622
FXUS63 KEAX 312101
AFDEAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
301 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- COLD TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S.
- CHANCE FOR SOME FLURRIES AND/OR LIGHT SNOW TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING. LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION EXPECTED.
- WARMER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY AFTERNOONS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 158 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2026
CURRENT H5 ANALYSIS OVERLAID WITH WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A
CLOSED MID LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN APPALACHIA WITH
RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS, LEADING TO ENHANCED MID LEVEL
NORTH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER OUR REGION IN BETWEEN THE TWO
FEATURES. AT THE SURFACE, A 1042 MB SURFACE HIGH IS CENTERED
OVER THE KANSAS/OKLAHOMA BORDER NORTH OF TULSA, RESULTING IN
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS, MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES (ALBEIT WITH
INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE WEST), AND TEMPERATURES IN THE
MID TEENS TO LOWER 20S AS OF 2 PM.
BY LATER TONIGHT INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH EMBEDDED WITHIN THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT DESCENDS OUT
OF THE NORTH CENTRAL PLAINS AND APPROACHES OUR CWA. THIS WILL
YIELD SOME MODEST ASCENT AND THETA E ADVECTION, WHICH COULD BE
JUST ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SOME FLURRIES OR EVEN SOME LIGHT SNOW
ACROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO THE OVERNIGHT AND MORNING
HOURS OF SUNDAY. GENERALLY SPEAKING, NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED
OUTSIDE OF PERHAPS A DUSTING TO HALF AND INCH (0.5") ACROSS
NORTHERN MISSOURI WHERE THE MOISTURE AND ASCENT WILL BE A BIT
MORE SUPPORTIVE FOR BETTER SNOW. BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON, THE
RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS NUDGES FURTHER EAST JUST ENOUGH TO
BRING IN SOME HIGHER H5 HEIGHTS AND 850 MB TEMPS, WHICH SHOULD
ALLOW FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS TO REACH THE UPPER 30S FOR EASTERN KS
AND WESTERN MO, WITH SUB FREEZING TEMPS HOLDING ON TOWARD
CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN MISSOURI. THE WARMING TREND CONTINUES
INTO MONDAY AS HIGHER MID LEVEL HEIGHTS BUILD IN FROM THE WEST
AS THE PATTERN BECOME MORE ZONAL. MONDAY HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO
REACH THE MID 40S FOR MOST LOCATIONS, WITH EVEN NE MISSOURI
REACHING THE MID TO UPPER 30S.
OVERNIGHT MONDAY INTO TUESDAY, ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS
PROGGED TO DESCEND OUT OF NORTHERN PLAINS AND INTO THE CENTRAL
CONUS. THIS WILL USHER IN COLDER AIR FOR TUESDAY, BUT THE
REGION SHOULD REMAIN DRY AS THE BETTER MOISTURE SURGE REMAINS
EAST OF THE CWA. BY LATE WEEK, UPPER RIDGING LOOKS TO BUILD IN
YET AGAIN, AND THIS TIME IT IS LIKELY TO BRING HIGH TEMPERATURES
INTO THE UPPER 40S TO EVEN THE 50S FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
AFTERNOONS.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1124 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2026
CURRENTLY VFR AT ALL TERMINALS UNDER CLEAR SKIES WITH GENERALLY
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. HIGH CLOUDS WILL BEGIN OVERSPREADING
THE TERMINALS FROM THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON, WITH A BROKEN TO
OVERCAST CLOUD DECK AROUND 6 KFT LIKELY DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT SOME
PATCHY AND VERY LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE FOR A TIME OVERNIGHT INTO
SUNDAY, PRIMARILY FOR STJ AND FURTHER NORTH NORTHEAST TOWARD
THE IOWA BORDER, BUT FOR NOW HAVE LEFT OUT ANY MENTION. WINDS
SHOULD BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY OVERNIGHT, WITH WINDS INCREASING TO
AROUND 10 KNOTS OR SO BY LATE SUNDAY MORNING.
EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BMW
AVIATION...BMW
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