823
FXUS63 KEAX 312358
AFDEAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
558 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- COLD TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S.
- CHANCE FOR SOME FLURRIES AND/OR LIGHT SNOW TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING. LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION EXPECTED.
- WARMER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY AFTERNOONS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 158 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2026
CURRENT H5 ANALYSIS OVERLAID WITH WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A
CLOSED MID LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN APPALACHIA WITH
RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS, LEADING TO ENHANCED MID LEVEL
NORTH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER OUR REGION IN BETWEEN THE TWO
FEATURES. AT THE SURFACE, A 1042 MB SURFACE HIGH IS CENTERED
OVER THE KANSAS/OKLAHOMA BORDER NORTH OF TULSA, RESULTING IN
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS, MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES (ALBEIT WITH
INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE WEST), AND TEMPERATURES IN THE
MID TEENS TO LOWER 20S AS OF 2 PM.
BY LATER TONIGHT INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH EMBEDDED WITHIN THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT DESCENDS OUT
OF THE NORTH CENTRAL PLAINS AND APPROACHES OUR CWA. THIS WILL
YIELD SOME MODEST ASCENT AND THETA E ADVECTION, WHICH COULD BE
JUST ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SOME FLURRIES OR EVEN SOME LIGHT SNOW
ACROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO THE OVERNIGHT AND MORNING
HOURS OF SUNDAY. GENERALLY SPEAKING, NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED
OUTSIDE OF PERHAPS A DUSTING TO HALF AND INCH (0.5") ACROSS
NORTHERN MISSOURI WHERE THE MOISTURE AND ASCENT WILL BE A BIT
MORE SUPPORTIVE FOR BETTER SNOW. BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON, THE
RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS NUDGES FURTHER EAST JUST ENOUGH TO
BRING IN SOME HIGHER H5 HEIGHTS AND 850 MB TEMPS, WHICH SHOULD
ALLOW FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS TO REACH THE UPPER 30S FOR EASTERN KS
AND WESTERN MO, WITH SUB FREEZING TEMPS HOLDING ON TOWARD
CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN MISSOURI. THE WARMING TREND CONTINUES
INTO MONDAY AS HIGHER MID LEVEL HEIGHTS BUILD IN FROM THE WEST
AS THE PATTERN BECOME MORE ZONAL. MONDAY HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO
REACH THE MID 40S FOR MOST LOCATIONS, WITH EVEN NE MISSOURI
REACHING THE MID TO UPPER 30S.
OVERNIGHT MONDAY INTO TUESDAY, ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS
PROGGED TO DESCEND OUT OF NORTHERN PLAINS AND INTO THE CENTRAL
CONUS. THIS WILL USHER IN COLDER AIR FOR TUESDAY, BUT THE
REGION SHOULD REMAIN DRY AS THE BETTER MOISTURE SURGE REMAINS
EAST OF THE CWA. BY LATE WEEK, UPPER RIDGING LOOKS TO BUILD IN
YET AGAIN, AND THIS TIME IT IS LIKELY TO BRING HIGH TEMPERATURES
INTO THE UPPER 40S TO EVEN THE 50S FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
AFTERNOONS.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 557 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2026
VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED THRU THE PD WITH BKN-OVC HIGH CLOUDS
EXPECTED THRU 04Z-05Z BEFORE OVC MID-LVL CLOUDS BTN 6-10KFT ARE
FCST TO MOV INTO THE TAF SITES. AFT 14Z-15Z CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED
TO SCT AROUND 10KFT. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTH AROUND 5KTS
TO BEGIN THE TAF PD BUT WILL INCR TO 7-12KTS AFT 04Z-05Z. AFT
14Z-15Z WINDS WILL BECOME SW AROUND 10KTS. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHC
FOR LGT SNOW BTN 07Z-11Z HOWEVER, CHANCES ARE TOO LOW FOR
INCLUSION IN THE TAF AT THIS TIME.
EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
DISCUSSION...WILLIAMS
AVIATION...73
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