344
FXUS63 KEAX 012031
AFDEAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
231 PM CST SUN FEB 1 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WARM UP TO SEASONALLY NORMAL, THEN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
POSSIBLE LATER THIS WEEK.
- SOME PASSING SNOW FLURRIES POSSIBLE TUESDAY MORNING. NO
ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 228 PM CST SUN FEB 1 2026
PASSING CLOUDS AND SNOW FLURRIES (ACROSS FAR NORTHERN MO) THIS
MORNING SIGNALED THE START OF A WARMING TREND ACROSS THE REGION.
CLOUDS SLOWLY VACATED THE AREA ALLOWING SOLAR HEATING AND
SOUTHERLY WARM AIR ADVECTION TO ELEVATE TEMPERATURES BACK TOWARD
SEASONAL NORMALS; HOWEVER, SOME LATE CLOUD BUILDING THIS
AFTERNOON, MIGHT KEEP US JUST SHORT OF INITIAL HIGH TEMPERATURE
EXPECTATIONS. LARGE SCALE RIDGING BEGINS TO DOMINATE THE MID-
CONUS WEATHER PATTERN WHICH WORKS BOTH TO KEEP SKIES RELATIVELY
CALM AND TEMPERATURES ON A RELATIVE UPWARD TREND. NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT REGULATES THE WARMING TREND AS COOLER AIR DRAGS DOWN
FROM INTERIOR CANADA. THIS KEEPS HIGHS FROM TRENDING MUCH ABOVE
NORMAL THROUGH MIDWEEK. HOWEVER, TEMPERATURES SETTLING IN THE
UPPER 30S TO 40S IS MUCH NICER THAN THE ARCTIC BLAST WE HAVE
BEEN EXPERIENCING FOR THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS. LOW CLOUDS LOOK TO
BUILD BACK IN OVERNIGHT BELOW THE NOCTURNAL INVERSION WHICH
MIGHT TRAP ENOUGH MOISTURE NEAR THE SURFACE TO CREATE SOME
PATCHY FOG TOMORROW MORNING, ESPECIALLY IN LOW LYING AREAS.
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MIGRATES THROUGH THE FLOW LATE MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY BRINGING WITH IT JUST ENOUGH CVA TO GENERATE SOME ASCENT
WHICH MAY ENCOURAGE SOME SNOW FLURRIES ALONG THE MO/KS BORDER DURING
THE MORNING HOURS OF TUESDAY. LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATIONS ARE
EXPECTED AS DRY AIR CONTINUOUSLY INTRUDES BEHIND THIS WAVE RESULTING IN
LESSENING MOISTURE POTENTIALLY FIZZLING OUT ANY PRECIPITATION THAT
DEVELOPS.
LATER IN THE WEEK, A STRONGER SHORTWAVE ROUNDS THE SYNOPTIC TROUGH
ACROSS EASTERN CANADA. THIS SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO TRANSIT THROUGH
THE CENTRAL PLAINS THURSDAY WHICH LOOKS TO SHIFT THE PATTERN EVER SO
SLIGHTLY, BUT SLIGHTLY ENOUGH TO OPEN UP A RATHER UNIQUE SETUP FOR
WARM AIR ADVECTION FROM THE LEEWARD SIDE OF THE ROCKIES. THIS WAVE
LOOKS TO EFFECTIVELY SHIFT THE AXIS OF NW FLOW FROM INTERIOR CANADA
TO JUST EAST OF THE ROCKIES WHERE AIR OFF THE CASCADES IS
OROGRAPHICALLY DESCENDED, WARMED, AND DRIED BEFORE GETTING USHERED
INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS BY UPPER LEVEL WINDS. TAG TEAM THAT WITH
SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE FLOW SOURCING WARM DRY AIR FROM WEST TX AND
YOU HAVE A POTENTIAL FOR WARMING 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BY THE
END OF THE WEEK. NOW SOME UNCERTAINTY CONTINUES AS NBM ENSEMBLE
SPREADS ARE ABOUT 10 TO 15 DEGREES WITH LOW END GUIDANCE SUGGESTING
HOURS IN THE 40S AND UPPER BOUND GUIDANCE SUGGESTING THE POTENTIAL
FOR NEAR 60 DEGREE HIGHS. MUCH OF THIS UNCERTAINTY IS TIED TO THE
DEPTH OF THE LATE WEEK SHORTWAVE COMBINED WITH THE STRENGTH OF THE
RIDGE WHICH BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST BEHIND THE WAVE. ONE OTHER
ASPECT WE WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
PRECIPITATION AS THIS WAVE FLOWS THROUGH. THE KINEMATIC PRESENTATION
OF LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE, UPPER LEVEL CVA, AND SOMEWHAT SATURATED
VERTICAL PROFILES PAINT A POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION; HOWEVER, THE
CONVERGING 500MB WINDS ALOFT AND EXPECTED RELATIVELY DRY AIR MASSES
MOVING IN FROM THE NORTH AND WEST KEEP THE PREVAILING THOUGHTS OF A
DRY FORECAST AT THIS TIME.
EXTENDED GUIDANCE LOOKS TO SHIFT THE MAIN FLOW OF THE NORTHERLY JET
NORTH OF THE KC REGION WHICH GENERALLY CREATES OPPORTUNITIES FOR
NORMAL TO WARMER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS ECHOED BY THE CPC OUTLOOK.
HOWEVER, EXTENDED DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE DOES MAINTAIN THE GENERAL NW
TO SE ORIENTATION OF FLOW ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD; SO SOME DIPS BACK TOWARD WINTER THERMAL
EXPECTATIONS REMAIN.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1202 PM CST SUN FEB 1 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
WINDS REMAIN GENERALLY OUT OF THE SW SUSTAINED AROUND 10-15
KNOTS WITH INTERMITTENT GUSTS TO 20-25 KNOTS, MAINLY SOUTH OF
THE MO RIVER. WINDS DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET BECOMING LIGHT AND
VARIABLE. CAM GUIDANCE DOES SHOW INCREASING CLOUD COVERAGE WITH
OPPORTUNITIES FOR MVFR CIGS DURING THE OVERNIGHT; WHILE CLOUDS
SHOULD FILL IN, CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH IN MVFR CIGS AT
THIS TIME.
EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
DISCUSSION...PESEL
AVIATION...PESEL
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