500
FXUS63 KEAX 040904
AFDEAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
304 AM CST SUN JAN 4 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* BREEZY SOUTH WINDS TODAY, STRONGEST OVER W/NW MISSOURI AND INTO
PORTIONS OF KANSAS, NEBRASKA, AND IOWA.
- GUSTS INTO THE 30S MPH POSSIBLE, EASING AS YOU MOVE EASTWARD
* WARMING, ABOVE NORMAL, TEMPERATURES THROUGH MID-WEEK
- HIGHS RISING INTO THE 50S TO MID 60S
- NORMAL HIGHS ARE MID-UPPER 30S
* NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION ARRIVES LATTER PORTION OF NEXT WEEK.
- 25-40% CHANCES BY THURSDAY
- GREATEST CHANCES OVER E/SE AREAS
* DRY WEATHER RETURNS SATURDAY WITH TEMPERATURES COOLING BACK
TOWARD NORMAL
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 303 AM CST SUN JAN 4 2026
QUIET AND MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS HAVE PREVAILED OVERNIGHT THANKS TO
SURFACE HIGH SLIDING THROUGH THE REGION AND MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
WORKING INTO/THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS. WITH LIGHT WINDS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE PASSING SURFACE HIGH, A NUMBER OF LOCATIONS WERE ABLE TO
QUICKLY APPROACH AND EVEN SURPASS (NOT NECESSARILY IN A WAY PEOPLE
WOULD LIKE) ORIGINALLY FORECAST LOWS, SETTLING INTO THE LOWER 20S
AND EVEN TEENS IN SOME LOCATIONS.
SOUTHERLY WINDS AND GENERAL WAA RAMP UP ACROSS THE AREA TODAY WITH
THE EASTWARD DEPARTURE OF THE SURFACE HIGH AND BUILDING LEE
CYCLOGENESIS ACROSS THE WESTERN CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS. A
SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE MID-UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL PUSH A
SURFACE LOW INTO/ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS TODAY,
HELPING INCREASE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE WESTERN CWA. AS A
RESULT, WIND GUSTS INTO THE 30S MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS W/NW
MISSOURI AND NE KANSAS, EASING AS YOU WORK EASTWARD FROM THERE.
CERTAINLY SHORT OF ANY WIND ADVISORY CONSIDERATION, BUT BREEZY/WINDY
NONETHELESS AND WILL BE MOST NOTICEABLE FOR ANY TRAVEL ALONG E-W
ORIENTED HIGHWAYS/INTERSTATES. EXPECT HIGHS UPWARDS OF 5 TO 10
DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY INTO THE 40S/LOW 50S, WITH GREATEST
INCREASES OVER THE WESTERN AREAS WHERE WAA/SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE
STRONGEST.
SAID MID-UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TODAY AND A SERIES OF SUBSEQUENT
SHORTWAVES INTO THE NEW WORK WEEK WILL WORK FLATTEN THE EXISTING
RIDGE AND YIELD A MORE ZONAL MID-UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN. THAT WILL
EFFECTIVELY PUT A CAP ON HOW MUCH THE AREA CAN WARM, BUT NOT BEFORE
TEMPERATURES RISE ANOTHER HANDFUL OR MORE DEGREES OVER TODAY.
SYNOPTIC GUIDANCE AND ASSOCIATED ENSEMBLES PREDOMINANTLY DEPICT
HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOW 50S TO MID 60S MON-THUR FROM N TO S
ACROSS THE CWA, AND THAT "CONFIDENCE" IS TOO DEPICTED VIA NBM OUTPUT
WITH MAXT SPREADS OF 5 DEG F OR LESS THROUGH WED. DRY CONDITIONS TO
BROADLY PREVAIL DURING THIS TIME AS WELL WITH STRONGEST/DEEPEST LIFT
DISPLACED NORTHWARD AND GENERAL LACK OF SUBSTANTIAL SUPPORTIVE
MOISTURE.
LATE WEEK CONTINUES TO BE THE NEXT "GOOD" OPPORTUNITY FOR ANY
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION CHANCES AS A PAIR OF WESTERN WAVES BRING
MORE SUBSTANTIAL MID-UPPER LEVEL PATTERN CHANGES. LEADING CUTOFF LOW
REMAINS EXPECTED TO DIVE DEEP DOWN THE CALIFORNIA COAST AND INTO
NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA BEFORE BEGINNING TO TRACK MORE DUE EASTWARD
WEDNESDAY. BY LATER WEDNESDAY, ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL BEGIN TO DIG
INTO THE PNW AND TOWARD THE FOUR CORNERS REGION BY EARLY THURSDAY.
NOW, THE PROGRESSION OF EACH AND POTENTIAL INTERPLAY SEEMS TO MUDDY
THE WATERS SOME ON EXACTLY WHERE AND WHEN BEST PRECIP CHANCES WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. THERE HAS BEEN A NOTABLE SLOW DOWN TO ONSET
WITHIN NBM COMPARED TO PREVIOUS RUNS, NOW MORE TOWARD THURSDAY
AFTERNOON WITH CHANCES CONTINUING INTO FRIDAY. DETERMINISTIC
GUIDANCE TOO SUGGESTS A BIT MORE UNCERTAINTY IN PROGRESSION/TRACK,
MOST NOTABLE IN THE GFS/GEFS WHILE THE EURO AND ITS ENSEMBLE APPEAR
MORE CONSISTENT WHEN COMPARING LAST COUPLE/FEW RUNS. SUFFICE IT TO
SAY, E/SE AREAS REMAIN MOST LIKELY TO SEE APPRECIABLE RAINFALL WHILE
W/NW AREAS REMAIN MORE UNCERTAIN.
REGARDLESS OF THURSDAY/FRIDAY PRECIPITATION CHANCES, COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE SOMETIME AROUND THE LATTER HALF OF FRIDAY DRY THE AREA BACK
OUT AND PUSH TEMPERATURES BACK TOWARDS SEASONAL NORMS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1127 PM CST SAT JAN 3 2026
CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE FIRST FEW HOURS OF THE
OVERNIGHT. CURRENTLY TRACKING STRATIFORM CLOUD COVER OVER IOWA
AND CLOUD COVER OVER NEBRASKA THAT IS MOVING TOWARD THE REGION.
THIS WILL EVENTUALLY BRING CEILINGS INTO THE AREA SUNDAY
AFTERNOON, BUT BASES ARE FORECAST TO BE VFR. WINDS WILL BE
BREEZY SUNDAY AFTERNOON SLIGHTLY VEERING THROUGH THE DAY. FOG IS
POSSIBLE AT STJ IN THE RIVER VALLEY.
EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
DISCUSSION...CURTIS
AVIATION...KRULL
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