038
FXUS63 KEAX 020830
AFDEAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
230 AM CST MON FEB 2 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WARMER TEMPERATURES THIS WEEK. NEAR NORMAL MONDAY - WEDNESDAY,
THEN ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE LATER HALF OF THE WEEK.
- DRY CONDITIONS ARE VERY LIKELY (>85%) FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS,
WITH SOME MINOR EXCEPTIONS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 230 AM CST MON FEB 2 2026
SHORTWAVE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING WILL SPREAD EAST INTO THE MIDDLE
OF THE COUNTRY TODAY, ALLOWING FOR TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO
THE LOWER 40S, WHICH IS SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR. THAT UPPER RIDGING WEAKENS AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES
SOUTHWARD OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST. THAT
SHORTWAVE MAY RESULT IN SOME FLURRIES ACROSS NORTHERN MO LATE
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. AT THIS POINT, CHANCES LOOK
TOO LOW TO CARRY A MENTION, BUT HAVE ADDED SOME ~10% POPS TO
NORTHERN MO. THAT SHORTWAVE WILL INTERACT WITH MOISTURE
STREAMING NORTH FROM THE GULF, AND BRING MORE WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO AREAS WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA.
TEMPERATURES DROP OF A FEW DEGREES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, IN THE
WAKE OF THAT SHORTWAVE, BUT WILL REMAIN CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR. REX BLOCKING THAT HAD EVOLVED OVER THE EASTERN
PACIFIC/ WESTERN US, WILL, AT LEAST PARTIALLY, BREAKDOWN FOR THE
LATER HALF OF THE WEEK. THIS ALLOWS FOR SOME EASTWARD EXPANSION OF
THE RIDGING, WHICH WILL HELP THE AREA WARM UP INTO THE 40S TO 50S
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. ENSEMBLE MEAN 500MB HEIGHTS KEEP THE UPPER
RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CONUS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS
PUTS THE LOCAL AREA WITHIN A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW REGIME. THIS TENDS
TO FAVOR DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE REGION. BUT IT ALSO LEADS TO A FAIR
AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING TEMPERATURES. FOR EXAMPLE, FOR THE
KC AREA, THERE IS 12 DEGREE SPREAD IN HIGH TEMPERATURES BETWEEN THE
25TH AND 75TH PERCENTILES FOR FRIDAY - SUNDAY. THIS INCREASES TO 14-
20 DEGREES FOR THE 10TH TO 90TH PERCENTILES FOR THE SAME TIME
PERIOD. OVERALL, THE FORECAST IS LEANING TOWARD THE WARMER SIDE
OF THIS SPREAD WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S FOR THE
WEEKEND ACROSS EASTERN KS AND WESTERN MO.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1037 PM CST SUN FEB 1 2026
VFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED WITH INCR HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED THRU THE
TAF PD. THE MAIN CONCERN FOR AVIATORS WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR
FOG DEVELOPMENT BTN 10Z-16Z WHICH IS FCST TO REDUCE VIS TO
3SM-5SM (2SM WITH OCNL VIS DROPPING TO 1/4SM AT STJ). WINDS
WILL BE LGT AND VRB THRU 15Z-16Z. AFT 15-16Z WINDS WILL INCR
OUT OF THE ESE/SE BTN 5-10KTS BEFORE BECMG LGT AND VRB AGAIN
AFT 23Z-00Z.
EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
DISCUSSION...CDB
AVIATION...73
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