238
FXUS63 KEAX 061124
AFDEAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
524 AM CST TUE JAN 6 2026
..12Z AVIATION UPDATE
KEY MESSAGES
* STRATUS AND FOG LINGERS OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHERN MISSOURI THIS
MORNING
- MAINLY WEST AND NORTH OF MISSOURI RIVER
* ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY
* INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION (RAIN) CHANCES
ARRIVING THURSDAY
- 50% TO NEAR 100% FROM NW MISSOURI TO CENTRAL MISSOURI
- HEAVY RAIN, >1.5", POSSIBLE
* ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY,
INCLUDING SOME WINTRY PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE
- 20-45% CHANCES
- GREATEST SNOW POTENTIAL NW
* TEMPERATURES COOLING TOWARD SEASONAL NORMAL NORMS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 404 AM CST TUE JAN 6 2026
STRATUS AND FOG QUICKLY EXPANDED YESTERDAY EVENING AND OVERNIGHT,
DROPPING FROM NORTHERN MISSOURI AND TOWARD THE MISSOURI RIVER. MUCH
OF THE EXPANSION HIT A RELATIVE WALL NEAR THE MISSOURI RIVER AS THAT
TOO WAS ROUGHLY WHERE A STRONG DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARY SET UP
DURING THE DAY YESTERDAY, MAKING THE GENERAL AIR MASS SOUTH OF THE
MISSOURI RIVER LESS CONDUCIVE FOR RAPID (OR MUCH OF ANY) FOG
DEVELOPMENT. DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, WHILE FLOW WAS RELATIVELY
LIGHT, IT WAS ENOUGH TO ADVECT IN DRIER AIR FROM THE WEST, ERODING
SOME OF THE RAPID EXPANSION. THIS EROSION HAS BEEN MOST PRONOUNCED
NEAR/ALONG THE KANSAS-MISSOURI BORDER AREA IN AND NORTH OF THE KC
METRO AREA. MUCH OF THIS ACTIVITY HAS BEEN NOTED WELL/CLEARLY VIA
VARIOUS GOES PRODUCTS, INCLUDING NIGHTTIME MICROPHYSICS. THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT/EARLY (PRE-DAWN) MORNING, EXPECTATION IS
FOR CONTINUED GRADUAL EROSION ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE CURRENT
FOG AREA, SOME ADDITIONAL EXPANSION ON THE EASTERN EDGE, AND LIMITED
MOVEMENT IF ANY ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE. IMPROVEMENT ALONG EDGES WILL
INCREASE POST-DAWN AS DIURNAL MIXING AND INCREASING W/NW SURFACE
FLOW IS ABLE TO TO EAT AWAY AND PUSH FOG AND STRATUS OUT. FOR THE
TIME BEING, MUCH OF THE EXISTING DENSE FOG ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE THROUGH MID-MORNING, WITH COUNTIES TRIMMED (OR ADDED) AS
NECESSARY. FOR THE REMAINDER OF TODAY, EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO END UP
FAIRLY SIMILAR AS YESTERDAY. WHILE THERE IS LIKELY TO BE MORE
SUNSHINE FOR MOST (SORRY NE AREAS...), SOME CAA ON THE HEELS OF THE
W/NW FLOW WILL TEMPER PEAK TEMPERATURE POTENTIAL. BUT, ANOTHER DAY
IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 60S IS UNLIKELY TO BE GREETED WITH TOO MANY
COMPLAINTS.
WEDNESDAY LIKELY TO BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK FOR MOST WITH
SOME WAA MOVING BACK THROUGH THE LOWER LEVELS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
EXPECTED. HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 50S (NE) TO THE MID 60S (S/SW)
APPEAR ON TRACK.
THE LATTER PORTION OF THE WEEK INTO EARLY WEEKEND REMAINS THE MOST
NOTABLE PART OF THE FORECAST. IN SOME RESPECTS, CONFIDENCE HAS
INCREASED WHILE IN OTHER RESPECTS CONFIDENCE REMAINS RELATIVELY LOW.
TO BEGIN WITH, THE GENERAL PROGRESSION REMAINS ON TRACK WITH THE
LEADING SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO WEDNESDAY
BEFORE TURNING MORE NORTHEASTWARD WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS IT AND AN
ACCOMPANYING SURFACE LOW MOVE OUT INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE (00Z RUNS) SHOW MARKED IMPROVEMENT IN
CONSISTENCY AMONG ONE ANOTHER, INCLUDING THEIR ENSEMBLES. THIS TOO
INCLUDES CONTINUED NUDGE NW IN THE SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE LOW TRACKS.
