283
FXUS63 KEAX 011723
AFDEAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1123 AM CST THU JAN 1 2026
..UPDATED 18Z AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY CONDITIONS WITH NEAR TO/ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THE
NEXT 7 DAYS WITH NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER EXPECTED.
- WARMING TREND ANTICIPATED FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK.
- PRECIP CHANCES ARRIVE NEXT THURSDAY
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 256 AM CST THU JAN 1 2026
HAPPY NEW YEAR! 2026 WILL COME IN LIKE A LAMB, WITH DRY CONDITIONS
AND NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AT LEAST FOR THE FIRST WEEK OF
THE YEAR. A WEAK BACK DOOR COLD FRONT HAS SUNK THROUGH THE CWA
OVERNIGHT BRINGING SOME MODEST COLD AIR ADVECTION AND A STRATUS
DECK. HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA TODAY
PROVIDING WEAK MIXING. THERE IS ALSO SOME CONCERN THAT THE STRATUS
DECK MAY LIMIT HEATING TODAY HOWEVER, MODELS AT THIS TIME SUGGEST
THE LOW STRATUS WILL SINK SOUTH OF THE AREA AND HIGHS WILL REACH THE
MID 30S (NORTH) TO THE MID TO UPPER 40 (SOUTHWEST). TOMORROW THE
AREA WILL BE WEDGE BETWEEN A STORM SYSTEM WITH AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE
LOW TO THE SOUTH AND A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH.
THIS WILL LEAVE THE LOCAL AREA UNDER EASTERLY SURFACE FLOW WHICH
WILL HOLD HIGHS AGAIN IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S. FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY A UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EASTWARD
FROM THE WESTERN ROCKIES INTO THE EASTERN ROCKIES. THIS WILL PROVIDE
HEIGHT RISES ACROSS THE AREA HOWEVER WEAK MIXING DUE TO SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE RESIDING OVER THE AREA WILL KEEP HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S TO
UPPER 40S. SUNDAY, THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN ROCKIES
MOVES INTO THE WESTERN PLAINS PROVIDING ADDITIONAL HEIGHT RISES
ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. IN ADDITION, THE SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE SLIDES EAST OF THE AREA AND WAA GETS UNDERWAY. THIS WILL
ALLOW HIGHS TO RISE INTO THE 40S TO LOWER 50S.
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN THE FIRST WEEK OF THE NEW YEAR
AS THE AXIS OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE
AREA. THIS COUPLED WITH CONTINUED WAA WILL MOVE HIGHS WELL ABOVE
NORMAL INTO THE MID 50S TO MID 60S. TUESDAY, AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST ACTING TO FLATTEN THE UPPER RIDGE AND FORCE A WEAK COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE AREA. HOWEVER, WITH A LACK OF COLD AIR BEHIND THE
FRONT, HIGHS WILL STILL RANGE INTO THE MID 50S TO MID 60S. BY
WEDNESDAY, THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES QUASI-ZONAL. WEAK MIXING
COURTESY OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL COOL TEMPERATURES A FEW
DEGREES INTO THE UPPER 40S TO NEAR 60. ALSO, ON WEDNESDAY, A UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ONSHORE IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS. THIS
FEATURE WILL QUICKLY MOVE THROUGH THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS BY THURSDAY AND MAY PROVIDE THE NEXT CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1122 AM CST THU JAN 1 2026
SATELLITE TRENDS ARE INDICATING THIS STRATUS DECK WILL BE AROUND
FOR THE MOST OF THE DAY. AN IMPROVEMENT TO LOWER MVFR IS
POSSIBLE FOR A FEW HOURS, BUT EXPECTING CEILINGS TO LOWER BACK
TO IFR OVERNIGHT AGAIN.
EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
DISCUSSION...73
AVIATION...KRULL
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