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FXUS63 KEAX 021728
AFDEAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1128 AM CST FRI JAN 2 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* AREAS OF FOG THIS MORNING, MAINLY ALONG/SOUTH OF I-70
- SOME POCKETS OF DENSE FOG POSSIBLE
* LIGHT WINTRY MIX PRECIPITATION LIKELY FOR NW/N MISSOURI THIS
EVENING/OVERNIGHT
- FREEZING DRIZZLE MAY PREVAIL AT TIMES
- BEST CHANCES OVER NW MISSOURI
* SEASONABLY WARM/ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES RETURN LATE WEEKEND INTO
NEXT WEEK
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 337 AM CST FRI JAN 2 2026
FORECAST LARGELY HIGHLIGHTED BY OVERALL QUIET CONDITIONS AND WARMING
TEMPERATURES LATE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK AS RELATIVELY LOW AMPLITUDE
NW FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE ZONAL AND DEVOID OF NOTABLE
DISTURBANCES. HOWEVER, PRIOR TO THAT (AND ON GOING EVEN) THERE
ARE A COUPLE OF ITEMS OF NOTE THAT MAY PROVIDE AT LEAST NUISANCE
TRAVEL CONDITIONS.
FIRST OF WHICH IS ONGOING AREAS OF FOG. AS COOL/COLD FRONTAL
BOUNDARY HAS DROPPED INTO/THROUGH THE CWA, FOG HAS GENERALLY
DEVELOPED NEAR THE LEADING EDGE AND BACKSIDE. THUS FAR, WIDESPREAD
DENSE FOG HAS LARGELY BEEN AVOIDED, BUT A FEW SITES IN/AROUND THE
SHARED EAX/SGF/LSX CWA BOUNDARIES HAVE BEEN ABLE TO ACHIEVE <1/2 MI
VISIBILITIES AT TIMES. PROJECTING DENSE FOG POTENTIAL INTO MORNING
COMMUTE REMAINS TROUBLESOME WITH CIRRUS STREAMING OVERHEAD. INITIAL
REPORTS OF DENSE FOG APPEARS TO HAVE BEEN TIED MOST CLOSELY TO AREAS
OF THIN TO NO CIRRUS OVERTOP LOW-LEVEL STRATUS OR POCKETS OF CLEAR
SKIES ALTOGETHER. SOUNDINGS EXHIBIT CHARACTERISTICS FAVORABLE FOR
TOP-DOWN FOG PROCESS (LOW-LEVEL STRATUS "FALLING TO THE GROUND"),
WHICH SUSPECT IS WHAT OCCURRED IN A FEW CASES AND FURTHER BOLSTERED
BY 5-MIN OBSERVATIONS AT SITES LIKE SEDALIA/KDMO. WITH MORE
SUBSTANTIAL CIRRUS NOW BEGINNING TO STREAM OVERHEAD, DO NOT EXPECT
DENSE FOG TO BECOME WIDE SPREAD ENOUGH TO WARRANT A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY. FOG IN GENERAL TOO SHOULD GRADUALLY DROP SOUTHWARD WITH
THE BOUNDARY AND GENERAL CAA, KEEPING THIS ACTIVITY PREDOMINANTLY
SOUTH OF THE MISSOURI RIVER CURRENTLY AND POSSIBLY BY/SOUTH OF I-70
BY THE MORNING COMMUTE.
NEXT UP WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT WINTRY MIX OR FREEZING
DRIZZLE LATER THIS EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS A COMPACT
SHORTWAVE DROPS THROUGH THE NW FLOW. SYNOPTIC GUIDANCE HAS SUBTLY
TICKED UPWARDS WITH THIS FEATURE OF LATE AND TOO HAS BEEN REFLECTED
WITHIN THE CAMS AS WE FURTHER ENTER THEIR WINDOWS. KEY WORD BEING
"SUBTLY" AS THIS FEATURE CONTINUES TO HAVE MORE NEGATIVES THAN
POSITIVE GOING FOR IT, WITH REGARDS TO PRECIPITATION GENERATION.
