832
FXUS63 KEAX 050932
AFDEAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
332 AM CST MON JAN 5 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* WELL ABOVE NORMAL, TEMPERATURES THROUGH MID-WEEK
- HIGHS INTO THE 50S TO MID 60S
- NORMAL HIGHS ARE MID-UPPER 30S
* NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION (RAIN) ARRIVES LATTER PORTION OF
NEXT WEEK.
- 30-60% CHANCES BY THURSDAY
- GREATEST CHANCES OVER E/SE AREAS
* ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES FRIDAY, INCLUDING SOME WINTRY
PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE
- 25-45% CHANCES FRIDAY
- GREATEST SNOW POTENTIAL NW, BUT FAR FROM GUARANTEED
* TEMPERATURES COOLING BACK TOWARD SEASONAL NORMS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 331 AM CST MON JAN 5 2026
QUIET AND MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS PREVAILED OVERNIGHT AND EARLY THIS
MORNING, WITH ONLY A FEW BITS OF CIRRUS STREAMING THROUGH THE
REGION. SOUTHERLY WINDS TOO CONTINUED TO ADVECT IN A WARMER AND MORE
MOIST AIRMASS, BUT FORTUNATELY LARGELY REMAINED STRONG ENOUGH TO
AVOID ANY SUBSTANTIAL FOG DEVELOPMENT. WITH THAT SAID, SURFACE PG
WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY YET EARLY THIS MORNING AND MAY ALLOW FOR
SOME POCKETS OF FOG TO DEVELOP BEFORE DIURNAL HEATING IS ABLE TO
RAMP UP. HI-RES GUIDANCE HAS HINTED AT LOW LEVEL STRATUS AND FOG
SINCE LAST NIGHT AND CURRENT GOES NIGHTTIME MICROPHYSICS PRODUCT IS
DEPICTING SOME OF THIS EARLY POTENTIAL. SEEN PRIMARILY AS BUDDING
LOW LEVEL STRATUS OVER SE KS AND BEGINNING TO BLEED INTO WEST-
CENTRAL MISSOURI. ASOS/AWOS OBSERVATIONS DEPICT MAINLY ~600-700 FT
STRATUS DECK WHILE VISIBILITIES WIDELY REMAIN >4SM. MODEL POINT
SOUNDINGS SHOW MARGINALLY SUPPORTIVE TO UNSUPPORTIVE PROFILES FOR
STRATUS TO FALL TO THE GROUND. SO WITH REGARDS TO FOG, SUSPECT SOME
POCKETS IN PRONE AREAS, BUT FALLING SHORT OF AREAS OR WIDESPREAD
DENSE. MORE NOTABLE MAY BE THE IMPACTS TO AVIATION WITH THE DECK
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO EXPAND NORTHWARD THIS MORNING BEFORE LIKELY
MIXING OUT WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS AND DIURNAL HEATING.
FORTUNATELY THE MOISTURE DEPTH APPEARS ON THE MORE SHALLOW END.
ASIDE FROM ABOVE MENTIONED, TODAY WILL BE HIGHLIGHTED BY LARGELY
QUIET CONDITIONS AS HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS WILL ALSO STREAM THROUGH THE
AREA. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL REMAIN UP, BUT SHORT OF THE GUSTS FROM
YESTERDAY. SOUTHERN AREAS OF THE CWA MAY SEE GUSTS INTO THE MID 20S
MPH, EASING AS YOU WORK NORTHWARD. THIS WILL BE IN RESPONSE TO
ANOTHER BUILDING SURFACE LOW OVER THE WEST-CENTRAL PLAINS THAT WILL
BEGIN TO MOVE OUT INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS TODAY. HIGHS WILL CONTINUE
THE WARMING TREND, JUMPING UPWARDS OF 5 TO 10 DEGREES OVER
YESTERDAY, INTO THE 50S TO MID 60S IN MOST CASES.
THROUGH THE MIDDLE PORTIONS OF THE WEEK, MID-UPPER LEVEL FLOW
PATTERN REMAINS SLATED TO BECOME MORE ZONAL IN NATURE THROUGH THE
CENTRAL CONUS. DEVOID OF ANY NOTABLE SHORTWAVES, THIS LARGELY MEANS
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND TEMPERATURES STABILIZING WITH HIGHS IN THE
50S TO MID 60S THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY, IF NOT THURSDAY AS WELL.
