854
FXUS63 KEAX 051948
AFDEAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
148 PM CST MON JAN 5 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* FOG RETURNS TO NORTHERN MISSOURI TONIGHT.
* NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION (RAIN) ARRIVES STARTING THURSDAY
MORNING WITH HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS MORE CENTRAL PORTIONS
OF MISSOURI THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.
* ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY,
INCLUDING SOME WINTRY PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE
- 25-45% CHANCES
- GREATEST SNOW POTENTIAL NW, BUT FAR FROM GUARANTEED
* TEMPERATURES COOLING BACK TOWARD SEASONAL NORMS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 148 PM CST MON JAN 5 2026
WE'RE SEEING A BANK OF LOW CLOUDS ACROSS NORTHERN MISSOURI THIS
AFTERNOON, LINGERING FROM THE FOG/LOW STRATUS THIS MORNING. THIS
SHOULD RETREAT NORTHWARD BUT WON'T CLEAR OUT BEFORE SUN SETS
THIS EVENING, ALLOWING FOR IT TO EXPAND AGAIN. POTENTIAL FOR
FOG AND LOW VISIBILITY AGAIN ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN MISSOURI.
LOOKING OUT TO OUR NORTHWEST, WE SEE A SURFACE LOW HAS DEVELOPED
OVER THE DAKOTAS WITH THE AREA OF LOWER PRESSURE SPANNING ALONG
THE LEE-SIDE OF THE ROCKIES FROM CANADA ALL THE WAY DOWN TO
NORTHERN TEXAS. THIS IS ONLY AMPLIFYING WARM-AIR ADVECTION TODAY
WHICH WILL WARM AREAS NOT CURRENTLY UNDER CLOUD COVER INTO THE
LOW-TO-MID 60S, WHILE AREAS THAT REMAIN CLOUDY WILL LIKELY ONLY
WARM INTO THE LOW-TO-MID 50S.
LOOKING AT THE UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN, WE SEE A LEADING SHORTWAVE
OUT AHEAD OF THE LARGER-WAVE TROUGH JUST OFF THE COAST OF THE
WESTERN CONUS. THIS SHORTWAVE MOVING OVER THE ROCKIES HAS LED TO
THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE AFOREMENTIONED BROAD AREA OF LOWER
PRESSURE. THIS AREA WILL REMAIN FAIRLY BROAD AND WEAK, NOT
ADVECTING IN ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR ANY SORT OF PRECIP CHANCES WITH
IT, BUT IT WILL BRING A WEAK FRONT THROUGH TONIGHT SHIFTING
WINDS TO WESTERLY ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS AND WESTERN MISSOURI.
MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW DECENT POTENTIAL FOR FOG
REDEVELOPMENT ACROSS NORTHERN MISSOURI AGAIN TONIGHT, THOUGH THE
SHIFT TO WESTERLY FLOW COULD BRING IN DRIER AIR CLEARING US BACK
OUT. FOR NOW, LEFT THE FOG POTENTIAL IN THE FORECAST AS THE
WESTERLY WINDS WILL STILL BE PRETTY LIGHT, LIKELY NOT ENOUGH TO
SCOUR OUT ALL THE MOISTURE BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE LOCKS IT IN
PLACE BELOW THE NOCTURNAL INVERSION.
BY TUESDAY WE WILL HAVE TRANSITIONED INTO A ZONAL FLOW UPPER-
LEVEL PATTERN AHEAD OF THE MORE DYNAMIC TROUGH THAT WILL ARRIVE
LATER THIS WEEK. AS THAT SYSTEM SPINS OFF THE COAST OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA, WESTERLY FLOW KEEPS DRY AIR IN PLACE AND
TEMPERATURES FAIRLY STEADY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THE UPPER-
LEVEL TROUGH STARTS ITS APPROACH, PUSHING INTO THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY, AMPLIFYING MOISTURE ADVECTION BACK INTO
THE REGION WITH A RESULTANT INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DESPITE THE INCREASING CLOUDS, STRONGER
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALSO BE ADVECTING IN WARMING TEMPERATURES
LEADING TO WEDNESDAY LIKELY BEING THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN
MISSOURI AND NORTHEAST KANSAS.
THE INTERESTING STUFF STARTS AS THE FIRST SHORTWAVE EJECTS OUT
OF THE TROUGH INTO THE PLAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
RAIN CHANCES WILL RAMP UP QUICKLY THURSDAY MORNING AS THE
SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS AND STARTS TO DEEPEN OVER NORTHERN OKLAHOMA
AND SOUTHERN KANSAS. MODELS HAVE TRENDED MORE WEST WITH THE
HEAVIER BAND OF RAIN ON THURSDAY, BRINGING POTENTIAL FOR 1+
INCHES OF RAIN UP TO 50-60% ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL MISSOURI ALL
THE WAY WEST TO AROUND A LINE FROM CLINTON TO CARROLLTON.
