997
FXUS63 KEAX 021955
AFDEAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
155 PM CST MON FEB 2 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO NORMAL, CLIMBING ABOVE NORMAL MIDDLE TO END
OF THE WEEK
- LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE EARLY TUESDAY MORNING
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 155 PM CST MON FEB 2 2026
MODEST RIDGE AXIS IS PASSING THROUGH THE REGION TODAY GRADUALLY
FORCING THE SURFACE ANTICYCLONE INTO THE WESTERN OHIO RIVER VALLEY.
THIS WILL KEEP CONDITIONS CLEAR FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING.
THERE IS A SHORT-WAVE DISTURBANCE THAT IS ENTERING CENTRAL NEBRASKA
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHEASTWARD.
STRONGER DCVA INTO THE OK/TX PANHANDLE REGION HAS BEEN PROMOTING
SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS, AND SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS ARE STARTING TO
EXTEND EASTWARD TOWARD THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY. CLOUD COVER WILL
INCREASE OVERNIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY MORNING. WEAK LIFT WILL ALSO
OCCUR ESPECIALLY AS THE MID-LEVEL VORT MAXIMA MOVES THROUGH, THAT
COULD BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE LIGHT SNOW ACTIVITY. ACCUMULATION OF
SNOW WILL BE MINIMAL, IF ANYTHING MORE THAN FLURRIES OCCUR. RAP
MODEL SOUNDINGS FROM RUNS EARLY THIS MORNING WERE SHOWING PRIMARILY
LIGHT SNOW ACTIVITY. A FEW RAP RUNS THIS AFTERNOON HAVE REDUCED ICE
INTRODUCTION WHILE LEAVING SATURATION IN A ZONE FOR SUPERCOOLED
DROPLETS, WHICH COULD FAVOR LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE. HOWEVER, LIFT
THROUGH THE SUPERCOOLED LAYER THOUGH REMAINS FAIRLY WEAK, AND THE
DGZ IS NOT OVERLY DRY, INDICATING THAT ICE INTRODUCTION MAY STILL
OCCUR. FOR NOW, HAVE REFRAINED FROM PUTTING FREEZING DRIZZLE
MENTIONS EARLY TUESDAY MORNING IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR AREAS
ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS
HEADING INTO THE EVENING, PAYING CLOSE ATTENTION TO THE MOISTURE
PROFILE AS THIS WAVE MOVES THROUGH NEBRASKA BEFORE ARRIVING IN OUR
AREA. ONCE THE PRIMARY FORCING PASSES BY, NORTHERLY FLOW AND CLOUD
COVER WILL TUESDAY HIGH TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY COOLER.
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WILL FEATURE AN AMPLIFIED RIDGE OVER THE
WESTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS THAT WILL PROVIDE A PROMINENT DAVA REGION
ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS. THIS SHOULD SEND AN 850MB THERMAL RIDGE
AXIS EASTWARD TO HELP OUR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE
THIS WEEK REACH ABOVE NORMAL, POTENTIALLY SEEING HIGHS IN THE LOWER
TO MID 50S, WITH UPPER 40S CLOSER TO THE IOWA STATE LINE. THIS
PATTERN AMPLIFICATION WILL BE BATTLING A HUDSON BAY LOW THAT COULD
STALL H5 HEIGHT RISES THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK, WHICH IF THAT DOES,
MAY KEEP TEMPERATURES COOLER. THIS FEATURE MAY PLAY MORE OF A ROLE
IN TEMPERATURE UNCERTAINTY HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND, AS SOME
SOLUTION ALLOW THE MAIN H5 RIDGE AXIS TO SLIDE EASTWARD, WHILE
OTHERS DEAMPLIFY THE RIDGE AND ALLOW THE HUDSON BAY LOW TO PROVIDE
CVA WHICH WOULD KEEP CONDITIONS COOLER. HOWEVER EVEN IN THE
SOLUTIONS DEPICTING MORE INFLUENCE FROM THE CLOSED-LOW SYSTEM,
SIGNALS FOR PRECIPITATION ARE RATHER WEEK, WITH ENSEMBLE
PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 10 PERCENT FOR MOST OF THE AREA FOR
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION. NEXT WEEKEND, AMONGST NBM MEMBERS, INNER-
QUARTILE SPREAD IS BETWEEN THE LOWER 40S AND UPPER 50S.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1125 AM CST MON FEB 2 2026
HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY EXITS EASTWARD THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING BUT SHOULD KEEP SKIES CLEAR UNTIL THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. CLOUD COVER INCREASES AHEAD OF APPROACHING WAVE
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING BRINGING VFR CEILINGS BY THE EARLY
AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS MAY DROP TO MVFR AFTER 18Z ON TUESDAY.
LIGHT FLURRY ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE IN MISSOURI AND PORTIONS OF
EASTERN KANSAS ON TUESDAY.
EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
DISCUSSION...KRULL
AVIATION...KRULL
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