022
FXUS63 KEAX 031135
AFDEAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
535 AM CST SAT JAN 3 2026
..12Z AVIATION UPDATE
KEY MESSAGES
* WARMING, SEASONABLY WARM/ABOVE NORMAL, TEMPERATURES THROUGH MID-
WEEK
- HIGHS RISING INTO THE 50S TO MID 60S
- NORMAL HIGHS ARE MID-UPPER 30S
* NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION ARRIVES LATTER PORTION OF NEXT WEEK.
- 25-50% CHANCES BY OVERNIGHT WED INTO THUR
- GREATEST CHANCES CURRENTLY OVER E/SE AREAS
- ADDITIONAL CHANCES (20-30%) ROUND OUT WORK WEEK
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 321 AM CST SAT JAN 3 2026
MUCH ADO ABOUT NOTHING WITH REGARDS TO THE WINTRY MIX/FREEZING
DRIZZLE POTENTIAL YESTERDAY EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE
MID-UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE DROPPING THROUGH THE NW FLOW STRUGGLED TO
OVERCOME FAIRLY SUBSTANTIAL DRY AIR. EVEN UPSTREAM, IN NEBRASKA,
MAJORITY OF PRECIPITATION THAT REACHED THE GROUND ENDED UP AS SNOW
OR QUICKLY TURNED TO SNOW, LIMITING ICY HAZARD CONCERNS. WITHIN THE
LOCAL AREA/CWA, ONLY A COUPLE OF OBSERVATIONS OF WINTRY MIX (UP AT
KSTJ) ASSOCIATED WITH THE "STRONGEST" OF RADAR RETURNS. OTHERWISE,
RADAR OBSERVERS SAW FAIRLY EXPANSIVE WEAK RETURNS, BUT LITTLE TO
NOTHING REACHED THE GROUND. AT THIS POINT IN TIME, THE SHORTWAVE
CONTINUES TO DRIFT SE, GRADUALLY WEAKENING, AND ANY ASSOCIATED RADAR
RETURNS WILL BE OUT OF THE AREA BY 6AM/12Z.
THE NEXT 5 DAYS OR SO WILL BE HIGHLIGHTED BY QUIET AND WARMING
SENSIBLE WEATHER CONDITIONS. WHILE NW FLOW ALOFT WILL LINGER THROUGH
THE WEEKEND, AREA WILL EXPERIENCE WARMING TEMPERATURES IN RESPONSE
TO HEIGHT RISES AND RETURN OF SOUTHERLY WINDS AS THE CURRENT ROCKIES
RIDGE DRIFTS OUT INTO THE PLAINS. EXPECT SEASONABLE HIGHS TODAY IN
THE MID 30S TO LOW 40S FOR MOST, THEN A HANDFUL OF DEGREES WARMER
SUNDAY. BY EARLY WEEK, LARGE SCALE FLOW BEGINS TO TAKE ON A MORE
ZONAL LOOK AND REMAINS QUIET, ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO SETTLE INTO
SEASONABLY WARM TERRITORY WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S TO MID 60S THROUGH
THE FIRST HALF OF THE WORK WEEK.
BY THE MIDDLE PORTION OF THE WORK WEEK, LARGE SCALE PATTERN CHANGES
BEGIN TO SET THE TABLE FOR THE NEXT OPPORTUNITY(IES) FOR PRECIPITATION.
DETERMINISTIC SYNOPTIC MODELS AND THEIR ENSEMBLES ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT, GENERALLY DROPPING A CLOSED MID-UPPER LOW DOWN ALONG
THE CALIFORNIA COAST MID-WEEK BEFORE TRACKING INLAND FOLLOWED BY
A TRAILING OPEN WAVE DROPPING THROUGH PNW AND INTO THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. THESE WAVES WILL WORK TO REINTRODUCE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES AS EARLY AS OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY (25%-50%) AS GULF MOISTURE LIFTS NORTHWARD AND
ADDITIONAL CHANCES (20%-30%) THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK
IF NOT EARLY WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES TOO EVENTUALLY REGRESS
TOWARDS SEASONAL NORMS IN RESPONSE TO EVENTUAL COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE, APPEARING MOST LIKELY SOMETIME FRIDAY.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 521 AM CST SAT JAN 3 2026
NON-VFR CLOUD COVER EVOLUTION AND PLACEMENT HAS PROVEN TO BE
TROUBLESOME OVERNIGHT/THIS MORNING. ISSUES DUE TO MULTIPLE
CLOUD LAYERS OBSCURING LOWEST LEVEL CLOUDS AT TIMES, POOR
HANDLING WITHIN HI- RES GUIDANCE, AND AT TIMES NON-UNIFORM
DEVELOPMENT AND EROSION. WHILE 12Z TAF ISSUANCE SUGGESTS VFR
THROUGHOUT, AN MVFR PERIOD MAY YET BE SEEN THIS MORNING WITH
DECKS CURRENTLY SITUATED TO THE W AND NW OF SITES. THE UPSTREAM
(NW) DECK IN NEBRASKA IS THE LEAST LIKELY TO AFFECT ANY SITES
WITH STEERING FLOW EXPECTED TO PUSH PRIMARILY EASTWARD. DECK
SITUATED IN KS WOULD BE THE MOST LIKELY FOR THE KC METRO SITES
SHOULD ITS EASTERN EDGE SEE ANY EXPANSION OVER THE NEXT HR OR
TWO, THOUGH STEERING FLOW AND EVENTUAL UPTICK IN DIURNAL HEATING
WORK AGAINST THAT PLAY.
EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
DISCUSSION...CURTIS
AVIATION...CURTIS
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