556
FXUS63 KEAX 242329
AFDEAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
529 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WINTER STORM CONTINUES TO BRING SNOW INTO TONIGHT BEFORE
ENDING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST SUNDAY MORNING. ADDITIONAL
SNOWFALL OF 1-3 INCHES NORTH OF I-70 WITH 2-5 INCHES TO THE
SOUTH.
- ANOTHER COLD DAY IS EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY WITH DANGEROUS COLD
SUNDAY NIGHT AS LOWS DROP BELOW ZERO WITH WIND CHILLS IN THE
TEENS BELOW ZERO.
- TEMPERATURES WARM SLIGHTLY NEXT WEEK BUT REMAIN BELOW NORMAL.
ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD AIR ARRIVES LATE WEEK WITH MINIMAL
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 248 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2026
HIGH PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER THE GREAT LAKES EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON AND EXTENDED INTO THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. LOW
PRESSURE WAS ANALYZED OFF THE TEXAS GULF COAST WITH A TROUGH
EXTENDING NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHWESTERN MISSOURI. AN EXPANSIVE
AREA OF PRECIPITATION EXTENDED FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WITH SNOW ON THE NORTH END, SLEET AND
MIXED PRECIPITATION IN THE MIDDLE AND RAINFALL TO THE SOUTH. THE
NORTHERN EDGE OF THE SNOWFALL WAS ROUGHLY JUST TO THE SOUTH OF
THE IOWA/MISSOURI BORDER WITH SNOW OVER MUCH OF EASTERN KANSAS
AND NORTHERN MISSOURI. DRY AIR HAS CONTINUED TO BE AN ISSUE WITH
THIS SYSTEM, ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES ALONG WITH
SOME POCKETS ELSEWHERE. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS THUS FAR HAVE BEEN IN
THE 1 TO 3 INCH RANGE OVER MUCH OF THE KC METRO AREA WITH AROUND
AN INCH OR LESS IN THE FAR SOUTH AND EAST METRO. STILL SEEING
SOME HIGHER RADAR RETURNS UPSTREAM ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
KANSAS, SO EXPECTING SOME HIGHER SNOWFALL RATES TO MOVE IN LATER
THIS AFTERNOON.
UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS HAVE NOT BEEN AS FAVORABLE AS PREVIOUSLY
ADVERTISED WITH THE SOUTHERN JET STREAK BEING SLOW TO DEVELOP
AND NOW NOT ARRIVING UNTIL THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS DRIER AIR
INTRUDES FROM THE NORTHWEST AND STARTS TO SHUT OFF THE SNOW. WE
STILL HAVE THE ISENTROPIC LIFT IN PLACE ALONG WITH THE MAIN JET
STREAK OVER THE GREAT LAKES. ADDITIONALLY, MORE RECENT RUNS OF
THE HRRR HAVE BACKED OFF ON THE DEVELOPMENT OF A DEFORMATION
BAND OVER THE AREA. ALL THIS SAID, AT LEAST STEADY LIGHT
SNOWFALL WILL PERSIST INTO TONIGHT WITH SOME PERIODS OF HEAVIER
SNOWFALL POSSIBLE. ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF 1-2" ARE
EXPECTED FOR AREAS NORTH OF US 36 WITH 3-6" FOR AREAS SOUTH AND
EAST OF THE KC METRO AREA. AS FOR THE METRO AREA, ANOTHER 2-4"
IS EXPECTED BEFORE SNOW ENDS SUNDAY MORNING. NO CHANGES HAVE
BEEN MADE TO THE AERIAL EXTENTS OF THE WARNING AND ADVISORY, BUT
THE TIMING HAS CHANGED WITH BOTH ENDING AT NOON. IF THE DRIER
AIR IS QUICKER TO ARRIVE, FURTHER MODIFICATIONS MAY BE REQUIRED.
COLD AIR REMAINS OVERHEAD FOR SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE TEENS. AS
SKIES CLEAR FOR THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS, FAVORABLE
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE AS LOWS FALL
INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO. LIGHT NORTHWESTERLY WINDS
WILL THEN LEAD TO WIND CHILLS IN THE TEENS TO AROUND 20 BELOW
ZERO. A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR MOST OF
THE CWA, IF NOT ALL, BUT WILL LET THE WINTER HEADLINES CLEAR
FIRST BEFORE ISSUING.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE MIDDLE 20S TO MIDDLE 30S FOR
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY BEFORE ANOTHER SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR ARRIVES
TO END THE WEEK DROPPING HIGHS 10 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
INTO THE TEENS AND 20S. DRY CONDITIONS LOOK TO PREVAIL THROUGH
THE WEEK BEFORE LOW CHANCES FOR SNOWFALL RETURN LATE IN THE
PERIOD AS A COLD FRONT DROPS TO THE SOUTH.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 529 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2026
MVFR CIGS WITH LGT SNOW REDUCING VIS BTN 1-2SM IS EXPECTED THRU
14Z-15Z (11Z AT STJ) BEFORE CONDS BECOME VFR WITH BKN-OVC CIGS
AROUND 4-5KFT. WINDS AT THE BEGINNING OF THE TAF PD WILL BE OUT
OF THE NE AROUND 10KTS BUT WILL BACK TO THE NORTH BTN 5-10KTS
AFT 10Z-12Z.
EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MO...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON CST SUNDAY FOR MOZ028>031-
037>040-043>046-053-054.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST SUNDAY FOR MOZ001>008-
011>017-020>025-032-033.
KS...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON CST SUNDAY FOR KSZ025-057-060-
103>105.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST SUNDAY FOR KSZ102.
DISCUSSION...BT
AVIATION...73
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