324
FXUS63 KEAX 241727
AFDEAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1127 AM CST SAT JAN 24 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* LIGHT SNOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY.
SNOWFALL RATES ARE EXPECTED TO MAXIMIZE THIS AFTERNOON, AND WANE
THIS EVENING INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
* WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 335 AM CST SAT JAN 24 2026
1045 MB ARCTIC HIGH HAS BUILT INTO CENTRAL MN EARLY THIS MORNING.
THIS HIGH IS EXPECTED TO SLIDE EAST TODAY TOWARDS THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES. INCREDIBLY DRY AIR ORIGINATING FROM THIS ARCTIC AIRMASS IS
ADVECTING INTO NORTHERN AND EASTERN MISSOURI, FIGHTING SATURATION
FROM ALOFT AS SHORTWAVE ORIGINATING FROM PARENT UPPER LOW NOW OFF THE
BAJA OF CALIFORNIA BUILD INTO EASTERN NM/WEST TEXAS. WE ARE
STARTING TO SEE THE DYNAMICS WIN OUT, AND AS SUCH, SNOW IS BEGINNING
TO BE OBSERVED ALONG AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 65 AS OF 08Z. EXPECT THE
SNOW TO GRADUALLY EXPAND EASTWARD THIS MORNING, BUT WILL BE A
GRADUAL PROCESS.
FOR POPS TODAY, FOLLOWED ISENTROPIC LIFT ON THE 295-300K SURFACES.
WEAK LIFT ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE INTO
THE DAY LIGHT HOURS, MAXIMIZING MID DAY BEFORE WEAKENING THIS
EVENING. THIS LIFT IS ENHANCED BY THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION TO A
JET STREAK CENTERED ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY, AND LATE IN THE DAY THE
LEFT EXIT REGION TO A SECONDARY JET STREAK DEVELOPING ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. WITH SHORTWAVE TRENDING A BIT SLOWER THAN EXPECTED
OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS, DYNAMICS NOW PEAK DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS
AND EXPECT THE BEST SNOW ACCUMULATIONS TO OCCUR THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. RECENT RUNS OF THE HRRR AND
03 & 06Z RUNS OF THE RAP SHOW A DEFORMATION BAND OF MORE INTENSE
SNOW DEVELOPING ACROSS EASTERN KS THIS AFTERNOON SPREADING INTO
NORTHWEST MISSOURI WHERE THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE (DGZ) DEPTH IS
MAXIMIZED FROM THE SURFACE TO NEARLY 550 MB. WITH THIS IDEALIZED
SCENARIO FOR SNOW PRODUCTION, THE POTENTIAL IS THERE TO SEE ENHANCED
SNOWFALL PRODUCTION. AREAS FURTHER TO THE SOUTH WARM SLIGHTLY ALOFT
THIS AFTERNOON, LIMITING THE DEPTH OF THE DGZ.
LIFT DECREASES ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING AS THE SHORTWAVE TO
THE SOUTH SHIFTS EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND ATMOSPHERIC
COLUMN DRIES OUT FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. THIS SHOULD BRING AN
END TO THE SNOW ACROSS THE REGION AS SECONDARY ARCTIC PUSH BUILDS
INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. A SECOND SHORTWAVE BUILDING INTO TEXAS
TONIGHT THREATENS TO BRING A SECOND SURGE OF PRECIPITATION TO THE
REGION, BUT MOISTURE RETURN BETWEEN THE TWO WAVES IS FOCUSED MUCH
FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS CENTRAL ARKANSAS INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND
SOUTH, SO AM NOT EXPECTING SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION/SNOW
ACCUMULATION TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
WITH THE MAIN FOCUS BEING THE SLOWER MOVING FIRST WAVE, HAVE REFINED
SNOW AMOUNTS A BIT ACROSS THE AREA. SNOW AMOUNTS NEAR THE IOWA
MISSOURI BORDER GENERALLY LOOK TO BE IN THE 1-3 RANGE, BUT COULD SEE
ENHANCEMENTS WITH THE DEFORMATION BAND DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON
HOURS TODAY. FARTHER SOUTH, AM EXPECTING CLOSER TO 4-5" IN THE
MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY/I-70 CORRIDOR, AND AMOUNTS CLOSER TO 6-7
INCHES.
SNOW IS EXPECTED TO COME TO AN END SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS THE REGION.
GIVEN THOSE EXPECTATIONS, CURRENT HEADLINES MAY RUN A BIT LONG, BUT
DON'T HAVE HIGH ENOUGH CONFIDENCE AT THIS POINT TO SHORTEN ENDING
TIMES.
FRIGID CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS ARCTIC
HIGH ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS DROPS SOUTH TOWARDS NORTHERN TEXAS
BY MONDAY MORNING. FLOW TURNS MORE WESTERLY MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS
HIGH SETTLES IN THE NORTHERN GULF LEADING TO A BRIEF WARM UP BEFORE
ANOTHER SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR COOLS US DOWN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW NORMAL AND MAINLY
BELOW FREEZING THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1127 AM CST SAT JAN 24 2026
MVFR CEILINGS WILL PREVAIL INTO TONIGHT WITH SNOW SHOWERS
CONTINUING. VISIBILITIES WILL DROP TO IFR AT TIMES WITH PERHAPS SOME
BRIEF PERIODS OF LIFR BEFORE SLOWING IMPROVING OVERNIGHT. SNOW WILL
END AFTER DAYBREAK SUNDAY MORNING WITH VFR CONDITIONS RETURNING BY
MID MORNING. WINDS WILL REMAIN NORTHERLY AT 10 KNOTS OR LESS.
EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MO...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR MOZ001>008-
011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-043>046-053-054.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST SUNDAY FOR MOZ028>031-
037>040-043>046-053-054.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST SUNDAY FOR MOZ001>008-
011>017-020>025-032-033.
KS...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR KSZ025-057-060-
102>105.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST SUNDAY FOR KSZ025-057-060-
103>105.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST SUNDAY FOR KSZ102.
DISCUSSION...BT
AVIATION...BT
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