472
FXUS63 KEAX 032058
AFDEAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
258 PM CST SAT JAN 3 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* WARMING, ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH MID-WEEK
- HIGHS RISING INTO THE 50S TO MID 60S
- NORMAL HIGHS ARE MID-UPPER 30S
* NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION ARRIVES LATTER PORTION OF NEXT WEEK.
- 25-40% CHANCES BY OVERNIGHT WED THROUGH FRI
- GREATEST CHANCES CURRENTLY OVER E/SE AREAS
* DRY WEATHER RETURNS SATURDAY WITH TEMPERATURES COOLING BACK
TOWARD NORMAL.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 258 PM CST SAT JAN 3 2026
SKIES HAVE CLEARED ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON WITH NEARLY
CALM AND VARIABLE WINDS AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES ACROSS THE
REGION. THIS HAS ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE MID-TO-
UPPER 30S, ON TRACK TO PEAK IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S THIS
AFTERNOON.
RIDGING IN PLACE ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS WILL BE DISRUPTED BY A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING OUT OF THE ROCKIES ON SUNDAY. THIS WAVE
WILL TRACK A SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. AHEAD OF
THIS LOW, WE'LL SEE WINDS SHIFT TO SOUTHERLY WITH A DEEPENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT ENHANCING WARM-AIR ADVECTION INTO EASTERN
KANSAS AND WESTERN MISSOURI SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. STRONGER
ADVECTION MEANS WARMING TEMPERATURES, WITH HIGHS GETTING INTO
THE MID 40S TO MID 50S SUNDAY, AND MID 50S TO MID 60S ON MONDAY.
WITH THIS LOW OFF TO THE NORTHEAST BY LATE MONDAY, WE'LL SEE
FLOW TRANSITION BACK MORE WESTERLY, LEADING TO A PLATEAU IN OUR
TEMPERATURES THROUGH MIDWEEK, WITH HIGHS REMAINING IN THE MID
50S TO MID 60S, WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR JANUARY.
AS THE RIDGING BREAKS DOWN INTO A MORE ZONAL-FLOW PATTERN, WE
SEE A SERIES OF WAVES MOVE THROUGH NEXT WEEK. THE NEXT TROUGH
MOVES ACROSS THE ROCKIES LATE SUNDAY NIGHT, THIS TIME TRACKING
A DRY LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THROUGH THE FOUR CORNERS OF KS, MO,
NE, AND IA MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THIS WILL BRING HIGH CLOUDS AND
A SHIFT BACK BRIEFLY TO NORTHWESTERLY WINDS TUESDAY EVENING BUT
LITTLE ELSE AS TEMPERATURES REMAIN FAIRLY STEADY.
THE NEXT, MORE DYNAMIC SYSTEM DEVELOPS WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY,
THIS TIME ADVECTING IN MOISTURE FROM THE GULF TO FEED RAIN
CHANCES TOWARD THE LATTER HALF OF THE WORK-WEEK. WHILE THE MAIN
MOISTURE BAND SETS UP TO OUR EAST BRINGING HEAVIER RAIN CHANCES
LIKELY TO EASTERN MISSOURI AND ILLINOIS, WE SHOULD SEE AT LEAST
SOME RAIN BETWEEN THIS AND THE SECOND TRAILING LOW THAT
DEVELOPS AND MOVES IN FRIDAY.
ENSEMBLES DRY US BACK OUT GOING INTO THE WEEKEND WITH
TEMPERATURES COOLING BACK DOWN TOWARD NORMAL.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1129 AM CST SAT JAN 3 2026
A CLOUD BANK WITH CIGS AROUND FL010-FL015 IS SLOWLY BREAKING UP
ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS, BUT HAS DEVELOPED SOME SCATTERED LOW CU
ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER IMPACTING KSTJ, KMKC, AND TO A LESSER
EXTENT KMCI. THIS SHOULD MIX OUT BY 20Z WITH THE CLOUD BANK
RETREATING SOUTHWARD OUT OF KIXD LEAVING VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE
REST OF THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS OUT OF THE NORTHWEST TODAY WILL
BECOME VARIABLE AS THEY SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING.
WE'LL SEE SOME HIGH CLOUDS MOVE THROUGH OVERNIGHT, BUT VFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF
PERIOD.
EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
DISCUSSION...MCCOY
AVIATION...MCCOY
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