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS HAVE INCREASED, BUT CAPE CONTINUES TO
LOOK SKINNY WITH LESS THAN 200 J/KG, SO NOT ANTICIPATING
ANYTHING SEVERE FROM THESE STORMS OTHER THAN POTENTIALLY LOCALLY
HEAVIER RAINFALL. WE HAVE SEEN THE "SLIGHT" RISK AREA FROM
WPC'S EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OUTLOOK EXPAND WESTWARD TO NOW INCLUDE
THESE PORTIONS OF CENTRAL MISSOURI REFLECTING THIS CHANGE.
WHILE WE SEE POTENTIALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ON THURSDAY, ANOTHER
SURFACE LOW WILL BE SPINNING UP OVER THE TEXAS/OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLES, BRINGING POTENTIALLY EVEN MORE IMPACTFUL WEATHER ON
FRIDAY IF IT TRACKS FAR ENOUGH SOUTH. RIGHT NOW THERE IS MUCH
UNCERTAINTY IN EXACTLY WHERE THIS SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS, WHICH
MAKES THE TRACK EXPONENTIALLY MORE UNCERTAIN AS IT DEEPENS TO
THE NORTHEAST, TRACKING AS FAR SOUTH AS SOUTHERN MISSOURI AND AS
FAR NORTH AS NORTHWEST MISSOURI. WE'LL BE MONITORING THE TRACK
OF THIS SYSTEM CLOSELY AS WE EXPECT COLDER AIR TO BE PULLED
SOUTH ON THE BACK-SIDE OF THIS SYSTEM BRINGING A CHANGEOVER TO
SNOW ALONG A BAND OF HEAVIER PRECIP DEVELOPING TO THE NORTHWEST
OF THE SURFACE LOW-PRESSURE CENTER. RIGHT NOW, THE GREATER
NUMBER OF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS KEEPS THIS HEAVIER BAND OF SNOW NORTH
INTO NEBRASKA AND IOWA, BUT THERE IS SOME CHANCE (<25% AT THIS
TIME) THAT THIS BAND SETS UP ACROSS NORTHWEST MISSOURI. THE
FARTHER SOUTH THIS BAND SETS UP, THE GREATER AMOUNT OF WARM
SURFACE AIR IT'S GOING TO HAVE TO OVERCOME, SO I DON'T EXPECT A
LARGE AMOUNT OF SNOW AT THIS TIME IF WE DO SEE A MORE SOUTHERN
TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM, BUT THE NBM SHOWS A 20-25% CHANCE OF 1
INCH OF SNOW ESSENTIALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM ST
JOSEPH TO TRENTON, MO. ENOUGH TO POTENTIALLY LEAD TO SLICK ROADS
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY.
COOLER TEMPERATURES MOVE IN OVER THE WEEKEND, WITH HIGHS OVER
NORTHERN MISSOURI BACK DOWN INTO THE MID 30S, AND HIGHS SOUTH OF
I-70 WARMING INTO THE LOW-TO-MID 40S. SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. WE'LL
NEED TO WATCH CLOSELY AS THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ON THE
BACK-SIDE OF THIS LOW COULD POTENTIALLY BRING ADVISORY-LEVEL
NORTHERLY WINDS ON SATURDAY. A COUPLE MODELS EVEN BRING THE
POTENTIAL FOR A SECOND SHOT OF LIGHT SNOW SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WHICH WOULD BE ACROSS MUCH IF NOT ALL OF OUR AREA. THE
COOLER NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WEAKENS AS A CLIPPER SYSTEM BREAKS
DOWN THE AMPLIFIED RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS GOING INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK, HELPING TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND BACK INTO THE
MID-40S TO LOW 50S ON MONDAY.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1052 AM CST MON JAN 5 2026
LOW CLOUDS THIS MORNING WILL BE SLOW TO CLEAR, WITH IMPROVEMENT
TO VFR LIKELY BY 21Z AT ALL SITES EXCEPT KSTJ WHICH WON'T
IMPROVE TO VFR UNTIL 23Z. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTH THROUGH
THE DAY TODAY. THIS EVENING AROUND 03Z WINDS WILL SHIFT TO
WESTERLY AT THE TERMINALS. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO REMAIN VFR AT
ALL TERMINALS APART FROM KSTJ AS FOG IS EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP
ACROSS NORTHERN MISSOURI IMPACTING KSTJ AGAIN STARTING BETWEEN
03-05Z.
EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
DISCUSSION...MCCOY
AVIATION...MCCOY
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