WORKING TOWARD THE LATTER PORTIONS OF THE WEEK, SYNOPTIC GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO TRY AND GET A CONSISTENT HANDLE ON THE PAIR OF WAVES
COMING OUT OF THE MOUNTAIN WEST. THE GENERAL PROGRESSION REMAINS
UNCHANGED WITH THE LEADING CUTOFF LOW EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY FILL AND
MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO, FOLLOWED BY A NORTHERN STREAM
WAVE DIVING THROUGH THE PNW AND SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. FROM THERE... DETAILS REMAIN MIXED. THE 12Z/18Z
GFS OPERATIONAL RUNS FROM SUNDAY (JAN 4) LIKELY CAUGHT A FEW PEOPLE
BY SURPRISE WITH A ROBUST BAND OF HEAVY SNOW. LOOKING AT ITS
ENSEMBLE (GEFS) AND ITS EUROPEAN COUNTERPART, THE SNOW POTENTIAL
(ESPECIALLY OF THAT MAGNITUDE) GET SIGNIFICANTLY TAMPED DOWN. THE
LATEST GFS OPERATIONAL RUNS HAVE BACKED OFF THE SNOW, WITH SIMILAR
SHOWN IN GEFS AND THE EURO AND ITS ENSEMBLE. BUT, TO BE SURE, THERE
IS SOME SNOWFALL POTENTIAL OVER NW MISSOURI AND NE KANSAS DEPENDING
ON HOW THE AFOREMENTIONED WAVES PROGRESS AND INTERACT WITH ONE
ANOTHER. TAKING A HALF STEP BACK, THE LEADING SOUTHERN WAVE WILL
ADVECT IN ADDITIONAL GULF MOISTURE THURSDAY AS IT DEVELOPS AND
PUSHES A SURFACE LOW OUT INTO THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS
PASSAGE REMAINS FAIRLY CONSISTENT AMONG GUIDANCE, WHICH CONTINUES TO
PLACE GREATEST RAIN CHANCES AND AMOUNTS TOWARD THE SE HALF OF
MISSOURI. THIS WOULD BE ALL RAIN. THE TRAILING NORTHERN STREAM WAVE
PROGRESSION/DEVELOPMENT WILL DETERMINE IF ANY SNOW IS IN THE CARDS.
NOT WANTING TO BELABOR IT ANYMORE, SUFFICE IT TO SAY CONFIDENCE IS
LIMITED IN SNOWFALL WITH <25% OF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SHOWING ANY
SNOWFALL OVER NW MISSOURI, AND FAR FEWER SHOWING ANYTHING
SIGNIFICANT. THIS BEING THE 06Z RUNS. A MORE NORTHERLY PASSAGE WOULD
LESSEN SNOW CHANCES FURTHER, WHILE A MORE SOUTHERLY (OR STRONGER
SURFACE LOW) PASSAGE WOULD INCREASE CHANCES.
INTO THE WEEKEND, DETERMINISTICS NOW DEPICT ANOTHER NORTHERN STREAM
OPEN WAVE OR CUTOFF LOW DIVING DOWN OUT OF THE CANADIAN PLAINS.
WHILE LIFT WOULD BE DEEP/SUPPORTIVE OF PRECIPITATION, MUCH DRIER AIR
WILL BE IN PLACE AND DIFFICULT TO SQUEEZE OUT SIGNIFICANT QPF.
DEPICTED SATURDAY OVERNIGHT PASSAGE WOULD YIELD ALL SNOW P-TYPE AS
TEMPERATURES REGRESS TOWARD SEASONAL NORMS BY THIS POINT. DRIER
CONDITIONS THEN LOOK TO SETTLE BACK IN.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1051 PM CST SUN JAN 4 2026
A FEW HIGH PASSING CLOUDS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. MOISTURE TRANSPORT
MAY BRING SOME PATCHY FOG, RESULTING IN VISIBILITY BELOW 6
MILES FOR AN HOUR OR TWO THIS MORNING. WINDS WILL BE SOUTHERLY
THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD.
EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
DISCUSSION...CURTIS
AVIATION...KRULL
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page