354
FXUS63 KEAX 032324
AFDEAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
524 PM CST SAT JAN 3 2026
..UPDATED 00Z AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
* WARMING, ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH MID-WEEK
- HIGHS RISING INTO THE 50S TO MID 60S
- NORMAL HIGHS ARE MID-UPPER 30S
* NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION ARRIVES LATTER PORTION OF NEXT WEEK.
- 25-40% CHANCES BY OVERNIGHT WED THROUGH FRI
- GREATEST CHANCES CURRENTLY OVER E/SE AREAS
* DRY WEATHER RETURNS SATURDAY WITH TEMPERATURES COOLING BACK
TOWARD NORMAL.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 258 PM CST SAT JAN 3 2026
SKIES HAVE CLEARED ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON WITH NEARLY
CALM AND VARIABLE WINDS AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES ACROSS THE
REGION. THIS HAS ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE MID-TO-
UPPER 30S, ON TRACK TO PEAK IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S THIS
AFTERNOON.
RIDGING IN PLACE ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS WILL BE DISRUPTED BY A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING OUT OF THE ROCKIES ON SUNDAY. THIS WAVE
WILL TRACK A SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. AHEAD OF
THIS LOW, WE'LL SEE WINDS SHIFT TO SOUTHERLY WITH A DEEPENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT ENHANCING WARM-AIR ADVECTION INTO EASTERN
KANSAS AND WESTERN MISSOURI SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. STRONGER
ADVECTION MEANS WARMING TEMPERATURES, WITH HIGHS GETTING INTO
THE MID 40S TO MID 50S SUNDAY, AND MID 50S TO MID 60S ON MONDAY.
WITH THIS LOW OFF TO THE NORTHEAST BY LATE MONDAY, WE'LL SEE
FLOW TRANSITION BACK MORE WESTERLY, LEADING TO A PLATEAU IN OUR
TEMPERATURES THROUGH MIDWEEK, WITH HIGHS REMAINING IN THE MID
50S TO MID 60S, WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR JANUARY.
AS THE RIDGING BREAKS DOWN INTO A MORE ZONAL-FLOW PATTERN, WE
SEE A SERIES OF WAVES MOVE THROUGH NEXT WEEK. THE NEXT TROUGH
MOVES ACROSS THE ROCKIES LATE SUNDAY NIGHT, THIS TIME TRACKING
A DRY LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THROUGH THE FOUR CORNERS OF KS, MO,
NE, AND IA MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THIS WILL BRING HIGH CLOUDS AND
A SHIFT BACK BRIEFLY TO NORTHWESTERLY WINDS TUESDAY EVENING BUT
LITTLE ELSE AS TEMPERATURES REMAIN FAIRLY STEADY.
THE NEXT, MORE DYNAMIC SYSTEM DEVELOPS WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY,
THIS TIME ADVECTING IN MOISTURE FROM THE GULF TO FEED RAIN
CHANCES TOWARD THE LATTER HALF OF THE WORK-WEEK. WHILE THE MAIN
MOISTURE BAND SETS UP TO OUR EAST BRINGING HEAVIER RAIN CHANCES
LIKELY TO EASTERN MISSOURI AND ILLINOIS, WE SHOULD SEE AT LEAST
SOME RAIN BETWEEN THIS AND THE SECOND TRAILING LOW THAT
DEVELOPS AND MOVES IN FRIDAY.
ENSEMBLES DRY US BACK OUT GOING INTO THE WEEKEND WITH
TEMPERATURES COOLING BACK DOWN TOWARD NORMAL.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 523 PM CST SAT JAN 3 2026
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP SKIES CLEAR MOST OF THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL SLOWLY SHIFT. HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL
MOVE IN SUNDAY AFTERNOON, BUT BASES WILL BE VFR.
EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
DISCUSSION...MCCOY
AVIATION...KRULL
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