513
FXUS63 KEAX 021943
AFDEAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
143 PM CST FRI JAN 2 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* 30-40% CHANCE LIGHT WINTRY MIX LIKELY FOR NW/N MISSOURI THIS
EVENING/OVERNIGHT
- FREEZING DRIZZLE POSSIBLE (20% CHANCE) AT TIMES
- BEST CHANCES OVER NW MISSOURI
* SEASONABLY WARM/ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES RETURN LATE WEEKEND INTO
NEXT WEEK
* NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE A 30-50% CHANCE FOR
RAIN THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 143 PM CST FRI JAN 2 2026
PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON
WITH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S. HIGHS
ARE ON TRACK TO PEAK IN THE LOW-TO-MID 30S EXCEPT FOR OUR FAR
SOUTH COUNTIES MAY APPROACH 40 IF SKIES CAN CLEAR. MAIN FORECAST
CONCERN THROUGH THE NEXT FEW DAYS IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A LIGHT
WINTRY MIX THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. A WEAK
SHORTWAVE MOVING OUT OF EASTERN NEBRASKA WILL BRING ENOUGH
FORCING FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW A FAIRLY
SATURATED LAYER THROUGH THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE INDICATING A
BETTER CHANCE FOR FLURRIES OR SLEET THAN FREEZING RAIN, BUT
CAN'T COMPLETELY RULE IT OUT AS HI-RES MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES
TO INDICATE A LOW CHANCE (15%). IN ANY CASE, GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A
30-40 PERCENT CHANCE OF THIS LIGHT WINTRY MIX MAINLY NORTH OF
A LINE FROM ST JOSEPH TO MOBERLY WITH PRECIP CHANCES DECREASING
TO THE EAST AS THIS BAND DISSIPATES. ANY LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE
OR SLEET COULD LEAD TO A FEW SLICK SPOTS ON UNTREATED ROADS, SO
USE CAUTION IF YOU HAVE TO TRAVEL LATE TONIGHT. PRECIP MAY START
AS EARLY AS 7 PM AND SHOULD END BY 3 AM.
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WE SEE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING BUILD BACK
UP OVER THE ROCKIES LEADING TO INCREASING HEIGHTS OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS WILL LEAD TO A WARMING TREND, WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES GETTING UP INTO THE MID 50S NORTH TO MID 60S SOUTH
BY MONDAY. WE'LL KEEP THESE WARMER TEMPERATURES IN PLACE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY WITH OUR NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN ARRIVING ON THURSDAY AS
A VIGOROUS UPPER-LEVEL WAVE MOVES IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THIS
WILL LEAD OFF THE TRANSITION IN THE UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN TO A
MORE ACTIVE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW REGIME. ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR
RAIN APPEAR LIKELY GOING INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1128 AM CST FRI JAN 2 2026
A MIX OF VFR/MVFR CIGS AT THE TERMINALS THIS MORNING AS WE'VE
SEEN A CLEARING BAND BREAK UP THE MVFR CIGS NEAR THE KC METRO.
MODELS KEEP THIS BAND CLEAR OVER KMCI AND EXPANDS INTO KMKC
LATER THIS AFTERNOON WITH CIGS EXPECTED TO IMPROVE TO VFR.
ELSEWHERE, EXPECT PREDOMINANTLY MVFR CONDITIONS AT KIXD AND KSTJ
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WATCHING FOR A 40% CHANCE OF -SN/SLEET
OVER NORTHWEST MISSOURI OVERNIGHT, MAINLY IMPACTING AREAS NORTH
OF KSTJ. ONLY ABOUT A 30% CHANCE IT MAKES IT AS FAR SOUTH AS
KSTJ, AND 15% CHANCE IT MAKES IT AS FAR SOUTH AS KMCI. IF SO,
IMPACTS WOULD BE SEEN FROM AROUND 05-09Z WITH REDUCED VISIBILITY
AND CIGS LOWERING TO IFR. EXPECT VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS TO HOLD
OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING WITH LIGHT WINDS TURNING MORE
NORTHERLY TOWARD 12-18Z.
EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
DISCUSSION...MCCOY
AVIATION...MCCOY
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