577
FXUS63 KEAX 240506
AFDEAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1106 PM CST FRI JAN 23 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WINTER STORM BEGINS LATE THIS EVENING INTO EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING AND LASTS INTO SUNDAY MORNING. LATEST FORECAST TRENDS
CONTINUE TO PUSH THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL TO THE SOUTH WITH 2 TO
5 INCHES NORTH OF I-70 AND 4 TO 8 INCHES TO THE SOUTH.
- DANGEROUS COLD PERSISTS DURING THE WINTER STORM AS WELL WITH
DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS IN THE TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS BELOW
ZERO THROUGH MONDAY
- BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH A GENERALLY DRY PATTERN
EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 302 PM CST FRI JAN 23 2026
HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHED FROM THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST THIS AFTERNOON. THIS ARCTIC
AIRMASS WAS LEADING TO TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TEENS AND SINGLE
DIGITS ABOVE ZERO ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN MISSOURI AND
NORTHEASTERN KANSAS WITH TEMPERATURES BELOW ZERO IN IOWA. WINDS
WERE SLOWLY DIMINISHING ACROSS THE REGION, BUT WERE STILL
GUSTING TO 15 TO 20 MPH IN SPOTS LEADING TO WIND CHILLS IN THE
TEENS BELOW ZERO. HEADING INTO TONIGHT, SNOW WILL SPREAD ACROSS
THE REGION AFTER 9-10PM FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AS THE FIRST
WAVE OF THE SYSTEM ARRIVES. THIS IS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE
ARRIVAL OF A SHORTWAVE FLUNG OFF AN UPPER LOW LOCATED OFF THE
SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA COAST. SNOW WILL BE SLOW TO START WITH
VERY DRY AIR NEAR THE SURFACE TO CONTEND WITH. THE COLUMN WILL
EVENTUALLY SATURATE AND SNOW WILL REACH THE SURFACE LATE THIS
EVENING INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF SATURDAY. THERE MAY BE A
LULL IN THE SNOWFALL THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY AS MODELS WERE
PREVIOUSLY ADVERTISING THIS, BUT THE 23.12 SUITE OF MODELS SHOW
MORE CONTINUOUS LIGHT SNOW THROUGH THE DAY. THIS IS HELPED BY
FAVORABLE JET DYNAMICS ALOFT AS WE REMAIN IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION OF A 160-190 KNOT JET OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS WILL BE
FURTHER ENHANCED WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF ANOTHER JET STREAK
OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING PLACING US IN THE LEFT EXIT REGION FOR EVEN MORE LIFT.
GIVEN THE VERY COLD AIR MASS IN PLACE, THIS SYSTEM WILL BE ALL
SNOW WITH NO CONCERNS ABOUT MIXED PRECIPITATION. ADDITIONALLY, A
VERY DEEP DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE WILL BE IN PLACE FROM THE
SURFACE TO ALMOST 500MB RESULTING IN EFFICIENT SNOW GROWTH AND
SNOW RATIOS AROUND 18:1 THROUGH THE EVENT. THIS WILL BE A DRIER
SNOW THAN NORMAL ACROSS THE REGION. LIGHT SNOWFALL WILL CONTINUE
FOR SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT BEFORE ENDING THROUGH THE DAY
SUNDAY.
MODELS HAVE TRENDED A BIT SOUTHWARD WITH THE LATEST RUNS
AND OUR FORECAST REFLECTS THAT TREND. SNOWFALL TOTALS OF AROUND
2 TO 5 INCHES ARE EXPECTED NORTH OF THE I-70 CORRIDOR WITH
TOTALS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES ALONG AND TO THE SOUTH WITH ISOLATED
HIGHER AMOUNTS ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES. FOR THE KC METRO
AREA SPECIFICALLY, TOTALS OF 3 TO 7 INCHES ARE EXPECTED WITH
LOWER AMOUNTS TO THE NORTH AND HIGHER AMOUNTS TO THE SOUTH. WITH
THE LOWERING OF SNOWFALL TOTALS IN THE NORTH, HAVE DOWNGRADED
THE NORTHERN ROW OF COUNTIES IN THE WINTER STORM WARNING TO AN
ADVISORY.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN VERY COLD THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO
MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO SATURDAY AND
TEENS ABOVE ZERO ON SUNDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE
SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
WITH WIND CHILLS IN THE TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO. A
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR TONIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING WITH ADDITIONAL COLD HEADLINES LIKELY NEEDED,
ESPECIALLY FOR SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING. WHILE WE HAVE
ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES COOLER FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS, THE FRESH
SNOWPACK AND CLEARING SKIES SUNDAY NIGHT MAY ALLOW LOWS TO TREND
EVEN COOLER PERHAPS PUTTING SOME RECORDS AT RISK.
WESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL THEN SET UP ACROSS THE
CENTRAL CONUS FOR NEXT WEEK WITH GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED. A WEAK SYSTEM MAY BRING A FEW FLURRIES IN THE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY TIME PERIOD, BUT MOST AREAS LOOK
TO REMAIN DRY. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE 20S AND LOWER
30S FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY BEFORE ANOTHER SHOT OF COOLER AIR
ARRIVES FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1107 PM CST FRI JAN 23 2026
VFR CONDS ARE EXPECT THRU 07Z WHEN LGT SNOW IS EXPECTED TO
BEGIN AT THE TAF SITES WITH VIS REDUCED TO 2-3SM WITH MVFR
CIGS. LGT SNOW WITH MVFR CIGS AND VIS REDUCED TO 1-3SM ARE
EXPECTED THRU 22Z...AFT WHICH IFR CIGS WITH LGT SNOW REDUCING
VIS TO 1-2SM ARE FCST. WINDS THRU THE TAF PD WILL BE OUT OF THE
NE BTN 7-12KTS.
EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MO...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST SATURDAY FOR MOZ001>008-
011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-043>046-053-054.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST SUNDAY FOR MOZ028>031-
037>040-043>046-053-054.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST SUNDAY FOR MOZ001>008-
011>017-020>025-032-033.
KS...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST SATURDAY FOR KSZ025-057-
060-102>105.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST SUNDAY FOR KSZ025-057-060-
103>105.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST SUNDAY FOR KSZ102.
DISCUSSION...BT
AVIATION...73
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