAR EASTERN MISSOURI THAT IS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE MID-LEVEL
CYCLONIC FLOW. THE WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS LED TO LIGHT WINDS
TODAY. INSOLATION MANAGED TO GET TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE 20S FOR
WESTERN MO AND EASTERN KS. THE FURTHER EAST FROM THERE,
TEMPERATURES WERE ONLY IN THE TEENS. CALM WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES WILL ALLOW FOR EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL COOLING OVERNIGHT,
RESULTING IN ONE MORE COLD NIGHT. WIND CHILLS WILL BE IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS SLIGHTLY ABOVE ZERO FOR THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA, WHILE WIND CHILLS ARE FORECAST TO DIP SLIGHTLY BELOW ZERO,
ESPECIALLY FOR OUR NORTHEAST COUNTIES. DUE THE DRY AIR IN PLACE, FOG
IS NOT EXPECTED DESPITE CALM WINDS AND STRONGER RADIATIONAL COOLING.
PERHAPS SOME RIVER VALLEYS MAY FOG IN A LITTLE BIT.
NORTHWESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE PUSH AVA AND THE
SURFACE ANTICYCLONE INTO THE GULF REGION. PRESSURE GRADIENT ON BACK
SIDE OF THIS SYSTEM WILL MAKE FOR GUSTY WINDS DURING MONDAY
AFTERNOON, PERHAPS BETWEEN 20-25 MPH. A MID-LEVEL OPEN-WAVE TROUGH
BEGINS TO EXIT THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS. THIS CREATED A COMPACT H5
RIDGE THAT PASSES THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS, WHILE ANOTHER RIDGE
AXIS MOVES ACROSS THE ROCKIES. THE PATTERN SOMEWHAT RESEMBLES A REX
BLOCK PATTERN, BUT STRONGER PV ANOMALY OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
SENDS A FEW SHOTS OF VORTICITY TO DEAMPLIFY THE RIDGE MOVING ACROSS
THE ROCKIES, ALLOWING THE SHORT-WAVE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST CONUS TO
PROGRESS. MODEST DCVA INTO THE HIGH PLAINS OF TEXAS WILL ALLOW FOR
SOME LIFT AND ATTEMPT SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS, THOUGH THE POSITIVE TILT
TO THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL CREATE A DISRUPTION TO THE
PROCESS. BUT WITH THE EXITING SURFACE ANTICYCLONE INTO THE GULF AND
SLIGHTLY EASTWARD, THIS WILL SETUP LOW-LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW INTO
THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY, AND WILL START TO SEE A GRADUAL UPWARD
TREND IN TEMPERATURES, WITH MONDAY HITTING IN THE LOWER 40S FOR MOST
OF THE AREA, AND OUR NORTHEAST COUNTIES SEEING THE UPPER 30S. THIS
WILL CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY, WITH POTENTIAL FOR AREAS FROM KC METRO
AND SOUTHWARD TO HIT THE LOWER 50S. MONDAY AND TUESDAY, MOISTURE
TRANSPORT WILL BE SLOWER, AND WHILE THERE WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR MID-
LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS, THE STRONGEST AREAS OF VORTICITY WILL MISS OUR
AREA TO THE SOUTH AND TO THE NORTH, WHICH WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. USING NBM MEMBERSHIP, PROBABILITIES FOR MOST
LOCATIONS IN OUR AREA OF HITTING AT LEAST 50F ON TUESDAY IS UPWARDS
OF 70 PERCENT, A BIT LOWER FOR OUR NORTHEAST OUT NEAR KIRKSVILLE.
WEDNESDAY, MODEST MID-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS MOVES THROUGH, ALONG WITH
850MB THERMAL RIDGE THAT WILL PROVIDE THE BEST WAA THROUGH THIS
WEEK, POTENTIALLY SENDING TEMPS INTO THE MID 50S FOR MOST OF THE
AREA. NORTHEAST MISSOURI MAY STAY IN THE UPPER 40S. INNER-QUARTILE
SPREAD FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY DOES START TO SHOW LARGER
SPREAD, THIS MAY BE ATTRIBUTED TO DIFFERENCES IN EXPECTED CLOUD
COVER AMONGST VARIOUS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS.
STRONGER MID-LEVEL TROUGH IS PROGGED TO DIG SOUTHWARD LATE WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY, RESULTING IN A STRONGER SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST, WITH COLD FRONT EXTENDING INTO
THE LOWER MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY. GEFS AND OTHER ENSEMBLE SUITES HAVE
PULLED PROBABILITIES FOR DETECTABLE PRECIPITATION FURTHER WEST THAN
IT HAD IN PREVIOUS DAYS. STILL A DECENT AMOUNT OF SPREAD IN THE
TIMING AND DEPTH OF THIS TROUGH TOWARD THE MIDDLE-END OF NEXT WEEK.
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO REMAIN WARM ENOUGH FOR THIS TO BE MOSTLY RAIN.
THERE ARE ALSO LOW END PROBABILITIES FOR SOME CAPE TO DEVELOP WHICH
RESULT IN A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER. THIS WILL BRING COOLER
TEMPERATURES BY FRIDAY. CURRENT DETERMINISTIC NBM FORECAST DOES WARM
CONDITIONS UP BY NEXT WEEKEND, BUT A SLIGHTLY DEEPER DIVE SHOWS A
LARGE SPREAD FOR THE INNER-QUARTILE VALUES FOR MULTIPLE
PARAMETERS.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1106 PM CST SUN DEC 14 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST. THE MAIN ISSUE
WILL BE WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS AND SOME POTENTIAL FOR
LLWS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH A FEW HOURS AFTER SUNRISE. OVERNIGHT,
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH, BENEATH A DEEP
INVERSION. WINDS ABOUT 1500-2000 FT AGL, WILL ALSO INCREASE BUT
WILL ONLY VARY IN DIRECTION BY 20 TO POSSIBLY 30 DEGREES TO THE
SOUTHWEST. THIS IS BORDERLINE LLWS WITH A GRADUAL CHANGE IN WIND
DIRECTION. SO FOR NOW WILL KEEP LLWS OUT OF THE FORECAST.
TOMORROW MORNING, WINDS INCREASE AND BECOME GUSTY OUT OF THE
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST, BEFORE DIMINISHING LATER IN THE AFTERNOON.
EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
DISCUSSION...KRULL
AVIATION...CDB
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