NBM LOADED ANYWHERE FROM 50% TO NEAR 100% POPS ACROSS THE CWA FROM
NW TO SE, AND HAVE SEEN NO NEED FOR ANY MAJOR ADJUSTMENTS OR
DEVIATIONS TO IT. PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BE ALL RAIN WITH THIS
PASSAGE, AND SHOULD INCLUDE WIDESPREAD MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL TO THE
AREA. GFS AND EURO ENSEMBLES DEPICT >60% CHANCES FOR AT LEAST 0.50"
OF QPF THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. WHILE PROBABILITIES RAPIDLY DROP OFF
AT >1" QPF, INDIVIDUAL ENSEMBLE MEMBERS DO SHOW A SMATTERING OF NEAR
2" AMOUNTS. GIVEN THE SEASONALLY WARM CONDITIONS AND SOME WEAK CAPE
DEPICTIONS, THIS DOES NOT SEEM TOO FAR FETCHED. WHILE 2" AMOUNTS IN
JANUARY WOULD USUALLY RAISE THE CAUTION FLAG FOR FLOODING, GIVEN
RECENT DRY CONDITIONS, NON-FROZEN GROUND, PROGRESSIVE OVERALL
NATURE, THE GENERAL RISK FOR FLOODING REMAINS VERY LOW. AGAIN,
SHOULD BE BENEFICIAL RAINFALL OVERALL.
SOME NOTABLE CHANGES TO THE DEPICTIONS OF THE TRAILING SECOND
SHORTWAVE TROUGH, AS THE CURRENT 00Z RUNS ARE TENDING TO SHOW A
DEEPER AND SLOWER PROGRESSION ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS AND
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. THIS LARGELY RESULTS IN A "BREAK" BETWEEN
PRECIPITATION CHANCES, IN WHICH DAYTIME INTO EVENING FRIDAY MAY
REMAIN DRY WITH INCREASING PRECIPITATION CHANCES FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY SATURDAY. THIS IS AGAIN PRETTY WELL AGREED UPON AMONG THE
AVAILABLE 00Z SYNOPTIC GUIDANCE. WHERE THERE REMAINS AT LEAST A
MODERATE AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY IS HOW THIS WAVE AND ANY SURFACE
REFLECTION MOVES OUT INTO THE PLAINS, AND COMPLICATING THINGS A BIT
FURTHER IS POTENTIAL (OR LIKELY) INTERACTION WITH STRONGER
SHORTWAVE/PV ANOMALY DROPPING SOUTHWARD OUT OF THE CANADIAN PLAINS.
OVERALL THE DEPICTIONS SUGGEST LESS SUBSTANTIAL SURFACE LOW
DEVELOPMENT AS THE PARENT WAVE TURNS NE. THIS IS NOT TO SAY IT WILL
BE DRY, BUT THAT CONFIDENCE DETAILS ARE FAR FROM HASHED OUT. A
TRANSITION AREA FROM SNOW TO RAIN REMAINS LIKELY OVER THE AREA, WITH
ACCUMULATING SNOW POTENTIAL BEST NEAR I-35 AND TO THE N AND W. THE
EURO CONTINUES TO PAINT FAIRLY LOW PROBABILITIES (UP TO AROUND 30%)
OF 1" OF SNOW OR GREATER OVER NW MISSOURI, WHILE THE GFS TOO
CONTINUES TO BE A BIT MORE ROBUST (READ: COLDER) WITH PROBABILITIES
UP TO AROUND 50%. PROBABILITIES FALL OFF RAPIDLY AT >3" WITH UP TO
AROUND 10% AND 20% DEPICTED RESPECTIVELY, BUT THERE ARE A COUPLE OF
ROBUST MEMBERS IN EACH. AND KEEP IN MIND SOME OF THE BANDING
LIMITATIONS OF THE COARSER SYNOPTIC MODELS VS WHEN WE START TO ENTER
MORE OF THE HI-RES MODEL WINDOWS.
WEEKEND CONTINUES TO COOL AND DRIES OUT WHILE THE MID-UPPER LEVEL
FLOW PATTERN TURNS SHARPLY NW/N. TEMPERATURES DROP BACK TOWARDS
SEASONAL NORMS THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S/MID 40S.
MODEST WARMING RETURNS EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH RETURN OF SOUTHERLY
SURFACE FLOW AND MID-UPPER LEVEL HEIGHT RISES.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 522 AM CST TUE JAN 6 2026
OVERNIGHT FOG AND LOW STRATUS AFFECT KSTJ/KMCI AND TO A LESSER
DEGREE KMKC, BUT BY THIS ISSUANCE ALL SITES HAVE AT LEAST SOME
DEGREE OF IMPROVEMENT. AS A RESULT, KMCI VFR, KMKC MVFR, AND
KSTJ IFR OUT THE GATE. KMKC/KSTJ SHOULD SEE FAIRLY QUICK/RAPID
IMPROVEMENT THIS MORNING AS THEY GENERALLY RESIDE ON THE WESTERN
EDGE OF FOG AND STRATUS HAS LARGELY MIGRATED EASTWARD.
OTHERWISE, CLEAR SKIES AND NW WINDS TO AROUND 10KTS DAYTIME
BEFORE EASING BACK OUT OF THE SW TONIGHT.
EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MO...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR MOZ001>008-
011>017-020>025-029>033.
KS...NONE.
DISCUSSION...CURTIS
AVIATION...CURTIS
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