182
FXUS63 KEAX 030456
AFDEAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1056 PM CST FRI JAN 2 2026
..UPDATED 06Z AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
* 30-40% CHANCE LIGHT WINTRY MIX LIKELY FOR NW/N MISSOURI THIS
EVENING/OVERNIGHT
- FREEZING DRIZZLE POSSIBLE (20% CHANCE) AT TIMES
- BEST CHANCES OVER NW MISSOURI
* SEASONABLY WARM/ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES RETURN LATE WEEKEND INTO
NEXT WEEK
* NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE A 30-50% CHANCE FOR
RAIN THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 143 PM CST FRI JAN 2 2026
PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON
WITH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S. HIGHS
ARE ON TRACK TO PEAK IN THE LOW-TO-MID 30S EXCEPT FOR OUR FAR
SOUTH COUNTIES MAY APPROACH 40 IF SKIES CAN CLEAR. MAIN FORECAST
CONCERN THROUGH THE NEXT FEW DAYS IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A LIGHT
WINTRY MIX THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. A WEAK
SHORTWAVE MOVING OUT OF EASTERN NEBRASKA WILL BRING ENOUGH
FORCING FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW A FAIRLY
SATURATED LAYER THROUGH THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE INDICATING A
BETTER CHANCE FOR FLURRIES OR SLEET THAN FREEZING RAIN, BUT
CAN'T COMPLETELY RULE IT OUT AS HI-RES MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES
TO INDICATE A LOW CHANCE (15%). IN ANY CASE, GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A
30-40 PERCENT CHANCE OF THIS LIGHT WINTRY MIX MAINLY NORTH OF
A LINE FROM ST JOSEPH TO MOBERLY WITH PRECIP CHANCES DECREASING
TO THE EAST AS THIS BAND DISSIPATES. ANY LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE
OR SLEET COULD LEAD TO A FEW SLICK SPOTS ON UNTREATED ROADS, SO
USE CAUTION IF YOU HAVE TO TRAVEL LATE TONIGHT. PRECIP MAY START
AS EARLY AS 7 PM AND SHOULD END BY 3 AM.
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WE SEE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING BUILD BACK
UP OVER THE ROCKIES LEADING TO INCREASING HEIGHTS OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS WILL LEAD TO A WARMING TREND, WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES GETTING UP INTO THE MID 50S NORTH TO MID 60S SOUTH
BY MONDAY. WE'LL KEEP THESE WARMER TEMPERATURES IN PLACE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY WITH OUR NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN ARRIVING ON THURSDAY AS
A VIGOROUS UPPER-LEVEL WAVE MOVES IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THIS
WILL LEAD OFF THE TRANSITION IN THE UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN TO A
MORE ACTIVE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW REGIME. ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR
RAIN APPEAR LIKELY GOING INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1053 PM CST FRI JAN 2 2026
RADAR RETURNS IN NORTHWEST MISSOURI ARE STILL ENCOUNTERING A DRY
LAYER BELOW IT, WITH THE NEAREST PRECIPITATION REPORT OCCURRING
IN OMAHA IN THE PAST FEW HOURS. A LIGHT WINTRY MIX IS STILL
POSSIBLE IN NORTHWEST MISSOURI HEADING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
THE STJ AND KC METRO TERMINALS CONTINUE TO TREND DRY, PERHAPS A
FEW FLURRIES SPOTTED AT SOME POINT SATURDAY MORNING. THERE ARE
STILL CLOUDS BETWEEN 1-2KFT AGL, BUT MOST OBSERVATIONS ARE
SHOWING THESE ARE SCATTERED, WITH CEILINGS LOCATED MUCH HIGHER.
THEREFORE, MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED, THOUGH A FEW POCKETS
OF MVFR CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT. SKIES GRADUALLY CLEAR
LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
DISCUSSION...MCCOY
AVIATION...KRULL
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page