FOCUSING ON THOSE NEGATIVES (LIFT IS THE ONLY REAL POSITIVE), THERE
REMAINS A FAIRLY SUBSTANTIAL DRY LAYER BETWEEN THE NEAR-SURFACE
MOISTURE (BELOW THE CURRENT STRONG LOW LEVEL INVERSION) AND THE MID-
LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SHORTWAVE, IT WILL BE LOSING
MOISTURE AS IT PRECIPITATES UPSTREAM OVER NEBRASKA, AND WILL
GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. AGAIN, NOT A WHOLE LOT
GOING FOR IT. THAT SAID, MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST AN AT TIMES TRICKY
P-TYPE PICTURE WHEN/IF IT DOES PRECIPITATE. INITIAL TOP-DOWN
SATURATING SHOULD WET-BULB THE WARM NOSE BELOW FREEZING, BUT MAY NOT
FULLY EAT AWAY AT THAT DRY LAYER. THERE DOES LOOK TO BE ICE
INTRODUCTION INITIALLY AS THERE IS SATURATION WITHIN THAT
TEMPERATURE LAYER, BUT AGAIN MAY NOT FULLY EAT AWAY AT THE DRY LAYER
BELOW. IT MAY REDUCE THAT DRY AIR ENOUGH FOR SOME SEEDER-FEEDER
PROCESS, YIELDING LIGHT SNOW. AS THE WAVE CONTINUES SE ACROSS THE
AREA AND DEEPER LIFT BEGINS TO SUBSIDE AND ICE INTRODUCTION IS LOST,
POSSIBLY YIELDING AN HOUR OR TWO WHERE FREEZING DRIZZLE/SPRINKLES
MAY PREVAIL. FORTUNATELY, MUCH OF THIS ACTIVITY LOOKS TO BE EVENING
INTO OVERNIGHT, HELPING LIMIT ANY POTENTIAL ISSUES. BEST CHANCES FOR
ANY TRAVEL ISSUES WILL BE OVER NW AREAS WHERE TIMING WILL BE EARLIER
IN THE EVENING AND BEST/STRONGEST LIFT AND MOISTURE PROFILES WILL BE
PRESENT. A LOT OF WORDS FOR SOMETHING THAT MAY NOT OCCUR OR AFFECT
MUCH OF THE AREA. THIS ALL MOVES OUT BY SATURDAY DAYBREAK.
MUCH OF THE REST OF THE 7-DAY FORECAST IS HIGHLIGHTED BY MID-UPPER
LEVEL HEIGHT RISES TO END THE WEEKEND AND LARGELY QUIET ZONAL FLOW
THROUGH THE WEEK. PUT ANOTHER WAY, TODAY WILL BE THE COLDEST DAY OF
THE 7-DAY FORECAST. HIGHS ACROSS THE AREA RETURN BACK ABOVE NORMAL
BY SUNDAY AND EVEN MORE SO THROUGH NEXT WEEK AS HIGHS IN THE 50S TO
MID 60S APPEAR POISED TO PREVAIL. THE NEXT NOTABLE PRECIPITATION
OPPORTUNITY MAY COME AT THE VERY END OR JUST OUTSIDE OF THE 7-DAY
FORECAST AS A DEEPER TROUGH IS DEPICTED MOVING OUT OF THE WESTERN
CONUS. THIS IS BOLSTERED BY ~50%-75% OF EURO/GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS
DEPICTING MEASURABLE QPF LATE NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1128 AM CST FRI JAN 2 2026
A MIX OF VFR/MVFR CIGS AT THE TERMINALS THIS MORNING AS WE'VE
SEEN A CLEARING BAND BREAK UP THE MVFR CIGS NEAR THE KC METRO.
MODELS KEEP THIS BAND CLEAR OVER KMCI AND EXPANDS INTO KMKC
LATER THIS AFTERNOON WITH CIGS EXPECTED TO IMPROVE TO VFR.
ELSEWHERE, EXPECT PREDOMINANTLY MVFR CONDITIONS AT KIXD AND KSTJ
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WATCHING FOR A 40% CHANCE OF -SN/SLEET
OVER NORTHWEST MISSOURI OVERNIGHT, MAINLY IMPACTING AREAS NORTH
OF KSTJ. ONLY ABOUT A 30% CHANCE IT MAKES IT AS FAR SOUTH AS
KSTJ, AND 15% CHANCE IT MAKES IT AS FAR SOUTH AS KMCI. IF SO,
IMPACTS WOULD BE SEEN FROM AROUND 05-09Z WITH REDUCED VISIBILITY
AND CIGS LOWERING TO IFR. EXPECT VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS TO HOLD
OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING WITH LIGHT WINDS TURNING MORE
NORTHERLY TOWARD 12-18Z.
EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
DISCUSSION...CURTIS
AVIATION...MCCOY
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