426
FXUS63 KEAX 221938
AFDEAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
138 PM CST THU JAN 22 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ARCTIC AIR ARRIVES TONIGHT WITH MOST LOCATIONS SEEING CALENDAR
DAY HIGHS AT MIDNIGHT.
- ANOTHER SLIGHT SHIFT NORTHWARD IN WEEKEND SYSTEM, BUT LITTLE
OVERALL CHANGE IN SNOWFALL AMOUNTS.
- ARCTIC AIR LINGER FOR THE WEEKEND BEFORE WARMING SLIGHTLY INTO
THE NEW WEEK, ALBEIT STILL BELOW NORMAL.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 138 PM CST THU JAN 22 2026
EXPANSIVE HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHED FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO
THE TENNESSEE VALLEY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. LOW PRESSURE WAS
LOCATED JUST SOUTH OF JAMES BAY WITH A COLD FRONT TRAILING INTO
EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR, THE UP OF MICHIGAN, NORTHERN WISCONSIN,
AND SOUTHERN MINNESOTA. A VERY COLD ARCTIC AIR MASS WAS LOCATED
BEHIND THIS FRONT AND WILL BE ARRIVING INTO THE LOWER MISSOURI
VALLEY TONIGHT. BEFORE THEN, FAIR SKIES WILL PREVAIL THIS
AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S AND 40S ALONG WITH SOUTHERLY
WINDS. WINDS THEN VEER NORTHERLY TONIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT WITH MUCH COLDER AIR POURING INTO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES
AT MIDNIGHT WILL BE IN THE 20S AND 30S BEFORE FALLING THROUGH
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AND THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY FRIDAY WITH
A FEW HOURS OF TEMPERATURES WARMING SLIGHTLY OR HOLDING STEADY
BEFORE CONTINUING TO FALL AFTER SUNSET. THIS WILL RESULT IN
CALENDAR DAY HIGH TEMPERATURES OCCURRING SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE TEENS AND SINGLE
DIGITS ABOVE ZERO. BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BRING WIND CHILLS
IN THE TEENS AND 20S BELOW ZERO ALONG AND NORTH OF THE MISSOURI
RIVER WITH SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO TO THE SOUTH.
COLD HEADLINES ARE IN EFFECT FOR THIS AND WILL PERSIST THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.
ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE WINTER STORM THAT WILL AFFECT
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE DEEP SOUTH TO THE NORTHEAST
THIS WEEKEND. A DEEP TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST FRIDAY NIGHT AND BEGIN SENDING MULTIPLE LOBES OF VORTICITY
INTO THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS WILL LEAD TO SNOW
DEVELOPING IN THOSE AREAS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND SPREADING INTO
THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY FRIDAY EVENING. DRY AIR FROM THE HIGH
PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH WILL LIKELY DELAY THE ONSET OF SNOWFALL
ACROSS THE REGION UNTIL LATER FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING. MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT FOR AT LEAST THE
START OF THIS EVENT, BUT DIFFERENCES INCREASE OVER THE LATTER
PART. THE NAM AND GFS ARE ADVERTISING TWO DISTINCT PERIODS OF
SNOWFALL WHILE THE ECMWF KEEPS SNOW ONGOING THROUGH THE EVENT.
IF A BREAK WERE TO OCCUR, IT WOULD LIKELY BE DURING THE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY EVENING TIMEFRAME. SNOWFALL THEN ENDS
THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST AND LIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST. HOWEVER, THE NAM IS
SUGGESTING THAT THE SNOWFALL LINGERS ACROSS THE AREA INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH A DEFORMATION BAND SETTING UP. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS
HAVE INCREASED FROM OUR PREVIOUS PACKAGE WITH 6-9" EXPECTED
FROM THE KC METRO AREA TO ST. JOSEPH EASTWARD WITH ISOLATED
HIGHER AMOUNTS TO 7 TO 10 INCHES IN OUR FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES.
SNOWFALL RATIOS WILL LIKELY BE ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY WITH THIS
SYSTEM GIVEN THE ARCTIC AIRMASS IN PLACE RESULTING IN VALUES OF
15:1 TO 18:1. SNOWFALL PROBABILITIES HAVE INCREASED WITH THE 12Z
NBM RESULTING IN THE PROBABILITY OF AT LEAST 6" AT 70 TO 80%
FOR AREAS ALONG THE US36 CORRIDOR SOUTHWARD AND THEN RAPIDLY
FALLING OFF TO THE NORTH OF US36. GIVEN THE INCREASE IN THESE
PROBABILITIES AND WITH THE ONSET OF SNOW ABOUT 36 HOURS OUT,
WILL BE UPGRADING OUR WATCH TO A WARNING WITH THIS FORECAST
PACKAGE.
THE ARCTIC AIR WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AND
HAVE LOWERED TEMPERATURES A BIT GIVEN THE SNOWPACK THAT WILL BE
FORMING. SATURDAY WILL BE THE COLDEST WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN
THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO BEFORE WARMING INTO THE TEENS FOR
SUNDAY. WIND CHILLS WILL BE IN THE TEENS AND 20S BELOW ZERO
DURING THE OVERNIGHTS, SO COLD WEATHER HEADLINES MAY NEED TO BE
EXPANDED. A WARMING TREND IS THEN EXPECTED HEADING INTO THE NEW
WEEK WITH HIGHS MONDAY IN THE 20S AND THEN 30S FOR TUESDAY. DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL DURING THIS PERIOD.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1124 AM CST THU JAN 22 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. BROKEN DECK
CURRENTLY IN PLACE WILL DEPART THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE INCREASING
AGAIN OVERNIGHT AND LOWERING AROUND DAYBREAK FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT
WILL PASS THROUGH THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT WITH WINDS VEERING
NORTHERLY AS VERY COLD ARCTIC AIR MOVES IN. WINDS WILL LIKELY BECOME
BREEZY AROUND SUNRISE WITH GUSTS TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS POSSIBLE.
EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MO...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON CST
SATURDAY FOR MOZ001-011>014-020>025-031>033.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 PM FRIDAY TO 6 PM CST SUNDAY FOR
MOZ020>023-028>032-037>040-043>046-053-054.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT TO NOON CST
SATURDAY FOR MOZ028>030-037>040-043>046-053-054.
EXTREME COLD WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON CST FRIDAY
FOR MOZ002>008-015>017.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON FRIDAY TO NOON CST SATURDAY
FOR MOZ002>008-015>017.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM FRIDAY TO 6 PM CST SUNDAY
FOR MOZ004-011>017-024-025-033.
KS...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON CST
SATURDAY FOR KSZ025-102.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 PM FRIDAY TO 6 PM CST SUNDAY FOR
KSZ025-057-060-102>105.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT TO NOON CST
SATURDAY FOR KSZ057-060-103>105.
DISCUSSION...BJH
AVIATION...BJH
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